Da 1-1 (4-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 17, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Down 2.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.4 billion pounds, down 2.2 percent from March 2000. February revised production, at 11.1 billion pounds, was down 5.0 percent from February 2000. However, adjusting production for leap year would put February milk production down 1.6 percent. The February revision represented a decrease of 0.7 percent or 82 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,599 pounds for March, 33 pounds below March 2000. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 18,000 head less than March 2000, and 9,000 head less than February 2001. January-March Milk Production Down 3.1 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 41.3 billion pounds, 3.1 percent below the January-March period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was 9.16 million head, 33,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 9,155 4,640 4,514 42,630 41,326 -3.1 Apr-Jun : 9,213 4,688 43,189 Jul-Sep : 9,229 4,460 41,161 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 Mar : 7,776 7,758 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,403 -2.2 Apr : 7,789 1,593 12,411 May : 7,799 1,636 12,758 Jun : 7,808 1,547 12,082 Jul : 7,821 1,561 12,205 Aug : 7,820 1,525 11,928 Sep : 7,820 1,464 11,451 Oct : 7,817 1,511 11,813 Nov : 7,805 1,459 11,385 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,171 1,553 1,528 14,263 14,011 -1.8 Feb : 9,183 9,153 1,482 1,410 13,606 12,907 -5.1 Mar : 9,197 9,142 1,605 1,576 14,761 14,408 -2.4 Apr : 9,202 1,564 14,390 May : 9,214 1,605 14,791 Jun : 9,224 1,519 14,008 Jul : 9,229 1,530 14,117 Aug : 9,228 1,495 13,798 Sep : 9,229 1,435 13,246 Oct : 9,222 1,486 13,708 Nov : 9,208 1,435 13,212 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 137 140 2,115 1,880 290 263 -9.3 CA : 1,501 1,570 1,825 1,785 2,739 2,802 2.3 FL : 157 154 1,530 1,530 240 236 -1.7 ID : 334 357 1,720 1,770 574 632 10.1 IL : 120 117 1,580 1,580 190 185 -2.6 IN : 143 151 1,435 1,470 205 222 8.3 IA : 215 213 1,610 1,570 346 334 -3.5 KY : 132 127 1,205 1,190 159 151 -5.0 MI : 296 303 1,640 1,620 485 491 1.2 MN : 540 520 1,585 1,560 856 811 -5.3 MO : 156 148 1,350 1,270 211 188 -10.9 NM : 240 261 1,890 1,760 454 459 1.1 NY : 698 670 1,495 1,480 1,044 992 -5.0 OH : 261 262 1,530 1,450 399 380 -4.8 PA : 618 600 1,620 1,580 1,001 948 -5.3 TX : 350 343 1,655 1,425 579 489 -15.5 VT : 160 153 1,515 1,495 242 229 -5.4 VA : 120 118 1,450 1,415 174 167 -4.0 WA : 246 246 1,945 1,895 478 466 -2.5 WI : 1,352 1,305 1,495 1,500 2,021 1,958 -3.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,776 7,758 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,403 -2.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 137 140 1,935 1,655 265 232 -12.5 CA : 1,496 1,567 1,710 1,615 2,558 2,531 -1.1 FL : 157 155 1,410 1,360 221 211 -4.5 ID : 332 357 1,610 1,580 535 564 5.4 IL : 120 117 1,480 1,380 178 161 -9.6 IN : 141 151 1,330 1,305 188 197 4.8 IA : 215 215 1,500 1,410 323 303 -6.2 KY : 130 128 1,090 1,040 142 133 -6.3 MI : 296 302 1,510 1,460 447 441 -1.3 MN : 540 520 1,465 1,390 791 723 -8.6 MO : 157 148 1,220 1,070 192 158 -17.7 NM : 238 261 1,730 1,550 412 405 -1.7 NY : 700 670 1,370 1,310 959 878 -8.4 OH : 259 263 1,410 1,320 365 347 -4.9 PA : 617 602 1,475 1,420 910 855 -6.0 TX : 350 343 1,480 1,265 518 434 -16.2 VT : 160 153 1,405 1,335 225 204 -9.3 VA : 120 118 1,335 1,280 160 151 -5.6 WA : 246 247 1,795 1,680 442 415 -6.1 WI : 1,355 1,310 1,375 1,350 1,863 1,769 -5.