Da 1-1 (1-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 18, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Steve Anderson at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Unchanged Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 11.9 billion pounds, virtually unchanged from production in these same States in December 1999. November revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds was up 1.1 percent from November 1999. The November revision represented a decrease of 0.5 percent or 52 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,522 pounds for December, 16 pounds below December 1999. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.84 million head, 81,000 head more than December 1999, but 4,000 head less than November 2000. October-December Milk Production Up 1.2 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.9 billion pounds, 1.2 percent above the October-December period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the October-December quarter was 9.25 million head, 80,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,128 9,187 4,437 4,636 40,505 42,593 5.2 Apr-Jun : 9,155 9,217 4,591 4,684 42,029 43,171 2.7 Jul-Sep : 9,171 9,253 4,337 4,465 39,771 41,311 3.9 Oct-Dec : 9,170 9,250 4,406 4,419 40,406 40,877 1.2 : Annual : 9,156 9,227 17,771 18,202 162,711 167,952 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,694 7,765 1,518 1,578 11,679 12,256 4.9 Feb : 7,696 7,766 1,404 1,505 10,804 11,691 8.2 Mar : 7,713 7,774 1,585 1,631 12,228 12,679 3.7 Apr : 7,720 7,787 1,554 1,592 11,998 12,399 3.3 May : 7,733 7,795 1,610 1,635 12,447 12,743 2.4 Jun : 7,740 7,810 1,516 1,547 11,737 12,083 2.9 Jul : 7,751 7,834 1,498 1,561 11,610 12,232 5.4 Aug : 7,755 7,840 1,487 1,526 11,534 11,966 3.7 Sep : 7,753 7,849 1,445 1,465 11,200 11,500 2.7 Oct : 7,746 7,850 1,491 1,511 11,549 11,859 2.7 Nov : 7,756 7,842 1,459 1,458 11,315 11,434 1.1 Dec : 7,757 7,838 1,538 1,522 11,928 11,932 : Annual : 7,735 7,813 18,103 18,530 140,029 144,774 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,121 9,183 1,494 1,552 13,628 14,252 4.6 Feb : 9,123 9,185 1,382 1,480 12,607 13,596 7.8 Mar : 9,141 9,194 1,561 1,604 14,270 14,745 3.3 Apr : 9,143 9,204 1,524 1,562 13,938 14,380 3.2 May : 9,157 9,215 1,579 1,604 14,458 14,778 2.2 Jun : 9,166 9,231 1,487 1,518 13,633 14,013 2.8 Jul : 9,167 9,245 1,467 1,531 13,444 14,156 5.3 Aug : 9,174 9,251 1,456 1,497 13,357 13,847 3.7 Sep : 9,171 9,262 1,414 1,437 12,970 13,308 2.6 Oct : 9,162 9,258 1,464 1,486 13,412 13,762 2.6 Nov : 9,174 9,249 1,432 1,435 13,140 13,269 1.0 Dec : 9,175 9,244 1,510 1,498 13,854 13,846 -0.1 : Annual : 9,156 9,227 17,771 18,202 162,711 167,952 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,830 1,735 247 243 -1.6 CA : 1,488 1,554 1,775 1,745 2,641 2,712 2.7 FL : 156 156 1,320 1,325 206 207 0.5 ID : 331 354 1,730 1,720 573 609 6.3 IL : 121 118 1,430 1,460 173 172 -0.6 IN : 138 151 1,355 1,480 187 223 19.3 IA : 215 215 1,495 1,495 321 321 KY : 130 131 1,070 1,045 139 137 -1.4 MI : 297 301 1,550 1,565 460 471 2.4 MN : 540 525 1,495 1,495 807 785 -2.7 MO : 158 151 1,200 1,180 190 178 -6.3 NM : 236 261 1,720 1,670 406 436 7.4 NY : 700 690 1,440 1,400 1,008 966 -4.2 OH : 258 265 1,460 1,430 377 379 0.5 PA : 619 613 1,480 1,470 916 901 -1.6 TX : 350 345 1,390 1,305 487 450 -7.6 VT : 159 158 1,430 1,460 227 231 1.8 VA : 120 119 1,400 1,355 168 161 -4.2 WA : 246 246 1,885 1,790 464 440 -5.2 WI : 1,360 1,345 1,420 1,420 1,931 1,910 -1.