Da 1-1 (7-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 17, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. June Milk Production Up 2.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 12.1 billion pounds, up 2.8 percent from production in these same States in June 1999. The May revision represented a decrease of 0.2 percent or 28 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,546 pounds for June, 30 pounds above June 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.81 million head, 65,000 head more than June 1999 and 10,000 head more than May 2000. April-June Milk Production Up 2.6 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 43.1 billion pounds, 2.6 percent above the April-June period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the April-June quarter was 9.21 million head, 58,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,636 40,505 42,593 5.2 Apr-Jun : 9,155 9,213 4,591 4,682 42,029 43,137 2.6 Jul-Sep : 9,171 4,337 39,771 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 3.3 May : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 Jun : 7,740 7,805 1,516 1,546 11,737 12,070 2.8 Jul : 7,751 1,498 11,610 Aug : 7,755 1,487 11,534 Sep : 7,753 1,445 11,200 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,183 1,494 1,552 13,628 14,252 4.6 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,596 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,604 14,270 14,745 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,202 1,524 1,562 13,938 14,373 3.1 May : 9,157 9,213 1,579 1,603 14,458 14,772 2.2 Jun : 9,166 9,224 1,487 1,517 13,633 13,992 2.6 Jul : 9,167 1,467 13,444 Aug : 9,174 1,456 13,357 Sep : 9,171 1,414 12,970 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 134 138 1,830 1,890 245 261 6.5 CA : 1,464 1,521 1,710 1,755 2,503 2,669 6.6 FL : 159 158 1,290 1,320 205 209 2.0 ID : 317 349 1,690 1,760 536 614 14.6 IL : 122 120 1,420 1,440 173 173 IN : 136 148 1,340 1,420 182 210 15.4 IA : 217 215 1,460 1,530 317 329 3.8 KY : 133 132 1,000 1,030 133 136 2.3 MI : 303 292 1,530 1,560 464 456 -1.7 MN : 545 535 1,475 1,495 804 800 -0.5 MO : 159 155 1,140 1,200 181 186 2.8 NM : 234 249 1,710 1,790 400 446 11.5 NY : 702 690 1,460 1,460 1,025 1,007 -1.8 OH : 260 262 1,450 1,470 377 385 2.1 PA : 614 617 1,495 1,495 918 922 0.4 TX : 346 350 1,330 1,340 460 469 2.0 VT : 159 160 1,445 1,460 230 234 1.7 VA : 121 120 1,240 1,265 150 152 1.3 WA : 247 247 1,880 1,910 464 472 1.7 WI : 1,368 1,347 1,440 1,440 1,970 1,940 -1.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,740 7,805 1,516 1,546 11,737 12,070 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 134 138 2,060 2,095 276 289 4.7 CA : 1,459 1,513 1,825 1,850 2,663 2,799 5.1 FL : 160 158 1,400 1,460 224 231 3.1 ID : 314 344 1,710 1,800 537 619 15.3 IL : 123 120 1,490 1,550 183 186 1.6 IN : 136 147 1,445 1,480 197 218 10.7 IA : 217 215 1,550 1,610 336 346 3.0 KY : 133 133 1,120 1,130 149 150 0.7 MI : 303 291 1,600 1,610 485 469 -3.3 MN : 545 540 1,545 1,555 842 840 -0.2 MO : 160 156 1,300 1,320 208 206 -1.0 NM : 232 246 1,805 1,910 419 470 12.2 NY : 702 690 1,530 1,530 1,074 1,056 -1.7 OH : 260 262 1,530 1,550 398 406 2.0 PA : 615 615 1,605 1,615 987 993 0.6 TX : 345 350 1,515 1,520 523 532 1.7 VT : 160 160 1,505 1,530 241 245 1.7 VA : 122 120 1,345 1,390 164 167 1.8 WA : 247 247 1,935 1,980 478 489 2.3 WI : 1,366 1,350 1,510 1,505 2,063 2,032 -1.