Da 1-1 (5-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 16, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. April Milk Production Down 1.9 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 12.2 billion pounds, down 1.9 percent from April 2000. March revised production, at 12.4 billion pounds, was down 2.3 percent from March 2000. The March revision represented a decrease of 2 million pounds, virtually unchanged from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,572 pounds for April, 21 pounds below April 2000. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 45,000 head less than April 2000, and 12,000 head less than March 2001. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 9,155 4,640 4,514 42,630 41,324 -3.1 Apr-Jun : 9,213 4,688 43,189 Jul-Sep : 9,229 4,460 41,161 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 Mar : 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 -2.3 Apr : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,572 12,411 12,172 -1.9 May : 7,799 1,636 12,758 Jun : 7,808 1,547 12,082 Jul : 7,821 1,561 12,205 Aug : 7,820 1,525 11,928 Sep : 7,820 1,464 11,451 Oct : 7,817 1,511 11,813 Nov : 7,805 1,459 11,385 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,171 1,553 1,528 14,263 14,011 -1.8 Feb : 9,183 9,153 1,482 1,410 13,606 12,907 -5.1 Mar : 9,197 9,141 1,605 1,576 14,761 14,406 -2.4 Apr : 9,202 9,127 1,564 1,549 14,390 14,140 -1.7 May : 9,214 1,605 14,791 Jun : 9,224 1,519 14,008 Jul : 9,229 1,530 14,117 Aug : 9,228 1,495 13,798 Sep : 9,229 1,435 13,246 Oct : 9,222 1,486 13,708 Nov : 9,208 1,435 13,212 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 138 140 2,080 1,855 287 260 -9.4 CA : 1,506 1,574 1,815 1,765 2,733 2,778 1.6 FL : 158 154 1,470 1,500 232 231 -0.4 ID : 339 360 1,710 1,750 580 630 8.6 IL : 120 117 1,520 1,555 182 182 IN : 145 152 1,370 1,450 199 220 10.6 IA : 215 212 1,560 1,545 335 328 -2.1 KY : 133 128 1,165 1,170 155 150 -3.2 MI : 299 303 1,610 1,595 481 483 0.4 MN : 540 515 1,530 1,520 826 783 -5.2 MO : 157 148 1,330 1,265 209 187 -10.5 NM : 241 261 1,835 1,760 442 459 3.8 NY : 695 670 1,460 1,450 1,015 972 -4.2 OH : 262 261 1,430 1,440 375 376 0.3 PA : 615 599 1,590 1,540 978 922 -5.7 TX : 350 339 1,550 1,405 543 476 -12.3 VT : 160 152 1,475 1,455 236 221 -6.4 VA : 120 118 1,410 1,400 169 165 -2.4 WA : 247 246 1,935 1,860 478 458 -4.2 WI : 1,349 1,295 1,450 1,460 1,956 1,891 -3.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,572 12,411 12,172 -1.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 137 140 2,115 1,855 290 260 -10.3 CA : 1,501 1,570 1,825 1,790 2,739 2,810 2.6 FL : 157 154 1,530 1,530 240 236 -1.7 ID : 334 358 1,720 1,770 574 634 10.5 IL : 120 117 1,580 1,580 190 185 -2.6 IN : 143 151 1,435 1,470 205 222 8.3 IA : 215 213 1,610 1,570 346 334 -3.5 KY : 132 127 1,205 1,180 159 150 -5.7 MI : 296 303 1,640 1,620 485 491 1.2 MN : 540 520 1,585 1,550 856 806 -5.8 MO : 156 148 1,350 1,270 211 188 -10.9 NM : 240 261 1,890 1,760 454 459 1.1 NY : 698 670 1,495 1,480 1,044 992 -5.0 OH : 261 262 1,530 1,450 399 380 -4.8 PA : 618 600 1,620 1,580 1,001 948 -5.3 TX : 350 341 1,655 1,435 579 489 -15.5 VT : 160 152 1,515 1,495 242 227 -6.2 VA : 120 118 1,450 1,425 174 168 -3.4 WA : 246 246 1,945 1,885 478 464 -2.9 WI : 1,352 1,305 1,495 1,500 2,021 1,958 -3.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 -2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.8 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 372 154 18 321 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.0 1.8 165 70 2 187 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 15, 2001. 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