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 1999-2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 27 23 92 78 -15.2 AK : 0.9 1.0 3.03 3.41 12.5 AZ : 135 140 717 687 -4.2 AR : 42 41 125 124 -0.8 CA : 1,484 1,550 7,789 7,970 2.3 CO : 84 90 441 483 9.5 CT : 28 26 124 114 -8.1 DE : 11.0 9.0 42.5 33.1 -22.1 FL : 156 156 540 569 5.4 GA : 88 86 344 337 -2.0 HI : 8.6 7.6 26.5 25.9 -2.3 ID : 329 355 1,698 1,830 7.8 IL : 121 118 496 503 1.4 IN : 137 149 541 601 11.1 IA : 215 215 939 953 1.5 KS : 88 94 370 395 6.8 KY : 131 131 410 405 -1.2 LA : 61 57 165 163 -1.2 ME : 40 39 165 160 -3.0 MD : 85 82 345 324 -6.1 MA : 24 22 102 92 -9.8 MI : 298 300 1,355 1,410 4.1 MN : 543 527 2,322 2,279 -1.9 MS : 36 36 129 126 -2.3 MO : 158 151 555 534 -3.8 MT : 18 19 76 79 3.9 NE : 75 79 296 316 6.8 NV : 25 25 113 120 6.2 NH : 19 18 78 74 -5.1 NJ : 16 16 64 63 -1.6 NM : 236 261 1,194 1,289 8.0 NY : 700 672 2,965 2,834 -4.4 NC : 73 69 299 288 -3.7 ND : 49 48 167 168 0.6 OH : 259 264 1,092 1,080 -1.1 OK : 92 91 313 314 0.3 OR : 89 90 414 415 0.2 PA : 618 616 2,689 2,687 -0.1 RI : 1.9 1.6 7.2 6.2 -13.9 SC : 23 22 89 88 -1.1 SD : 102 101 385 409 6.2 TN : 95 94 345 340 -1.4 TX : 347 345 1,368 1,313 -4.0 UT : 93 95 408 405 -0.7 VT : 159 158 663 673 1.5 VA : 121 119 480 462 -3.8 WA : 245 247 1,368 1,347 -1.5 WV : 18 17 69 64 -7.2 WI : 1,361 1,333 5,642 5,627 -0.3 WY : 6.0 5.0 19.8 17.0 -14.1 : US 3/ : 9,171 9,211 40,440 40,678 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 26 22 104 86 -17.3 AK : 0.9 1.1 2.95 3.41 15.6 AZ : 137 140 819 746 -8.9 AR : 42 39 141 125 -11.3 CA : 1,496 1,566 8,005 8,082 1.0 CO : 87 90 466 480 3.0 CT : 27 26 129 121 -6.2 DE : 11.0 9.0 47.0 36.5 -22.3 FL : 157 155 687 666 -3.1 GA : 88 86 402 387 -3.7 HI : 8.4 7.7 28.4 26.7 -6.0 ID : 333 357 1,683 1,815 7.8 IL : 120 117 548 519 -5.3 IN : 141 151 588 630 7.1 IA : 215 214 1,003 965 -3.8 KS : 88 94 385 395 2.6 KY : 131 128 451 426 -5.5 LA : 60 56 210 184 -12.4 ME : 40 37 171 158 -7.6 MD : 85 82 357 347 -2.8 MA : 24 21 103 91 -11.7 MI : 297 302 1,406 1,409 0.2 MN : 540 520 2,481 2,327 -6.2 MS : 36 36 162 148 -8.6 MO : 157 148 599 517 -13.7 MT : 18 19 77 84 9.1 NE : 75 77 309 295 -4.5 NV : 25 25 115 119 3.5 NH : 19 18 81 80 -1.2 NJ : 16 16 69 68 -1.4 NM : 238 261 1,288 1,302 1.1 NY : 699 670 3,018 2,848 -5.6 NC : 72 68 316 299 -5.4 ND : 49 47 173 165 -4.6 OH : 260 263 1,145 1,097 -4.2 OK : 92 90 331 326 -1.5 OR : 90 90 422 396 -6.2 PA : 617 603 2,849 2,726 -4.3 RI : 1.9 1.5 7.7 6.1 -20.8 SC : 23 22 102 99 -2.9 SD : 102 100 399 405 1.5 TN : 96 93 380 350 -7.9 TX : 350 343 1,627 1,389 -14.6 UT : 94 93 410 392 -4.4 VT : 160 153 705 658 -6.7 VA : 120 118 505 481 -4.8 WA : 246 247 1,387 1,337 -3.6 WV : 17 16 70 61 -12.9 WI : 1,355 1,312 5,846 5,637 -3.6 WY : 6.0 4.6 19.8 15.2 -23.2 : US 3/ : 9,188 9,155 42,630 41,326 -3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.8 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 372 154 18 321 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.0 1.8 165 70 2 187 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 16, 2001. 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