Da 1-1 (3-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 15, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 2.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 11.4 billion pounds, up 2.8 percent from February 2001. January revised production, at 12.3 billion pounds, was up 1.8 percent from January 2001. The January revision represented an increase of 1 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,474 pounds for February, 43 pounds above February 2001. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 18,000 head less than February 2001, but 1,000 head more than January 2002. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 4,514 41,267 Apr-Jun : 9,114 4,683 42,681 Jul-Sep : 9,098 4,459 40,570 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,746 1,431 1,474 11,108 11,421 2.8 Mar : 7,743 1,599 12,384 Apr : 7,740 1,571 12,156 May : 7,749 1,632 12,647 Jun : 7,751 1,555 12,052 Jul : 7,746 1,552 12,025 Aug : 7,735 1,520 11,754 Sep : 7,730 1,472 11,376 Oct : 7,726 1,522 11,756 Nov : 7,739 1,485 11,492 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,116 1,527 1,563 13,998 14,245 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,117 1,410 1,454 12,894 13,257 2.8 Mar : 9,117 1,577 14,375 Apr : 9,110 1,545 14,078 May : 9,116 1,607 14,646 Jun : 9,117 1,531 13,957 Jul : 9,109 1,523 13,877 Aug : 9,096 1,491 13,564 Sep : 9,088 1,445 13,129 Oct : 9,086 1,498 13,611 Nov : 9,106 1,461 13,305 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,690 1,795 237 251 5.9 CA : 1,568 1,628 1,615 1,630 2,532 2,654 4.8 FL : 155 152 1,380 1,360 214 207 -3.3 ID : 357 382 1,580 1,590 564 607 7.6 IL : 117 115 1,380 1,440 161 166 3.1 IN : 151 152 1,295 1,320 196 201 2.6 IA : 215 208 1,410 1,430 303 297 -2.0 KY : 128 123 1,040 1,100 133 135 1.5 MI : 303 294 1,475 1,550 447 456 2.0 MN : 520 495 1,385 1,385 720 686 -4.7 MO : 148 139 1,070 1,150 158 160 1.3 NM : 261 290 1,550 1,610 405 467 15.3 NY : 670 675 1,320 1,390 884 938 6.1 OH : 263 261 1,320 1,380 347 360 3.7 PA : 602 583 1,420 1,460 855 851 -0.5 TX : 338 310 1,285 1,395 434 432 -0.5 VT : 153 154 1,330 1,375 203 212 4.4 VA : 118 120 1,280 1,290 151 155 2.6 WA : 247 247 1,680 1,735 415 429 3.4 WI : 1,310 1,278 1,335 1,375 1,749 1,757 0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,764 7,746 1,431 1,474 11,108 11,421 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,825 1,835 256 257 0.4 CA : 1,563 1,622 1,760 1,750 2,751 2,839 3.2 FL : 155 152 1,440 1,410 223 214 -4.0 ID : 356 380 1,740 1,750 619 665 7.4 IL : 118 115 1,470 1,550 173 178 2.9 IN : 151 153 1,455 1,430 220 219 -0.5 IA : 215 206 1,525 1,560 328 321 -2.1 KY : 130 124 1,090 1,160 142 144 1.4 MI : 303 296 1,590 1,655 482 490 1.7 MN : 520 495 1,520 1,515 790 750 -5.1 MO : 149 140 1,150 1,210 171 169 -1.2 NM : 261 290 1,680 1,740 438 505 15.3 NY : 670 675 1,450 1,510 972 1,019 4.8 OH : 264 260 1,340 1,470 354 382 7.9 PA : 607 587 1,520 1,570 923 922 -0.1 TX : 341 310 1,365 1,485 465 460 -1.1 VT : 154 154 1,450 1,510 223 233 4.5 VA : 118 120 1,380 1,390 163 167 2.5 WA : 247 247 1,845 1,880 456 464 1.8 WI : 1,322 1,279 1,445 1,465 1,910 1,874 -1.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.11 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 367 153 1 385 9 1 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 1.1 2.0 182 79 2 195 9 1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 17, 2002. 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