Da 1-1 (5-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 16, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. April Milk Production Up 3.7 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 3.7 percent from production in these same States in April 1999. March revised production, at 12.7 billion pounds was up 3.7 percent from March 1999. The March revision represented a decrease of 0.1 percent or 15 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,598 pounds for April, 44 pounds above April 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.79 million head, 66,000 head more than April 1999 and 12,000 head more than March 2000. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,634 40,505 42,576 5.1 Apr-Jun : 9,155 4,591 42,029 Jul-Sep : 9,171 4,337 39,771 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,786 1,554 1,598 11,998 12,441 3.7 May : 7,733 1,610 12,447 Jun : 7,740 1,516 11,737 Jul : 7,751 1,498 11,610 Aug : 7,755 1,487 11,534 Sep : 7,753 1,445 11,200 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,184 1,494 1,551 13,628 14,246 4.5 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,590 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,603 14,270 14,740 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,207 1,524 1,570 13,938 14,451 3.7 May : 9,157 1,579 14,458 Jun : 9,166 1,487 13,633 Jul : 9,167 1,467 13,444 Aug : 9,174 1,456 13,357 Sep : 9,171 1,414 12,970 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 138 2,075 2,080 274 287 4.7 CA : 1,456 1,507 1,770 1,815 2,577 2,735 6.1 FL : 160 158 1,435 1,455 230 230 ID : 312 337 1,640 1,700 512 573 11.9 IL : 124 120 1,430 1,520 177 182 2.8 IN : 136 146 1,360 1,440 185 210 13.5 IA : 218 215 1,500 1,560 327 335 2.4 KY : 134 133 1,110 1,220 149 162 8.7 MI : 299 291 1,530 1,570 457 457 MN : 545 540 1,505 1,530 820 826 0.7 MO : 160 157 1,290 1,330 206 209 1.5 NM : 231 241 1,740 1,835 402 442 10.0 NY : 700 696 1,460 1,480 1,022 1,030 0.8 OH : 260 262 1,420 1,490 369 390 5.7 PA : 615 615 1,545 1,590 950 978 2.9 TX : 342 350 1,545 1,535 528 537 1.7 VT : 161 160 1,420 1,495 229 239 4.4 VA : 122 120 1,320 1,425 161 171 6.2 WA : 248 246 1,870 1,915 464 471 1.5 WI : 1,365 1,354 1,435 1,460 1,959 1,977 0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,720 7,786 1,554 1,598 11,998 12,441 3.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 132 137 2,135 2,115 282 290 2.8 CA : 1,452 1,501 1,795 1,825 2,606 2,739 5.1 FL : 159 157 1,540 1,530 245 240 -2.0 ID : 309 334 1,660 1,720 513 574 11.9 IL : 125 120 1,480 1,580 185 190 2.7 IN : 136 143 1,380 1,490 188 213 13.3 IA : 218 215 1,540 1,610 336 346 3.0 KY : 134 132 1,110 1,210 149 160 7.4 MI : 296 292 1,565 1,630 463 476 2.8 MN : 545 540 1,550 1,585 845 856 1.3 MO : 161 156 1,310 1,350 211 211 NM : 231 240 1,770 1,890 409 454 11.0 NY : 700 698 1,480 1,495 1,036 1,044 0.8 OH : 260 261 1,450 1,535 377 401 6.4 PA : 614 618 1,565 1,620 961 1,001 4.2 TX : 342 350 1,625 1,640 556 574 3.2 VT : 162 160 1,440 1,515 233 242 3.9 VA : 122 120 1,335 1,450 163 174 6.7 WA : 249 246 1,885 1,940 469 477 1.7 WI : 1,366 1,354 1,465 1,490 2,001 2,017 0.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.19 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.8 341 149 34 315 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 184 83 2 187 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 16, 2000. 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