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,757 7,838 1,538 1,522 11,928 11,932 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : From : : : : : : : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 135 140 1,755 1,550 237 217 -8.4 CA : 1,484 1,550 1,715 1,670 2,545 2,589 1.7 FL : 156 156 1,115 1,170 174 183 5.2 ID : 329 354 1,680 1,670 553 591 6.9 IL : 121 118 1,330 1,390 161 164 1.9 IN : 137 149 1,275 1,400 175 209 19.4 IA : 215 215 1,420 1,450 305 312 2.3 KY : 131 131 1,005 1,010 132 132 MI : 296 303 1,470 1,540 435 467 7.4 MN : 545 525 1,380 1,410 752 740 -1.6 MO : 158 151 1,130 1,170 179 177 -1.1 NM : 236 261 1,660 1,580 392 412 5.1 NY : 700 690 1,360 1,350 952 932 -2.1 OH : 259 264 1,370 1,420 355 375 5.6 PA : 618 616 1,420 1,425 878 878 TX : 348 345 1,290 1,225 449 423 -5.8 VT : 160 158 1,345 1,380 215 218 1.4 VA : 121 119 1,315 1,265 159 151 -5.0 WA : 245 248 1,805 1,760 442 436 -1.4 WI : 1,362 1,349 1,340 1,355 1,825 1,828 0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,756 7,842 1,459 1,458 11,315 11,434 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2000 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 24 78 70 -10.3 AK : 1.0 0.9 3.48 3.28 -5.7 AZ : 135 140 641 674 5.1 AR : 42 42 122 120 -1.6 CA : 1,472 1,533 7,645 8,063 5.5 CO : 83 89 434 487 12.2 CT : 28 26 126 114 -9.5 DE : 11.0 11.0 41.0 42.7 4.1 FL : 158 157 514 533 3.7 GA : 88 87 313 310 -1.0 HI : 8.6 8.0 30.3 30.4 0.3 ID : 324 355 1,696 1,893 11.6 IL : 121 120 472 502 6.4 IN : 136 151 529 636 20.2 IA : 216 215 912 968 6.1 KS : 86 91 325 360 10.8 KY : 132 132 386 405 4.9 LA : 61 57 145 143 -1.4 ME : 41 39 173 166 -4.0 MD : 85 83 332 325 -2.1 MA : 24 22 104 95 -8.7 MI : 303 301 1,385 1,430 3.2 MN : 548 532 2,270 2,270 MS : 37 36 114 112 -1.8 MO : 157 153 479 524 9.4 MT : 18 18 76 78 2.6 NE : 74 77 281 322 14.6 NV : 25 25 128 128 NH : 19 18 79 76 -3.8 NJ : 17 16 68 65 -4.4 NM : 235 255 1,158 1,301 12.3 NY : 702 690 3,012 3,001 -0.4 NC : 73 71 289 282 -2.4 ND : 48 51 168 188 11.9 OH : 259 263 1,116 1,146 2.7 OK : 92 91 294 319 8.5 OR : 89 90 423 428 1.2 PA : 615 619 2,670 2,727 2.1 RI : 2.0 1.7 7.7 6.8 -11.7 SC : 23 22 79 81 2.5 SD : 102 102 375 413 10.1 TN : 95 94 320 320 TX : 346 347 1,192 1,234 3.5 UT : 93 97 412 445 8.0 VT : 160 160 679 693 2.1 VA : 121 120 450 447 -0.7 WA : 248 247 1,414 1,420 0.4 WV : 18 17 66 64 -3.0 WI : 1,366 1,351 5,724 5,831 1.9 WY : 6.0 5.5 21.0 19.3 -8.1 : US 3/ : 9,171 9,253 39,771 41,311 3.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 23 90 78 -13.3 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.03 3.41 12.5 AZ : 135 140 717 686 -4.3 AR : 42 41 125 118 -5.6 CA : 1,484 1,549 7,791 7,980 2.4 CO : 83 90 441 476 7.9 CT : 28 26 124 115 -7.3 DE : 11.0 10.5 42.5 43.5 2.4 FL : 156 156 540 565 4.6 GA : 88 86 344 340 -1.2 HI : 8.6 7.5 26.3 26.2 -0.4 ID : 329 355 1,698 1,827 7.6 IL : 121 118 496 503 1.4 IN : 137 150 541 644 19.0 IA : 215 215 939 953 1.5 KS : 87 94 360 395 9.7 KY : 131 131 404 406 0.5 LA : 61 57 165 163 -1.2 ME : 41 39 167 163 -2.4 MD : 85 82 345 328 -4.9 MA : 24 22 102 93 -8.8 MI : 297 302 1,349 1,414 4.8 MN : 543 527 2,322 2,286 -1.6 MS : 36 36 129 128 -0.8 MO : 158 151 548 534 -2.6 MT : 18 19 76 79 3.9 NE : 75 79 296 327 10.5 NV : 25 25 123 125 1.6 NH : 19 18 78 76 -2.6 NJ : 16 16 64 63 -1.6 NM : 236 261 1,194 1,289 8.0 NY : 700 690 2,940 2,871 -2.3 NC : 73 69 299 288 -3.7 ND : 49 49 167 172 3.0 OH : 259 264 1,095 1,137 3.8 OK : 92 91 313 314 0.3 OR : 89 90 414 401 -3.1 PA : 618 616 2,689 2,687 -0.1 RI : 1.9 1.6 7.2 6.4 -11.1 SC : 23 22 89 88 -1.1 SD : 102 101 385 409 6.2 TN : 95 94 345 340 -1.4 TX : 348 345 1,370 1,313 -4.2 UT : 93 95 405 412 1.7 VT : 159 158 663 677 2.1 VA : 121 119 486 465 -4.3 WA : 245 247 1,368 1,337 -2.3 WV : 18 17 69 64 -7.2 WI : 1,361 1,349 5,642 5,651 0.2 WY : 6.0 5.2 19.8 17.2 -13.1 : US 3/ : 9,170 9,250 40,406 40,877 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.25 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 368 152 1 385 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.2 204 93 2 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. on February 16, 2001. 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