Da 1-1 (10-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 16, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Up 2.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 11.5 billion pounds, up 2.8 percent from production in these same States in September 1999. The August revision represented a decrease of 0.3 percent or 32 million pounds from last months preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,467 pounds for September, 22 pounds above September 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.85 million head, 98,000 head more than September 1999 and 11,000 head more than August 2000. July-September Milk Production Up 4.0 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 41.3 billion pounds, 4.0 percent above the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.25 million head, 81,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,636 40,505 42,593 5.2 Apr-Jun : 9,155 9,217 4,591 4,684 42,029 43,171 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,171 9,252 4,337 4,469 39,771 41,348 4.0 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 3.3 May : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 Jun : 7,740 7,810 1,516 1,547 11,737 12,083 2.9 Jul : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,561 11,610 12,232 5.4 Aug : 7,755 7,840 1,487 1,526 11,534 11,966 3.7 Sep : 7,753 7,851 1,445 1,467 11,200 11,515 2.8 Oct : 7,746 1,491 11,549 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,183 1,494 1,552 13,628 14,252 4.6 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,596 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,604 14,270 14,745 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,204 1,524 1,562 13,938 14,380 3.2 May : 9,157 9,215 1,579 1,604 14,458 14,778 2.2 Jun : 9,166 9,231 1,487 1,518 13,633 14,013 2.8 Jul : 9,167 9,244 1,467 1,532 13,444 14,162 5.3 Aug : 9,174 9,250 1,456 1,498 13,357 13,854 3.7 Sep : 9,171 9,263 1,414 1,439 12,970 13,332 2.8 Oct : 9,162 1,464 13,412 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,550 1,520 209 213 1.9 CA : 1,476 1,539 1,710 1,685 2,524 2,593 2.7 FL : 157 157 1,020 1,070 160 168 5.0 ID : 325 356 1,700 1,720 553 612 10.7 IL : 121 120 1,300 1,350 157 162 3.2 IN : 135 150 1,275 1,350 172 203 18.0 IA : 216 215 1,395 1,450 301 312 3.7 KY : 132 132 960 985 127 130 2.4 MI : 299 303 1,485 1,525 444 462 4.1 MN : 550 530 1,335 1,380 734 731 -0.4 MO : 157 153 1,030 1,080 162 165 1.9 NM : 235 258 1,605 1,660 377 428 13.5 NY : 702 690 1,380 1,400 969 966 -0.3 OH : 259 264 1,400 1,420 363 375 3.3 PA : 616 619 1,415 1,420 872 879 0.8 TX : 346 346 1,125 1,130 389 391 0.5 VT : 160 160 1,380 1,410 221 226 2.3 VA : 121 120 1,265 1,240 153 149 -2.6 WA : 247 247 1,855 1,850 458 457 -0.2 WI : 1,364 1,352 1,360 1,400 1,855 1,893 2.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,753 7,851 1,445 1,467 11,200 11,515 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,580 1,555 213 218 2.3 CA : 1,472 1,533 1,770 1,750 2,605 2,683 3.0 FL : 158 156 1,045 1,120 165 175 6.1 ID : 324 355 1,770 1,790 573 635 10.8 IL : 121 120 1,280 1,400 155 168 8.4 IN : 136 151 1,300 1,420 177 214 20.9 IA : 216 215 1,400 1,510 302 325 7.6 KY : 132 132 975 1,015 129 134 3.9 MI : 303 301 1,530 1,600 464 482 3.9 MN : 550 530 1,385 1,435 762 761 -0.1 MO : 157 153 1,000 1,130 157 173 10.2 NM : 235 255 1,635 1,730 384 441 14.8 NY : 702 690 1,450 1,470 1,018 1,014 -0.4 OH : 259 263 1,440 1,455 373 383 2.7 PA : 615 619 1,455 1,485 895 919 2.7 TX : 346 348 1,095 1,185 379 412 8.7 VT : 160 160 1,430 1,455 229 233 1.7 VA : 121 120 1,280 1,250 155 150 -3.2 WA : 247 247 1,915 1,940 473 479 1.3 WI : 1,366 1,352 1,410 1,455 1,926 1,967 2.