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised January-March, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 26 106 103 -2.8 AK : 0.9 0.9 3.47 2.95 -15.0 AZ : 132 137 778 824 5.9 AR : 42 42 135 141 4.4 CA : 1,448 1,496 7,296 8,005 9.7 CO : 83 85 433 466 7.6 CT : 29 27 134 129 -3.7 DE : 11.0 11.0 43.9 45.0 2.5 FL : 158 157 685 686 0.1 GA : 90 88 400 402 0.5 HI : 8.6 8.5 30.6 27.9 -8.8 ID : 306 333 1,474 1,683 14.2 IL : 125 120 528 548 3.8 IN : 136 141 551 606 10.0 IA : 219 215 971 1,003 3.3 KS : 85 88 350 375 7.1 KY : 135 131 424 448 5.7 LA : 62 61 209 212 1.4 ME : 42 40 173 171 -1.2 MD : 86 85 335 337 0.6 MA : 25 24 105 103 -1.9 MI : 293 295 1,315 1,397 6.2 MN : 545 540 2,420 2,481 2.5 MS : 39 36 160 162 1.3 MO : 162 157 598 599 0.2 MT : 18 18 74 77 4.1 NE : 72 75 277 309 11.6 NV : 25 25 118 120 1.7 NH : 19 19 81 81 NJ : 18 16 74 69 -6.8 NM : 225 238 1,152 1,288 11.8 NY : 701 699 2,967 3,018 1.7 NC : 73 72 317 316 -0.3 ND : 50 50 176 177 0.6 OH : 260 260 1,090 1,145 5.0 OK : 92 92 325 331 1.8 OR : 88 90 403 422 4.7 PA : 615 617 2,717 2,849 4.9 RI : 2.0 1.9 7.9 7.7 -2.5 SC : 24 23 103 102 -1.0 SD : 102 102 367 399 8.7 TN : 100 96 379 380 0.3 TX : 341 350 1,547 1,614 4.3 UT : 91 94 384 410 6.8 VT : 162 160 670 705 5.2 VA : 122 120 468 505 7.9 WA : 248 246 1,347 1,384 2.7 WV : 18 17 71 70 -1.4 WI : 1,367 1,356 5,713 5,838 2.2 WY : 5.9 6.0 18.9 19.8 4.8 : US 3/ : 9,128 9,187 40,505 42,593 5.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary April-June, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 25 100 92 -8.0 AK : 1.0 0.9 3.60 3.41 -5.3 AZ : 133 138 795 837 5.3 AR : 42 42 138 142 2.9 CA : 1,460 1,514 7,743 8,196 5.9 CO : 82 85 420 470 11.9 CT : 29 26 136 123 -9.6 DE : 11.0 11.0 43.6 43.8 0.5 FL : 160 158 659 672 2.0 GA : 90 88 392 384 -2.0 HI : 8.5 8.3 32.5 32.0 -1.5 ID : 314 344 1,585 1,813 14.4 IL : 123 120 533 541 1.5 IN : 136 147 564 638 13.1 IA : 217 215 980 1,010 3.1 KS : 86 89 360 380 5.6 KY : 133 133 431 444 3.0 LA : 61 59 192 189 -1.6 ME : 42 40 180 171 -5.0 MD : 85 84 353 325 -7.9 MA : 25 24 109 103 -5.5 MI : 302 291 1,406 1,382 -1.7 MN : 545 538 2,466 2,466 MS : 38 36 149 146 -2.0 MO : 160 156 595 601 1.0 MT : 18 18 77 79 2.6 NE : 73 75 285 315 10.5 NV : 25 25 128 123 -3.9 NH : 19 19 83 81 -2.4 NJ : 18 16 74 69 -6.8 NM : 232 245 1,221 1,358 11.2 NY : 701 692 3,121 3,078 -1.4 NC : 73 72 311 303 -2.6 ND : 49 51 178 190 6.7 OH : 260 262 1,144 1,181 3.2 OK : 92 91 317 331 4.4 OR : 89 90 425 430 1.2 PA : 615 616 2,855 2,893 1.3 RI : 2.0 1.8 8.2 7.6 -7.3 SC : 24 23 98 98 SD : 102 103 380 413 8.7 TN : 98 95 373 365 -2.1 TX : 344 350 1,511 1,538 1.8 UT : 92 96 412 428 3.9 VT : 160 160 700 715 2.1 VA : 122 120 475 488 2.7 WA : 247 247 1,406 1,432 1.8 WV : 18 17 69 67 -2.9 WI : 1,366 1,350 5,992 5,929 -1.1 WY : 5.9 5.9 20.1 20.7 3.0 : US 3/ : 9,155 9,213 42,029 43,137 2.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.21 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 345 142 3 264 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 193 86 4 188 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on August 16, 2000. 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