Da 1-1 (11-00) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 15, 2000, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. October Milk Production Up 2.9 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during October totaled 11.9 billion pounds, up 2.9 percent from production in these same States in October 1999. September revised production, at 11.5 billion pounds was up 2.7 percent from September 1999. The September revision represented an decrease of 0.1 percent or 15 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,514 pounds for October, 23 pounds above October 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.85 million head, 105,000 head more than October 1999 and 2,000 head more than September 2000. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,636 40,505 42,593 5.2 Apr-Jun : 9,155 9,217 4,591 4,684 42,029 43,171 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,171 9,252 4,337 4,467 39,771 41,333 3.9 Oct-Dec : 9,170 4,406 40,406 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 3.3 May : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 Jun : 7,740 7,810 1,516 1,547 11,737 12,083 2.9 Jul : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,561 11,610 12,232 5.4 Aug : 7,755 7,840 1,487 1,526 11,534 11,966 3.7 Sep : 7,753 7,849 1,445 1,465 11,200 11,500 2.7 Oct : 7,746 7,851 1,491 1,514 11,549 11,888 2.9 Nov : 7,756 1,459 11,315 Dec : 7,757 1,538 11,928 : Annual : 7,735 18,103 140,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,183 1,494 1,552 13,628 14,252 4.6 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,596 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,604 14,270 14,745 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,204 1,524 1,562 13,938 14,380 3.2 May : 9,157 9,215 1,579 1,604 14,458 14,778 2.2 Jun : 9,166 9,231 1,487 1,518 13,633 14,013 2.8 Jul : 9,167 9,244 1,467 1,532 13,444 14,162 5.3 Aug : 9,174 9,250 1,456 1,498 13,357 13,854 3.7 Sep : 9,171 9,261 1,414 1,438 12,970 13,317 2.7 Oct : 9,162 9,263 1,464 1,490 13,412 13,806 2.9 Nov : 9,174 1,432 13,140 Dec : 9,175 1,510 13,854 : Annual : 9,156 17,771 162,711 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,725 1,615 233 226 -3.0 CA : 1,480 1,544 1,760 1,735 2,605 2,679 2.8 FL : 156 156 1,025 1,115 160 174 8.8 ID : 327 357 1,750 1,770 572 632 10.5 IL : 121 119 1,340 1,400 162 167 3.1 IN : 135 149 1,325 1,420 179 212 18.4 IA : 215 215 1,455 1,490 313 320 2.2 KY : 131 131 1,015 1,060 133 139 4.5 MI : 299 303 1,520 1,570 454 476 4.8 MN : 545 530 1,400 1,435 763 761 -0.3 MO : 158 152 1,130 1,180 179 179 NM : 235 261 1,685 1,710 396 446 12.6 NY : 700 690 1,400 1,420 980 980 OH : 259 264 1,400 1,450 363 383 5.5 PA : 617 618 1,450 1,470 895 908 1.5 TX : 346 345 1,255 1,295 434 447 3.0 VT : 159 158 1,390 1,425 221 225 1.8 VA : 121 119 1,315 1,275 159 152 -4.4 WA : 245 248 1,885 1,890 462 469 1.5 WI : 1,362 1,352 1,385 1,415 1,886 1,913 1.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,746 7,851 1,491 1,514 11,549 11,888 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,550 1,520 209 213 1.9 CA : 1,476 1,539 1,710 1,685 2,524 2,593 2.7 FL : 157 157 1,020 1,070 160 168 5.0 ID : 325 356 1,700 1,720 553 612 10.7 IL : 121 120 1,300 1,350 157 162 3.2 IN : 135 150 1,275 1,350 172 203 18.0 IA : 216 215 1,395 1,450 301 312 3.7 KY : 132 132 960 1,020 127 135 6.3 MI : 299 303 1,485 1,525 444 462 4.1 MN : 550 530 1,335 1,380 734 731 -0.4 MO : 157 153 1,030 1,080 162 165 1.9 NM : 235 258 1,605 1,645 377 424 12.5 NY : 702 690 1,380 1,400 969 966 -0.3 OH : 259 264 1,400 1,420 363 375 3.3 PA : 616 619 1,415 1,420 872 879 0.8 TX : 346 346 1,125 1,145 389 396 1.8 VT : 160 159 1,380 1,410 221 224 1.4 VA : 121 119 1,265 1,220 153 145 -5.2 WA : 247 247 1,855 1,845 458 456 -0.4 WI : 1,364 1,352 1,360 1,390 1,855 1,879 1.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,753 7,849 1,445 1,465 11,200 11,500 2.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.3 537 245 29 380 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.2 204 94 5 179 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. on December 15, 2000. 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