Da 1-1 (9-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 15, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 4.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 12.0 billion pounds, up 4.0 percent from production in these same States in August 1999. July revised production, at 12.2 billion pounds was up 5.4 percent from July 1999. The July revision represented an increase of 0.3 percent or 37 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,530 pounds for August, 43 pounds above August 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.84 million head, 89,000 head more than August 1999 and 10,000 head more than July 2000. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,636 40,505 42,593 5.2 Apr-Jun : 9,155 9,215 4,591 4,683 42,029 43,150 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,171 4,337 39,771 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 3.3 May : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 Jun : 7,740 7,810 1,516 1,547 11,737 12,083 2.9 Jul : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,561 11,610 12,232 5.4 Aug : 7,755 7,844 1,487 1,530 11,534 11,998 4.0 Sep : 7,753 1,445 11,200 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,183 1,494 1,552 13,628 14,252 4.6 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,596 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,604 14,270 14,745 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,202 1,524 1,562 13,938 14,373 3.1 May : 9,157 9,213 1,579 1,603 14,458 14,771 2.2 Jun : 9,166 9,229 1,487 1,518 13,633 14,006 2.7 Jul : 9,167 9,254 1,467 1,528 13,444 14,143 5.2 Aug : 9,174 9,265 1,456 1,496 13,357 13,865 3.8 Sep : 9,171 1,414 12,970 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,580 1,555 213 218 2.3 CA : 1,472 1,533 1,770 1,760 2,605 2,698 3.6 FL : 158 156 1,045 1,080 165 168 1.8 ID : 324 357 1,770 1,810 573 646 12.7 IL : 121 120 1,280 1,400 155 168 8.4 IN : 136 151 1,300 1,420 177 214 20.9 IA : 216 215 1,400 1,510 302 325 7.6 KY : 132 133 975 1,030 129 137 6.2 MI : 303 301 1,530 1,600 464 482 3.9 MN : 550 530 1,385 1,425 762 755 -0.9 MO : 157 153 1,000 1,130 157 173 10.2 NM : 235 255 1,635 1,730 384 441 14.8 NY : 702 690 1,450 1,470 1,018 1,014 -0.4 OH : 259 263 1,440 1,455 373 383 2.7 PA : 615 619 1,455 1,485 895 919 2.7 TX : 346 348 1,095 1,185 379 412 8.7 VT : 160 161 1,430 1,470 229 237 3.5 VA : 121 120 1,280 1,300 155 156 0.6 WA : 247 247 1,915 1,935 473 478 1.1 WI : 1,366 1,352 1,410 1,460 1,926 1,974 2.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,755 7,844 1,487 1,530 11,534 11,998 4.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,620 1,735 219 243 11.0 CA : 1,467 1,527 1,715 1,825 2,516 2,787 10.8 FL : 159 157 1,190 1,210 189 190 0.5 ID : 322 355 1,770 1,820 570 646 13.3 IL : 122 120 1,310 1,430 160 172 7.5 IN : 136 151 1,325 1,450 180 219 21.7 IA : 216 215 1,430 1,540 309 331 7.1 KY : 132 133 985 1,025 130 136 4.6 MI : 307 298 1,555 1,630 477 486 1.9 MN : 545 535 1,420 1,455 774 778 0.5 MO : 157 154 1,020 1,210 160 186 16.3 NM : 235 252 1,690 1,730 397 436 9.8 NY : 702 690 1,460 1,480 1,025 1,021 -0.4 OH : 260 263 1,460 1,475 380 388 2.1 PA : 614 619 1,470 1,500 903 929 2.9 TX : 346 348 1,225 1,225 424 426 0.5 VT : 159 160 1,440 1,475 229 236 3.1 VA : 120 120 1,185 1,265 142 152 7.0 WA : 249 247 1,940 1,965 483 485 0.4 WI : 1,368 1,350 1,420 1,470 1,943 1,985 2.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,561 11,610 12,232 5.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.22 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.1 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 345 142 3 264 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.1 194 86 4 188 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. on October 16, 2000. 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