Da 1-1 (4-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 17, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 3.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.8 billion pounds, up 3.2 percent from March 2001. February revised production, at 11.4 billion pounds, was up 2.3 percent from February 2001. The February revision represented a decrease of 0.5 percent or 56 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,650 pounds for March, 51 pounds above March 2001. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.75 million head, 2,000 head more than March 2001, and 1,000 head more than February 2002. January-March Milk Production Up 2.4 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 42.3 billion pounds, 2.4 percent above the January-March period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the January-March quarter was 9.11 million head, 38,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,105 4,514 4,643 41,267 42,271 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 4,683 42,681 Jul-Sep : 9,098 4,459 40,570 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,745 1,599 1,650 12,384 12,778 3.2 Apr : 7,740 1,571 12,156 May : 7,749 1,632 12,647 Jun : 7,751 1,555 12,052 Jul : 7,746 1,552 12,025 Aug : 7,735 1,520 11,754 Sep : 7,730 1,472 11,376 Oct : 7,726 1,522 11,756 Nov : 7,739 1,485 11,492 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,108 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,244 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,104 1,410 1,449 12,894 13,191 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,104 1,577 1,630 14,375 14,836 3.2 Apr : 9,110 1,545 14,078 May : 9,116 1,607 14,646 Jun : 9,117 1,531 13,957 Jul : 9,109 1,523 13,877 Aug : 9,096 1,491 13,564 Sep : 9,088 1,445 13,129 Oct : 9,086 1,498 13,611 Nov : 9,106 1,461 13,305 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,855 2,055 260 288 10.8 CA : 1,572 1,631 1,790 1,825 2,814 2,977 5.8 FL : 154 152 1,580 1,540 243 234 -3.7 ID : 358 382 1,770 1,780 634 680 7.3 IL : 117 115 1,580 1,620 185 186 0.5 IN : 151 152 1,455 1,470 220 223 1.4 IA : 213 209 1,570 1,615 334 338 1.2 KY : 127 123 1,180 1,245 150 153 2.0 MI : 304 295 1,660 1,730 505 510 1.0 MN : 515 490 1,545 1,565 796 767 -3.6 MO : 148 138 1,200 1,335 178 184 3.4 NM : 261 293 1,760 1,830 459 536 16.8 NY : 670 678 1,490 1,550 998 1,051 5.3 OH : 262 260 1,410 1,540 369 400 8.4 PA : 600 581 1,580 1,630 948 947 -0.1 TX : 335 310 1,460 1,600 489 496 1.4 VT : 152 153 1,490 1,525 226 233 3.1 VA : 118 120 1,425 1,440 168 173 3.0 WA : 246 247 1,885 1,925 464 475 2.4 WI : 1,300 1,276 1,495 1,510 1,944 1,927 -0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,743 7,745 1,599 1,650 12,384 12,778 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,690 1,795 237 251 5.9 CA : 1,568 1,626 1,615 1,620 2,532 2,634 4.0 FL : 155 152 1,380 1,335 214 203 -5.1 ID : 357 382 1,580 1,580 564 604 7.1 IL : 117 115 1,380 1,440 161 166 3.1 IN : 151 152 1,295 1,320 196 201 2.6 IA : 215 208 1,410 1,430 303 297 -2.0 KY : 128 123 1,040 1,100 133 135 1.5 MI : 303 294 1,475 1,550 447 456 2.0 MN : 520 495 1,385 1,385 720 686 -4.7 MO : 148 139 1,070 1,150 158 160 1.3 NM : 261 290 1,550 1,610 405 467 15.3 NY : 670 676 1,320 1,400 884 946 7.0 OH : 263 260 1,320 1,365 347 355 2.3 PA : 602 583 1,420 1,460 855 851 -0.5 TX : 338 310 1,285 1,395 434 432 -0.5 VT : 153 154 1,330 1,375 203 212 4.4 VA : 118 120 1,280 1,290 151 155 2.6 WA : 247 247 1,680 1,735 415 429 3.4 WI : 1,310 1,278 1,335 1,350 1,749 1,725 -1.