Da 1-1 (9-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 17, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Down 0.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 11.8 billion pounds, down 0.8 percent from August 2000. July revised production, at 12.0 billion pounds, was down 1.5 percent from July 2000. The July revision represented a decrease of 0.3 percent or 33 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,529 pounds for August, 4 pounds above August 2000. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 82,000 head less than August 2000, and 7,000 head less than July 2001. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 9,157 4,640 4,511 42,630 41,306 -3.1 Apr-Jun : 9,213 9,126 4,688 4,675 43,189 42,661 -1.2 Jul-Sep : 9,229 4,460 41,161 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 Mar : 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 -2.3 Apr : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 -2.0 May : 7,799 7,745 1,636 1,632 12,758 12,638 -0.9 Jun : 7,808 7,749 1,547 1,556 12,082 12,057 -0.2 Jul : 7,821 7,745 1,561 1,552 12,205 12,020 -1.5 Aug : 7,820 7,738 1,525 1,529 11,928 11,828 -0.8 Sep : 7,820 1,464 11,451 Oct : 7,817 1,511 11,813 Nov : 7,805 1,459 11,385 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,174 1,553 1,527 14,263 14,005 -1.8 Feb : 9,183 9,155 1,482 1,409 13,606 12,902 -5.2 Mar : 9,197 9,141 1,605 1,575 14,761 14,399 -2.5 Apr : 9,202 9,123 1,564 1,543 14,390 14,076 -2.2 May : 9,214 9,124 1,605 1,604 14,791 14,631 -1.1 Jun : 9,224 9,130 1,519 1,528 14,008 13,954 -0.4 Jul : 9,229 9,125 1,530 1,524 14,117 13,904 -1.5 Aug : 9,228 9,116 1,495 1,501 13,798 13,682 -0.8 Sep : 9,229 1,435 13,246 Oct : 9,222 1,486 13,708 Nov : 9,208 1,435 13,212 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,555 1,520 218 213 -2.3 CA : 1,533 1,595 1,750 1,765 2,683 2,815 4.9 FL : 156 153 1,120 1,150 175 176 0.6 ID : 355 372 1,790 1,830 635 681 7.2 IL : 120 115 1,400 1,370 168 158 -6.0 IN : 147 154 1,327 1,340 195 206 5.6 IA : 215 207 1,510 1,475 325 305 -6.2 KY : 132 128 1,015 1,045 134 134 MI : 302 302 1,605 1,590 485 480 -1.0 MN : 530 510 1,435 1,400 761 714 -6.2 MO : 153 144 1,130 1,025 173 148 -14.5 NM : 255 268 1,730 1,770 441 474 7.5 NY : 682 673 1,480 1,510 1,009 1,016 0.7 OH : 263 258 1,390 1,400 366 361 -1.4 PA : 619 598 1,485 1,480 919 885 -3.7 TX : 348 322 1,185 1,140 412 367 -10.9 VT : 160 152 1,455 1,480 233 225 -3.4 VA : 120 118 1,250 1,270 150 150 WA : 247 247 1,940 1,945 479 480 0.2 WI : 1,343 1,282 1,465 1,435 1,967 1,840 -6.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,820 7,738 1,525 1,529 11,928 11,828 -0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,735 1,740 243 244 0.4 CA : 1,525 1,590 1,825 1,770 2,783 2,814 1.1 FL : 157 154 1,210 1,225 190 189 -0.5 ID : 355 370 1,820 1,840 646 681 5.4 IL : 120 115 1,430 1,405 172 162 -5.8 IN : 145 154 1,364 1,405 198 216 9.1 IA : 215 209 1,540 1,475 331 308 -6.9 KY : 133 129 1,015 1,045 135 135 MI : 302 303 1,620 1,615 489 489 MN : 535 510 1,455 1,425 778 727 -6.6 MO : 154 146 1,210 1,055 186 154 -17.2 NM : 252 265 1,730 1,790 436 474 8.7 NY : 685 673 1,490 1,520 1,021 1,023 0.2 OH : 263 258 1,420 1,420 373 366 -1.9 PA : 619 600 1,500 1,510 929 906 -2.5 TX : 349 324 1,235 1,205 431 390 -9.5 VT : 160 152 1,475 1,510 236 230 -2.5 VA : 120 118 1,265 1,305 152 154 1.3 WA : 247 247 1,965 1,960 485 484 -0.2 WI : 1,345 1,288 1,480 1,455 1,991 1,874 -5.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,821 7,745 1,561 1,552 12,205 12,020 -1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.13 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.9 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 299 127 3 264 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 1.9 173 73 0 188 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 16, 2001. 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