Da 1-1 (3-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Down 4.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 11.2 billion pounds, down 4.3 percent from February 2000. Most of the decline is due to an extra day of production in February 2000, because of leap year. Adjusting production for the additional day would put February 2001 milk production down 0.9 percent from last year. January revised production, at 12.1 billion pounds, was down 1.6 percent from January 2000. The January revision represented a decrease of 0.1 percent or 11 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,440 pounds for February, 66 pounds below February 2000. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 7,000 head more than February 2000, but 10,000 head less than January 2001. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 4,640 42,630 Apr-Jun : 9,213 4,688 43,189 Jul-Sep : 9,229 4,460 41,161 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,773 1,506 1,440 11,694 11,194 -4.3 Mar : 7,776 1,632 12,687 Apr : 7,789 1,593 12,411 May : 7,799 1,636 12,758 Jun : 7,808 1,547 12,082 Jul : 7,821 1,561 12,205 Aug : 7,820 1,525 11,928 Sep : 7,820 1,464 11,451 Oct : 7,817 1,511 11,813 Nov : 7,805 1,459 11,385 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,180 1,553 1,525 14,263 13,998 -1.9 Feb : 9,183 9,168 1,482 1,417 13,606 12,991 -4.5 Mar : 9,197 1,605 14,761 Apr : 9,202 1,564 14,390 May : 9,214 1,605 14,791 Jun : 9,224 1,519 14,008 Jul : 9,229 1,530 14,117 Aug : 9,228 1,495 13,798 Sep : 9,229 1,435 13,246 Oct : 9,222 1,486 13,708 Nov : 9,208 1,435 13,212 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 137 140 1,935 1,655 265 232 -12.5 CA : 1,496 1,567 1,710 1,630 2,558 2,554 -0.2 FL : 157 155 1,410 1,360 221 211 -4.5 ID : 332 356 1,610 1,580 535 562 5.0 IL : 120 117 1,480 1,380 178 161 -9.6 IN : 141 150 1,330 1,305 188 196 4.3 IA : 215 215 1,500 1,410 323 303 -6.2 KY : 130 130 1,090 1,025 142 133 -6.3 MI : 296 302 1,510 1,460 447 441 -1.3 MN : 540 520 1,465 1,390 791 723 -8.6 MO : 157 148 1,220 1,070 192 158 -17.7 NM : 238 261 1,730 1,550 412 405 -1.7 NY : 700 670 1,370 1,380 959 925 -3.5 OH : 259 263 1,410 1,320 365 347 -4.9 PA : 617 602 1,475 1,420 910 855 -6.0 TX : 350 343 1,480 1,265 518 434 -16.2 VT : 160 154 1,405 1,335 225 206 -8.4 VA : 120 118 1,335 1,265 160 149 -6.9 WA : 246 247 1,795 1,690 442 417 -5.7 WI : 1,355 1,315 1,375 1,355 1,863 1,782 -4.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,766 7,773 1,506 1,440 11,694 11,194 -4.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 137 140 1,925 1,795 264 251 -4.9 CA : 1,492 1,562 1,815 1,760 2,708 2,749 1.5 FL : 156 155 1,450 1,415 226 219 -3.1 ID : 332 356 1,730 1,740 574 619 7.8 IL : 120 118 1,500 1,470 180 173 -3.9 IN : 139 151 1,400 1,395 195 211 8.2 IA : 215 215 1,555 1,525 334 328 -1.8 KY : 130 130 1,155 1,090 150 142 -5.3 MI : 298 301 1,590 1,585 474 477 0.6 MN : 540 520 1,545 1,525 834 793 -4.9 MO : 158 149 1,240 1,150 196 171 -12.8 NM : 237 261 1,780 1,680 422 438 3.8 NY : 700 670 1,450 1,460 1,015 978 -3.6 OH : 259 264 1,470 1,400 381 370 -2.9 PA : 617 607 1,520 1,520 938 923 -1.6 TX : 350 343 1,515 1,360 530 466 -12.1 VT : 160 154 1,485 1,460 238 225 -5.5 VA : 120 118 1,425 1,380 171 163 -4.7 WA : 246 247 1,900 1,845 467 456 -2.4 WI : 1,358 1,322 1,445 1,445 1,962 1,910 -2.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 1.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.21 million head by more than 1.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.2 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 366 151 1 385 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.2 2.2 203 93 2 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 17, 2001. 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