Da 1-1 (10-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 16, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Down 0.7 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 11.4 billion pounds, down 0.7 percent from September 2000. August revised production, at 11.8 billion pounds, was down 1.3 percent from August 2000. The August revision represented a decrease of 0.5 percent or 56 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,471 pounds for September, 7 pounds above September 2000. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 91,000 head less than September 2000, and 8,000 head less than August 2001. July-September Milk Production Down 1.3 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 40.6 billion pounds, 1.3 percent below the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the July-September quarter was 9.10 million head, 128,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 9,157 4,640 4,511 42,630 41,306 -3.1 Apr-Jun : 9,213 9,125 4,688 4,676 43,189 42,669 -1.2 Jul-Sep : 9,229 9,101 4,460 4,463 41,161 40,619 -1.3 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 Mar : 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 -2.3 Apr : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 -2.0 May : 7,799 7,745 1,636 1,632 12,758 12,638 -0.9 Jun : 7,808 7,749 1,547 1,556 12,082 12,057 -0.2 Jul : 7,821 7,745 1,561 1,552 12,205 12,020 -1.5 Aug : 7,820 7,737 1,525 1,522 11,928 11,772 -1.3 Sep : 7,820 7,729 1,464 1,471 11,451 11,372 -0.7 Oct : 7,817 1,511 11,813 Nov : 7,805 1,459 11,385 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,174 1,553 1,527 14,263 14,005 -1.8 Feb : 9,183 9,155 1,482 1,409 13,606 12,902 -5.2 Mar : 9,197 9,141 1,605 1,575 14,761 14,399 -2.5 Apr : 9,202 9,123 1,564 1,543 14,390 14,077 -2.2 May : 9,214 9,124 1,605 1,604 14,791 14,632 -1.1 Jun : 9,224 9,128 1,519 1,529 14,008 13,960 -0.3 Jul : 9,229 9,118 1,530 1,523 14,117 13,885 -1.6 Aug : 9,228 9,101 1,495 1,494 13,798 13,598 -1.4 Sep : 9,229 9,085 1,435 1,446 13,246 13,136 -0.8 Oct : 9,222 1,486 13,708 Nov : 9,208 1,435 13,212 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,520 1,545 213 216 1.4 CA : 1,540 1,601 1,685 1,700 2,595 2,722 4.9 FL : 157 152 1,070 1,105 168 168 ID : 356 372 1,720 1,770 612 658 7.5 IL : 120 115 1,350 1,345 162 155 -4.3 IN : 148 154 1,275 1,320 189 203 7.4 IA : 215 206 1,450 1,430 312 295 -5.4 KY : 132 127 980 985 129 125 -3.1 MI : 300 301 1,515 1,520 455 458 0.7 MN : 530 510 1,380 1,360 731 694 -5.1 MO : 153 142 1,080 1,020 165 145 -12.1 NM : 258 270 1,645 1,700 424 459 8.3 NY : 678 670 1,410 1,410 956 945 -1.2 OH : 264 257 1,360 1,370 359 352 -1.9 PA : 619 596 1,420 1,450 879 864 -1.7 TX : 346 319 1,145 1,115 396 356 -10.1 VT : 159 152 1,410 1,435 224 218 -2.7 VA : 119 118 1,220 1,220 145 144 -0.7 WA : 247 247 1,845 1,840 456 454 -0.4 WI : 1,339 1,280 1,405 1,360 1,881 1,741 -7.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,820 7,729 1,464 1,471 11,451 11,372 -0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,555 1,520 218 213 -2.3 CA : 1,533 1,595 1,750 1,765 2,683 2,815 4.9 FL : 156 153 1,120 1,150 175 176 0.6 ID : 355 372 1,790 1,830 635 681 7.2 IL : 120 115 1,400 1,370 168 158 -6.0 IN : 147 154 1,327 1,340 195 206 5.6 IA : 215 207 1,510 1,475 325 305 -6.2 KY : 132 128 1,015 1,000 134 128 -4.5 MI : 302 302 1,605 1,590 485 480 -1.0 MN : 530 510 1,435 1,400 761 714 -6.2 MO : 153 144 1,130 1,025 173 148 -14.5 NM : 255 268 1,730 1,770 441 474 7.5 NY : 682 672 1,480 1,480 1,009 995 -1.4 OH : 263 258 1,390 1,400 366 361 -1.4 PA : 619 598 1,485 1,480 919 885 -3.7 TX : 348 322 1,185 1,140 412 367 -10.9 VT : 160 152 1,455 1,470 233 223 -4.3 VA : 120 118 1,250 1,260 150 149 -0.7 WA : 247 247 1,940 1,945 479 480 0.2 WI : 1,343 1,282 1,465 1,415 1,967 1,814 -7.