Da 1-1 (8-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 16, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. July Milk Production Up 5.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during July totaled 12.2 billion pounds, up 5.0 percent from production in these same States in July 1999. This increase is magnified by unusually hot temperatures during July 1999 which lowered milk production per cow. June revised production, at 12.1 billion pounds was up 2.9 percent from June 1999. The June revision represented a increase of 0.1 percent or 13 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,557 pounds for July, 59 pounds above July 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.83 million head, 83,000 head more than July 1999 and 24,000 head more than June 2000. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,636 40,505 42,593 5.2 Apr-Jun : 9,155 9,215 4,591 4,683 42,029 43,150 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,171 4,337 39,771 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 3.3 May : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 Jun : 7,740 7,810 1,516 1,547 11,737 12,083 2.9 Jul : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,557 11,610 12,195 5.0 Aug : 7,755 1,487 11,534 Sep : 7,753 1,445 11,200 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,183 1,494 1,552 13,628 14,252 4.6 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,596 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,604 14,270 14,745 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,202 1,524 1,562 13,938 14,373 3.1 May : 9,157 9,213 1,579 1,603 14,458 14,771 2.2 Jun : 9,166 9,229 1,487 1,518 13,633 14,006 2.7 Jul : 9,167 9,257 1,467 1,522 13,444 14,089 4.8 Aug : 9,174 1,456 13,357 Sep : 9,171 1,414 12,970 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,620 1,735 219 243 11.0 CA : 1,467 1,527 1,715 1,825 2,516 2,787 10.8 FL : 159 157 1,190 1,245 189 195 3.2 ID : 322 358 1,770 1,830 570 655 14.9 IL : 122 120 1,310 1,430 160 172 7.5 IN : 136 151 1,325 1,450 180 219 21.7 IA : 216 215 1,430 1,540 309 331 7.1 KY : 132 133 985 1,000 130 133 2.3 MI : 307 298 1,555 1,630 477 486 1.9 MN : 545 535 1,420 1,455 774 778 0.5 MO : 157 154 1,020 1,210 160 186 16.3 NM : 235 252 1,690 1,730 397 436 9.8 NY : 702 690 1,460 1,460 1,025 1,007 -1.8 OH : 260 263 1,460 1,475 380 388 2.1 PA : 614 619 1,470 1,500 903 929 2.9 TX : 346 348 1,225 1,225 424 426 0.5 VT : 159 160 1,440 1,465 229 234 2.2 VA : 120 120 1,185 1,265 142 152 7.0 WA : 249 247 1,940 1,965 483 485 0.4 WI : 1,368 1,347 1,420 1,450 1,943 1,953 0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,557 11,610 12,195 5.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 134 138 1,830 1,890 245 261 6.5 CA : 1,464 1,521 1,710 1,755 2,503 2,669 6.6 FL : 159 158 1,290 1,330 205 210 2.4 ID : 317 351 1,690 1,760 536 618 15.3 IL : 122 120 1,420 1,440 173 173 IN : 136 148 1,340 1,420 182 210 15.4 IA : 217 215 1,460 1,530 317 329 3.8 KY : 133 132 1,000 1,010 133 133 MI : 303 295 1,530 1,580 464 466 0.4 MN : 545 535 1,475 1,495 804 800 -0.5 MO : 159 155 1,140 1,200 181 186 2.8 NM : 234 249 1,710 1,790 400 446 11.5 NY : 702 690 1,460 1,460 1,025 1,007 -1.8 OH : 260 262 1,450 1,470 377 385 2.1 PA : 614 617 1,495 1,495 918 922 0.4 TX : 346 350 1,330 1,340 460 469 2.0 VT : 159 160 1,445 1,470 230 235 2.2 VA : 121 120 1,240 1,265 150 152 1.3 WA : 247 247 1,880 1,910 464 472 1.7 WI : 1,368 1,347 1,440 1,440 1,970 1,940 -1.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,740 7,810 1,516 1,547 11,737 12,083 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.22 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 345 142 3 264 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 194 86 4 188 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. on September 15, 2000. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION There are two options for subscribing via e-mail. All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 1) Starting with the NASS Home Page at http://www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. 2) If you do NOT have Internet access, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. USDA to Hold Public Forum October 16, 2000 Holiday Inn Mart Plaza Chicago, Illinois The National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for Data Users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs, and to seek comments and input from data users. The other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau and The National Weather Service will also be included in the meeting. For registration details, see the NASS home page at http://www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Karlyn McCutcheon (NASS) at (202) 690-8141 or at hq_dapp@nass.usda.gov