Da 1-1 (6-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 15, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Down 1.1 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 12.6 billion pounds, down 1.1 percent from May 2000. April revised production, at 12.2 billion pounds, was down 2.0 percent from April 2000. The April revision represented a decrease of 0.1 percent or 14 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,629 pounds for May, 7 pounds below May 2000. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 55,000 head less than May 2000, but unchanged from April 2001. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 9,154 4,640 4,514 42,630 41,324 -3.1 Apr-Jun : 9,213 4,688 43,189 Jul-Sep : 9,229 4,460 41,161 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 Mar : 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 -2.3 Apr : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 -2.0 May : 7,799 7,744 1,636 1,629 12,758 12,614 -1.1 Jun : 7,808 1,547 12,082 Jul : 7,821 1,561 12,205 Aug : 7,820 1,525 11,928 Sep : 7,820 1,464 11,451 Oct : 7,817 1,511 11,813 Nov : 7,805 1,459 11,385 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,171 1,553 1,528 14,263 14,011 -1.8 Feb : 9,183 9,153 1,482 1,410 13,606 12,907 -5.1 Mar : 9,197 9,141 1,605 1,576 14,761 14,406 -2.4 Apr : 9,202 9,127 1,564 1,544 14,390 14,096 -2.0 May : 9,214 9,127 1,605 1,602 14,791 14,625 -1.1 Jun : 9,224 1,519 14,008 Jul : 9,229 1,530 14,117 Aug : 9,228 1,495 13,798 Sep : 9,229 1,435 13,246 Oct : 9,222 1,486 13,708 Nov : 9,208 1,435 13,212 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 138 140 2,095 1,850 289 259 -10.4 CA : 1,513 1,580 1,850 1,830 2,799 2,891 3.3 FL : 158 154 1,460 1,480 231 228 -1.3 ID : 344 360 1,800 1,820 619 655 5.8 IL : 120 116 1,550 1,610 186 187 0.5 IN : 144 153 1,400 1,550 202 237 17.3 IA : 215 211 1,610 1,610 346 340 -1.7 KY : 133 128 1,120 1,150 149 147 -1.3 MI : 301 304 1,640 1,675 494 509 3.0 MN : 540 515 1,555 1,530 840 788 -6.2 MO : 156 148 1,320 1,255 206 186 -9.7 NM : 246 261 1,910 1,870 470 488 3.8 NY : 690 673 1,530 1,530 1,056 1,030 -2.5 OH : 262 261 1,510 1,520 396 397 0.3 PA : 615 599 1,615 1,600 993 958 -3.5 TX : 350 335 1,540 1,420 539 476 -11.7 VT : 160 152 1,530 1,520 245 231 -5.7 VA : 120 118 1,400 1,400 168 165 -1.8 WA : 247 246 1,980 1,955 489 481 -1.6 WI : 1,347 1,290 1,515 1,520 2,041 1,961 -3.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,799 7,744 1,636 1,629 12,758 12,614 -1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 138 140 2,080 1,855 287 260 -9.4 CA : 1,506 1,574 1,815 1,770 2,733 2,786 1.9 FL : 158 154 1,470 1,460 232 225 -3.0 ID : 339 360 1,710 1,740 580 626 7.9 IL : 120 117 1,520 1,555 182 182 IN : 145 152 1,370 1,450 199 220 10.6 IA : 215 212 1,560 1,545 335 328 -2.1 KY : 133 128 1,165 1,180 155 151 -2.6 MI : 299 303 1,610 1,595 481 483 0.4 MN : 540 515 1,530 1,510 826 778 -5.8 MO : 157 148 1,330 1,265 209 187 -10.5 NM : 241 261 1,835 1,760 442 459 3.8 NY : 695 670 1,460 1,440 1,015 965 -4.9 OH : 262 261 1,430 1,440 375 376 0.3 PA : 615 599 1,590 1,540 978 922 -5.7 TX : 350 339 1,550 1,405 543 476 -12.3 VT : 160 152 1,475 1,460 236 222 -5.9 VA : 120 118 1,410 1,380 169 163 -3.6 WA : 247 246 1,935 1,860 478 458 -4.2 WI : 1,349 1,295 1,450 1,460 1,956 1,891 -3.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 -2.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 1.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 1.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.8 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 372 154 18 321 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.0 1.8 165 70 2 187 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 17, 2001. 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