Da 1-1 (4-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 17, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 3.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.7 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent from production in these same States in March 1999. February revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds, was up 8.2 percent from February 1999. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to the leap year causes February milk production to be up 4.5 percent on a per day basis. The February revision represented a slight decrease of 1 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,634 pounds for March, 49 pounds above March 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 57,000 head more than March 1999 and 4,000 head more than February 2000. January-March Milk Production Up 5.1 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 42.6 billion pounds, 5.1 percent above the January-March period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was 9.19 million head, 58,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,186 4,437 4,637 40,505 42,591 5.1 Apr-Jun : 9,155 4,591 42,029 Jul-Sep : 9,171 4,337 39,771 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,770 1,585 1,634 12,228 12,694 3.8 Apr : 7,720 1,554 11,998 May : 7,733 1,610 12,447 Jun : 7,740 1,516 11,737 Jul : 7,751 1,498 11,610 Aug : 7,755 1,487 11,534 Sep : 7,753 1,445 11,200 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,184 1,494 1,551 13,628 14,246 4.5 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,590 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,190 1,561 1,606 14,270 14,755 3.4 Apr : 9,143 1,524 13,938 May : 9,157 1,579 14,458 Jun : 9,166 1,487 13,633 Jul : 9,167 1,467 13,444 Aug : 9,174 1,456 13,357 Sep : 9,171 1,414 12,970 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 137 2,135 2,125 282 291 3.2 CA : 1,452 1,500 1,795 1,815 2,606 2,723 4.5 FL : 159 157 1,540 1,560 245 245 ID : 309 334 1,660 1,730 513 578 12.7 IL : 125 120 1,480 1,580 185 190 2.7 IN : 136 143 1,380 1,490 188 213 13.3 IA : 218 215 1,540 1,610 336 346 3.0 KY : 134 130 1,110 1,195 149 155 4.0 MI : 296 291 1,565 1,625 463 473 2.2 MN : 545 540 1,550 1,585 845 856 1.3 MO : 161 156 1,310 1,350 211 211 NM : 231 240 1,770 1,900 409 456 11.5 NY : 700 700 1,480 1,520 1,036 1,064 2.7 OH : 260 260 1,450 1,495 377 389 3.2 PA : 614 618 1,565 1,620 961 1,001 4.2 TX : 342 350 1,625 1,640 556 574 3.2 VT : 162 160 1,440 1,520 233 243 4.3 VA : 122 119 1,335 1,440 163 171 4.9 WA : 249 246 1,885 1,940 469 477 1.7 WI : 1,366 1,354 1,465 1,505 2,001 2,038 1.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,713 7,770 1,585 1,634 12,228 12,694 3.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 137 1,835 1,935 242 265 9.5 CA : 1,447 1,496 1,555 1,710 2,250 2,558 13.7 FL : 158 157 1,365 1,410 216 221 2.3 ID : 306 332 1,490 1,610 456 535 17.3 IL : 125 120 1,310 1,480 164 178 8.5 IN : 136 141 1,300 1,380 177 195 10.2 IA : 219 215 1,380 1,500 302 323 7.0 KY : 135 130 985 1,085 133 141 6.0 MI : 292 295 1,405 1,500 410 443 8.0 MN : 545 540 1,385 1,465 755 791 4.8 MO : 162 157 1,140 1,220 185 192 3.8 NM : 223 238 1,615 1,730 360 412 14.4 NY : 702 700 1,320 1,370 927 959 3.5 OH : 260 259 1,310 1,400 341 363 6.5 PA : 615 617 1,375 1,475 846 910 7.6 TX : 341 350 1,430 1,470 488 515 5.5 VT : 162 160 1,290 1,405 209 225 7.7 VA : 122 120 1,205 1,330 147 160 8.8 WA : 248 246 1,695 1,790 420 440 4.8 WI : 1,366 1,356 1,300 1,375 1,776 1,865 5.