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,820 7,737 1,525 1,522 11,928 11,772 -1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 25 21 94 80 -14.9 AK : 0.9 1.1 3.41 3.62 6.2 AZ : 138 140 837 760 -9.2 AR : 42 40 141 126 -10.6 CA : 1,512 1,580 8,204 8,452 3.0 CO : 89 91 488 497 1.8 CT : 26 25 122 119 -2.5 DE : 10.5 9.0 37.0 37.4 1.1 FL : 158 154 672 654 -2.7 GA : 88 86 384 386 0.5 HI : 8.4 7.5 32.2 29.1 -9.6 ID : 345 365 1,817 1,950 7.3 IL : 120 116 541 539 -0.4 IN : 144 153 594 683 15.0 IA : 215 211 1,010 982 -2.8 KS : 89 91 370 390 5.4 KY : 133 129 436 446 2.3 LA : 58 56 188 168 -10.6 ME : 40 38 172 167 -2.9 MD : 84 82 347 327 -5.8 MA : 23 21 102 94 -7.8 MI : 301 304 1,460 1,478 1.2 MN : 538 513 2,463 2,324 -5.6 MS : 36 36 144 139 -3.5 MO : 156 148 601 542 -9.8 MT : 18 19 80 87 8.8 NE : 75 74 315 298 -5.4 NV : 25 25 118 124 5.1 NH : 18 18 80 83 3.8 NJ : 16 15 69 64 -7.2 NM : 245 262 1,358 1,418 4.4 NY : 691 672 3,082 3,004 -2.5 NC : 72 68 303 299 -1.3 ND : 49 46 183 172 -6.0 OH : 262 261 1,138 1,142 0.4 OK : 91 90 331 336 1.5 OR : 90 90 430 424 -1.4 PA : 616 599 2,893 2,792 -3.5 RI : 1.8 1.5 7.5 6.2 -17.3 SC : 23 21 98 98 SD : 103 99 413 414 0.2 TN : 95 93 365 355 -2.7 TX : 350 332 1,556 1,379 -11.4 UT : 96 93 434 413 -4.8 VT : 160 152 716 683 -4.6 VA : 120 118 487 483 -0.8 WA : 247 246 1,439 1,407 -2.2 WV : 17 16 67 64 -4.5 WI : 1,347 1,292 5,947 5,735 -3.6 WY : 5.8 4.4 20.3 15.4 -24.1 : US 3/ : 9,213 9,125 43,189 42,669 -1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 24 21 72 64 -11.1 AK : 0.9 1.1 3.28 3.61 10.1 AZ : 140 140 674 673 -0.1 AR : 42 40 118 108 -8.5 CA : 1,533 1,595 8,061 8,351 3.6 CO : 89 93 487 513 5.3 CT : 26 24 113 109 -3.5 DE : 9.5 9.0 32.0 36.5 14.1 FL : 157 153 533 533 GA : 87 85 310 317 2.3 HI : 8.0 7.4 29.8 27.1 -9.1 ID : 355 371 1,893 2,020 6.7 IL : 120 115 502 475 -5.4 IN : 147 154 582 625 7.4 IA : 215 207 968 908 -6.2 KS : 91 90 370 365 -1.4 KY : 132 128 398 388 -2.5 LA : 57 55 144 131 -9.0 ME : 39 38 166 167 0.6 MD : 83 82 323 317 -1.9 MA : 22 21 95 90 -5.3 MI : 301 302 1,429 1,427 -0.1 MN : 532 510 2,270 2,135 -5.9 MS : 36 35 112 105 -6.3 MO : 153 144 524 447 -14.7 MT : 18 19 79 87 10.1 NE : 77 71 312 274 -12.2 NV : 25 25 123 122 -0.8 NH : 18 18 75 79 5.3 NJ : 16 15 65 61 -6.2 NM : 255 268 1,301 1,407 8.1 NY : 682 672 2,986 2,963 -0.8 NC : 71 67 282 281 -0.4 ND : 48 44 177 162 -8.5 OH : 263 258 1,098 1,079 -1.7 OK : 91 89 319 315 -1.3 OR : 90 90 428 426 -0.5 PA : 619 598 2,727 2,655 -2.6 RI : 1.8 1.4 6.8 5.7 -16.2 SC : 22 20 81 81 SD : 102 99 413 406 -1.7 TN : 94 91 320 315 -1.6 TX : 348 322 1,239 1,113 -10.2 UT : 97 93 438 408 -6.8 VT : 160 152 693 671 -3.2 VA : 120 118 447 447 WA : 247 247 1,420 1,418 -0.1 WV : 17 16 64 63 -1.6 WI : 1,342 1,283 5,839 5,429 -7.0 WY : 5.4 4.5 18.9 16.2 -14.3 : US 3/ : 9,229 9,101 41,161 40,619 -1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.10 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.2 487 239 34 380 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 182 81 5 179 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 15, 2001. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http://www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports by Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION There are two options for subscribing via e-mail. All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. 1) Starting with the NASS Home Page at http://www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. 2) If you do NOT have Internet access, send an e-mail message to: usda-reports@usda.mannlib.cornell.edu. In the body of the message type the word: list. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-834-0125 FAX: 703-834-0110 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.