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 2000-2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 23 21 78 70 -10.3 AK : 1.0 1.2 3.41 3.72 9.1 AZ : 140 140 695 708 1.9 AR : 37 33 106 96 -9.4 CA : 1,552 1,614 7,979 8,343 4.6 CO : 90 92 483 501 3.7 CT : 26 24 115 110 -4.3 DE : 9.0 9.0 34.0 37.0 8.8 FL : 156 152 569 549 -3.5 GA : 86 86 337 342 1.5 HI : 7.6 7.4 25.9 23.2 -10.4 ID : 355 373 1,830 1,976 8.0 IL : 118 115 503 487 -3.2 IN : 150 155 627 637 1.6 IA : 215 206 953 930 -2.4 KS : 94 94 390 425 9.0 KY : 131 125 409 402 -1.7 LA : 57 54 156 145 -7.1 ME : 38 38 159 162 1.9 MD : 82 81 324 320 -1.2 MA : 21 21 87 88 1.1 MI : 300 300 1,410 1,444 2.4 MN : 527 500 2,279 2,111 -7.4 MS : 36 34 123 113 -8.1 MO : 151 141 534 466 -12.7 MT : 19 19 85 87 2.4 NE : 77 69 319 273 -14.4 NV : 25 25 120 120 NH : 18 18 75 80 6.7 NJ : 16 14 58 56 -3.4 NM : 261 280 1,289 1,434 11.2 NY : 672 674 2,824 2,932 3.8 NC : 69 66 288 285 -1.0 ND : 47 44 160 154 -3.8 OH : 264 257 1,080 1,080 OK : 91 88 314 316 0.6 OR : 90 105 410 463 12.9 PA : 616 595 2,687 2,676 -0.4 RI : 1.6 1.4 6.2 5.5 -11.3 SC : 22 20 89 88 -1.1 SD : 101 98 409 393 -3.9 TN : 94 89 340 320 -5.9 TX : 345 312 1,314 1,218 -7.3 UT : 95 93 405 408 0.7 VT : 155 154 646 667 3.3 VA : 119 119 461 464 0.7 WA : 248 247 1,347 1,355 0.6 WV : 17 16 64 61 -4.7 WI : 1,333 1,280 5,627 5,377 -4.4 WY : 5.0 4.5 17.0 16.2 -4.7 : US 3/ : 9,203 9,105 40,644 40,818 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 22 20 86 79 -8.1 AK : 1.1 1.2 3.41 4.02 17.9 AZ : 140 140 753 796 5.7 AR : 36 33 117 107 -8.5 CA : 1,568 1,626 8,097 8,450 4.4 CO : 90 95 483 513 6.2 CT : 26 24 120 116 -3.3 DE : 9.0 9.0 39.0 38.3 -1.8 FL : 155 152 680 651 -4.3 GA : 86 85 388 395 1.8 HI : 7.6 6.8 27.7 24.1 -13.0 ID : 357 381 1,817 1,949 7.3 IL : 117 115 519 530 2.1 IN : 151 152 636 643 1.1 IA : 214 208 965 956 -0.9 KS : 94 99 400 470 17.5 KY : 128 123 425 432 1.6 LA : 55 52 184 172 -6.5 ME : 37 38 159 164 3.1 MD : 82 81 327 333 1.8 MA : 21 20 89 90 1.1 MI : 303 295 1,434 1,456 1.5 MN : 518 493 2,306 2,203 -4.5 MS : 36 34 145 139 -4.1 MO : 148 139 507 513 1.2 MT : 19 18 84 84 NE : 75 68 306 283 -7.5 NV : 25 25 119 118 -0.8 NH : 18 18 80 84 5.0 NJ : 15 13 60 56 -6.7 NM : 261 291 1,302 1,508 15.8 NY : 670 676 2,854 3,016 5.7 NC : 68 65 299 298 -0.3 ND : 46 41 156 148 -5.1 OH : 263 260 1,070 1,137 6.3 OK : 90 88 326 328 0.6 OR : 90 105 393 480 22.1 PA : 603 584 2,726 2,720 -0.2 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.9 5.8 -1.7 SC : 22 20 101 100 -1.0 SD : 100 98 393 402 2.3 TN : 94 90 355 350 -1.4 TX : 338 310 1,388 1,388 UT : 93 92 394 397 0.8 VT : 153 154 652 678 4.0 VA : 118 120 482 495 2.7 WA : 247 247 1,335 1,368 2.5 WV : 16 16 61 62 1.6 WI : 1,311 1,278 5,603 5,526 -1.4 WY : 4.6 4.5 15.2 15.8 3.9 : US 3/ : 9,143 9,105 41,267 42,271 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.11 million head by more than 0.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.5 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 296 129 18 329 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.8 1.5 137 52 0 145 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 16, 2002. 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