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,755 7,840 1,487 1,526 11,534 11,966 3.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 25 100 92 -8.0 AK : 1.0 0.9 3.60 3.41 -5.3 AZ : 133 138 795 837 5.3 AR : 42 42 138 142 2.9 CA : 1,460 1,514 7,743 8,196 5.9 CO : 82 88 420 488 16.2 CT : 29 26 136 122 -10.3 DE : 11.0 11.0 43.6 43.8 0.5 FL : 160 158 659 673 2.1 GA : 90 88 392 384 -2.0 HI : 8.5 8.3 32.5 32.0 -1.5 ID : 314 345 1,585 1,817 14.6 IL : 123 120 533 541 1.5 IN : 136 147 564 638 13.1 IA : 217 215 980 1,010 3.1 KS : 86 89 360 380 5.6 KY : 133 133 431 441 2.3 LA : 61 59 192 189 -1.6 ME : 42 40 180 172 -4.4 MD : 85 84 353 332 -5.9 MA : 25 23 109 102 -6.4 MI : 302 292 1,406 1,392 -1.0 MN : 545 538 2,466 2,466 MS : 38 36 149 144 -3.4 MO : 160 156 595 601 1.0 MT : 18 18 77 79 2.6 NE : 73 75 285 315 10.5 NV : 25 25 128 123 -3.9 NH : 19 19 83 81 -2.4 NJ : 18 16 74 69 -6.8 NM : 232 245 1,221 1,358 11.2 NY : 701 692 3,121 3,078 -1.4 NC : 73 72 311 303 -2.6 ND : 49 51 178 190 6.7 OH : 260 262 1,144 1,181 3.2 OK : 92 91 317 331 4.4 OR : 89 90 425 430 1.2 PA : 615 616 2,855 2,893 1.3 RI : 2.0 1.8 8.2 7.5 -8.5 SC : 24 23 98 98 SD : 102 103 380 413 8.7 TN : 98 95 373 365 -2.1 TX : 344 350 1,511 1,538 1.8 UT : 92 96 412 428 3.9 VT : 160 160 700 716 2.3 VA : 122 120 475 488 2.7 WA : 247 247 1,406 1,432 1.8 WV : 18 17 69 67 -2.9 WI : 1,366 1,350 5,992 5,929 -1.1 WY : 5.9 5.8 20.1 20.3 1.0 : US 3/ : 9,155 9,217 42,029 43,171 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 25 78 72 -7.7 AK : 1.0 0.9 3.48 3.28 -5.7 AZ : 135 140 641 674 5.1 AR : 42 42 122 120 -1.6 CA : 1,472 1,533 7,645 8,063 5.5 CO : 83 89 434 495 14.1 CT : 28 26 126 117 -7.1 DE : 11.0 11.0 41.0 42.7 4.1 FL : 158 157 514 533 3.7 GA : 88 87 313 320 2.2 HI : 8.6 8.0 30.3 30.4 0.3 ID : 324 355 1,696 1,893 11.6 IL : 121 120 472 502 6.4 IN : 136 151 529 636 20.2 IA : 216 215 912 968 6.1 KS : 86 89 325 350 7.7 KY : 132 132 386 400 3.6 LA : 61 57 145 143 -1.4 ME : 41 40 173 169 -2.3 MD : 85 83 332 325 -2.1 MA : 24 22 104 97 -6.7 MI : 303 301 1,385 1,430 3.2 MN : 548 532 2,270 2,270 MS : 37 35 114 112 -1.8 MO : 157 153 479 524 9.4 MT : 18 18 76 78 2.6 NE : 74 76 281 318 13.2 NV : 25 25 128 128 NH : 19 18 79 76 -3.8 NJ : 17 16 68 65 -4.4 NM : 235 255 1,158 1,305 12.7 NY : 702 690 3,012 3,001 -0.4 NC : 73 71 289 282 -2.4 ND : 48 51 168 188 11.9 OH : 259 263 1,116 1,146 2.7 OK : 92 91 294 319 8.5 OR : 89 90 423 428 1.2 PA : 615 619 2,670 2,727 2.1 RI : 2.0 1.8 7.7 7.1 -7.8 SC : 23 22 79 85 7.6 SD : 102 102 375 413 10.1 TN : 95 94 320 320 TX : 346 347 1,192 1,229 3.1 UT : 93 98 412 448 8.7 VT : 160 160 679 695 2.4 VA : 121 120 450 451 0.2 WA : 248 247 1,414 1,421 0.5 WV : 18 17 66 64 -3.0 WI : 1,366 1,351 5,724 5,845 2.1 WY : 6.0 5.5 21.0 19.3 -8.1 : US 3/ : 9,171 9,252 39,771 41,348 4.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.3 538 245 29 380 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.2 204 94 5 179 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. on November 15, 2000. 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