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 1998-1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 : 1999 : 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 27 92 90 -2.2 AK : 0.8 0.9 3.51 3.03 -13.7 AZ : 132 135 676 717 6.1 AR : 42 42 120 125 4.2 CA : 1,435 1,484 7,033 7,791 10.8 CO : 83 83 421 441 4.8 CT : 29 28 128 124 -3.1 DE : 11.0 11.0 37.5 42.5 13.3 FL : 158 156 548 540 -1.5 GA : 90 88 343 344 0.3 HI : 8.8 8.6 29.5 26.3 -10.8 ID : 299 329 1,473 1,698 15.3 IL : 126 121 517 496 -4.1 IN : 137 137 543 541 -0.4 IA : 220 215 950 939 -1.2 KS : 83 87 325 360 10.8 KY : 136 131 404 404 LA : 63 61 176 165 -6.3 ME : 42 41 166 167 0.6 MD : 86 85 324 345 6.5 MA : 25 24 106 102 -3.8 MI : 298 297 1,326 1,349 1.7 MN : 545 543 2,300 2,322 1.0 MS : 41 36 132 129 -2.3 MO : 166 158 573 548 -4.4 MT : 18 18 73 76 4.1 NE : 70 75 266 296 11.3 NV : 26 25 126 123 -2.4 NH : 20 19 80 78 -2.5 NJ : 19 16 70 64 -8.6 NM : 218 236 1,093 1,194 9.2 NY : 702 700 2,889 2,940 1.8 NC : 73 73 303 299 -1.3 ND : 50 49 172 167 -2.9 OH : 262 259 1,068 1,095 2.5 OK : 92 92 304 313 3.0 OR : 88 89 394 414 5.1 PA : 620 618 2,623 2,689 2.5 RI : 2.1 1.9 8.3 7.2 -13.3 SC : 24 23 88 89 1.1 SD : 102 102 366 385 5.2 TN : 101 95 357 345 -3.4 TX : 341 348 1,345 1,370 1.9 UT : 93 93 381 405 6.3 VT : 161 159 656 663 1.1 VA : 123 121 449 486 8.2 WA : 247 245 1,326 1,368 3.2 WV : 18 18 68 69 1.5 WI : 1,368 1,361 5,630 5,642 0.2 WY : 5.9 6.0 19.5 19.8 1.5 : US 3/ : 9,128 9,170 38,901 40,406 3.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 27 106 106 AK : 0.9 0.9 3.47 2.95 -15.0 AZ : 132 137 778 825 6.0 AR : 42 42 135 141 4.4 CA : 1,448 1,496 7,296 7,989 9.5 CO : 83 84 433 459 6.0 CT : 29 27 134 129 -3.7 DE : 11.0 11.0 43.9 45.0 2.5 FL : 158 157 685 691 0.9 GA : 90 88 400 402 0.5 HI : 8.6 8.5 30.6 27.9 -8.8 ID : 306 333 1,474 1,687 14.5 IL : 125 120 528 548 3.8 IN : 136 141 551 606 10.0 IA : 219 215 971 1,003 3.3 KS : 85 88 350 375 7.1 KY : 135 130 424 443 4.5 LA : 62 61 209 212 1.4 ME : 42 40 173 168 -2.9 MD : 86 85 335 337 0.6 MA : 25 24 105 103 -1.9 MI : 293 295 1,315 1,394 6.0 MN : 545 540 2,420 2,481 2.5 MS : 39 36 160 162 1.3 MO : 162 157 598 599 0.2 MT : 18 18 74 77 4.1 NE : 72 75 277 309 11.6 NV : 25 25 118 120 1.7 NH : 19 19 81 82 1.2 NJ : 18 16 74 64 -13.5 NM : 225 238 1,152 1,290 12.0 NY : 701 700 2,967 3,038 2.4 NC : 73 72 317 316 -0.3 ND : 50 50 176 177 0.6 OH : 260 259 1,090 1,133 3.9 OK : 92 92 325 331 1.8 OR : 88 90 403 422 4.7 PA : 615 617 2,717 2,849 4.9 RI : 2.0 1.9 7.9 7.8 -1.3 SC : 24 23 103 102 -1.0 SD : 102 102 367 399 8.7 TN : 100 96 379 374 -1.3 TX : 341 350 1,547 1,614 4.3 UT : 91 94 384 410 6.8 VT : 162 160 670 706 5.4 VA : 122 120 468 502 7.3 WA : 248 246 1,347 1,384 2.7 WV : 18 17 71 70 -1.4 WI : 1,367 1,356 5,713 5,859 2.6 WY : 5.9 6.0 18.9 19.8 4.8 : US 3/ : 9,128 9,186 40,505 42,591 5.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.19 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.8 341 149 34 315 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 184 83 2 187 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 16, 2000. 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