Da 1-1 (12-01) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 14, 2001, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. November Milk Production Up 0.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 11.4 billion pounds, up 0.4 percent from November 2000. October revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds, was down 0.7 percent from October 2000. The October revision represented a decrease of 0.4 percent or 53 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,480 pounds for November, 21 pounds above November 2000. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.73 million head, 78,000 head less than November 2000, but 8000 head more than October 2001. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,188 9,157 4,640 4,511 42,630 41,306 -3.1 Apr-Jun : 9,213 9,125 4,688 4,676 43,189 42,669 -1.2 Jul-Sep : 9,229 9,099 4,460 4,466 41,161 40,634 -1.3 Oct-Dec : 9,211 4,416 40,678 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,764 7,783 1,579 1,550 12,259 12,062 -1.6 Feb : 7,766 7,767 1,506 1,431 11,694 11,112 -5.0 Mar : 7,776 7,756 1,632 1,599 12,687 12,401 -2.3 Apr : 7,789 7,744 1,593 1,570 12,411 12,158 -2.0 May : 7,799 7,745 1,636 1,632 12,758 12,638 -0.9 Jun : 7,808 7,749 1,547 1,556 12,082 12,057 -0.2 Jul : 7,821 7,745 1,561 1,552 12,205 12,020 -1.5 Aug : 7,820 7,737 1,525 1,522 11,928 11,772 -1.3 Sep : 7,820 7,723 1,464 1,474 11,451 11,387 -0.6 Oct : 7,817 7,719 1,511 1,520 11,813 11,732 -0.7 Nov : 7,805 7,727 1,459 1,480 11,385 11,436 0.4 Dec : 7,803 1,519 11,855 : Annual : 7,799 18,532 144,528 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,183 9,174 1,553 1,527 14,263 14,005 -1.8 Feb : 9,183 9,155 1,482 1,409 13,606 12,902 -5.2 Mar : 9,197 9,141 1,605 1,575 14,761 14,399 -2.5 Apr : 9,202 9,123 1,564 1,543 14,390 14,077 -2.2 May : 9,214 9,124 1,605 1,604 14,791 14,632 -1.1 Jun : 9,224 9,128 1,519 1,529 14,008 13,960 -0.3 Jul : 9,229 9,118 1,530 1,523 14,117 13,885 -1.6 Aug : 9,228 9,101 1,495 1,494 13,798 13,598 -1.4 Sep : 9,229 9,078 1,435 1,449 13,246 13,151 -0.7 Oct : 9,222 9,073 1,486 1,501 13,708 13,615 -0.7 Nov : 9,208 9,083 1,435 1,461 13,212 13,271 0.4 Dec : 9,204 1,495 13,758 : Annual : 9,210 18,204 167,658 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,550 1,650 217 231 6.5 CA : 1,550 1,611 1,670 1,690 2,589 2,723 5.2 FL : 156 152 1,200 1,185 187 180 -3.7 ID : 354 369 1,670 1,720 591 635 7.4 IL : 118 115 1,390 1,375 164 158 -3.7 IN : 148 155 1,320 1,345 195 208 6.7 IA : 215 206 1,450 1,485 312 306 -1.9 KY : 131 125 1,010 1,015 132 127 -3.8 MI : 299 299 1,540 1,525 460 456 -0.9 MN : 525 500 1,405 1,380 738 690 -6.5 MO : 151 141 1,170 1,080 177 152 -14.1 NM : 261 278 1,580 1,675 412 466 13.1 NY : 673 670 1,375 1,440 925 965 4.3 OH : 264 256 1,325 1,360 350 348 -0.6 PA : 616 596 1,425 1,460 878 870 -0.9 TX : 345 316 1,225 1,235 423 390 -7.8 VT : 158 153 1,380 1,395 218 213 -2.3 VA : 119 118 1,270 1,270 151 150 -0.7 WA : 248 247 1,765 1,780 438 440 0.5 WI : 1,334 1,280 1,370 1,350 1,828 1,728 -5.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,805 7,727 1,459 1,480 11,385 11,436 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : From : : : : : : : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,620 1,680 227 235 3.5 CA : 1,545 1,606 1,735 1,745 2,681 2,802 4.5 FL : 156 152 1,120 1,115 175 169 -3.4 ID : 356 369 1,760 1,820 627 672 7.2 IL : 119 114 1,400 1,390 167 158 -5.4 IN : 148 154 1,345 1,390 199 214 7.5 IA : 215 206 1,490 1,480 320 305 -4.7 KY : 131 126 1,040 1,030 136 130 -4.4 MI : 302 300 1,580 1,560 477 468 -1.9 MN : 530 500 1,435 1,395 761 698 -8.3 MO : 152 141 1,180 1,085 179 153 -14.5 NM : 261 273 1,690 1,750 441 478 8.4 NY : 674 670 1,430 1,470 964 985 2.2 OH : 264 256 1,360 1,380 359 353 -1.7 PA : 618 596 1,470 1,500 908 894 -1.5 TX : 345 317 1,275 1,235 440 391 -11.1 VT : 158 153 1,445 1,455 228 223 -2.2 VA : 119 118 1,285 1,290 153 152 -0.7 WA : 248 247 1,860 1,860 461 459 -0.4 WI : 1,336 1,281 1,430 1,400 1,910 1,793 -6.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,817 7,719 1,511 1,520 11,813 11,732 -0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2001 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.10 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.2 488 239 34 380 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 182 81 5 179 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 17, 2002. 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