Da 1-1 (6-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 17, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Up 3.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 13.0 billion pounds, up 3.2 percent from May 2001. April revised production, at 12.6 billion pounds, was up 3.3 percent from April 2001. The April revision represented an increase of 0.3 percent or 42 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,681 pounds for May, 49 pounds above May 2001. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 14,000 head more than May 2001, and 9,000 head more than April 2002. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,105 4,514 4,642 41,267 42,264 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 4,683 42,681 Jul-Sep : 9,098 4,459 40,570 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 3.1 Apr : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 May : 7,749 7,763 1,632 1,681 12,647 13,046 3.2 Jun : 7,751 1,555 12,052 Jul : 7,746 1,552 12,025 Aug : 7,735 1,520 11,754 Sep : 7,730 1,472 11,376 Oct : 7,726 1,522 11,756 Nov : 7,739 1,485 11,492 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,108 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,246 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,104 1,410 1,449 12,894 13,194 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,104 1,577 1,628 14,375 14,824 3.1 Apr : 9,110 9,116 1,545 1,595 14,078 14,540 3.3 May : 9,116 9,127 1,607 1,655 14,646 15,108 3.2 Jun : 9,117 1,531 13,957 Jul : 9,109 1,523 13,877 Aug : 9,096 1,491 13,564 Sep : 9,088 1,445 13,129 Oct : 9,086 1,498 13,611 Nov : 9,106 1,461 13,305 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,850 2,050 259 287 10.8 CA : 1,582 1,641 1,825 1,860 2,887 3,052 5.7 FL : 154 151 1,515 1,510 233 228 -2.1 ID : 364 384 1,830 1,820 666 699 5.0 IL : 116 115 1,610 1,630 187 187 IN : 152 152 1,490 1,550 226 236 4.4 IA : 211 209 1,610 1,630 340 341 0.3 KY : 129 123 1,200 1,250 155 154 -0.6 MI : 304 298 1,700 1,745 517 520 0.6 MN : 515 490 1,525 1,550 785 760 -3.2 MO : 148 137 1,255 1,315 186 180 -3.2 NM : 261 296 1,870 1,910 488 565 15.8 NY : 673 680 1,540 1,630 1,036 1,108 6.9 OH : 261 261 1,470 1,540 384 402 4.7 PA : 599 580 1,600 1,650 958 957 -0.1 TX : 329 310 1,450 1,565 477 485 1.7 VT : 152 154 1,545 1,565 235 241 2.6 VA : 118 120 1,415 1,450 167 174 4.2 WA : 246 247 1,950 2,000 480 494 2.9 WI : 1,295 1,275 1,530 1,550 1,981 1,976 -0.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,749 7,763 1,632 1,681 12,647 13,046 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,855 2,020 260 283 8.8 CA : 1,576 1,636 1,770 1,795 2,790 2,937 5.3 FL : 154 151 1,475 1,455 227 220 -3.1 ID : 360 382 1,740 1,740 626 665 6.2 IL : 117 115 1,555 1,610 182 185 1.6 IN : 152 152 1,435 1,485 218 226 3.7 IA : 212 209 1,545 1,585 328 331 0.9 KY : 128 123 1,180 1,240 151 153 1.3 MI : 304 296 1,620 1,675 492 496 0.8 MN : 515 490 1,495 1,525 770 747 -3.0 MO : 148 138 1,265 1,325 187 183 -2.1 NM : 261 295 1,760 1,815 459 535 16.6 NY : 670 680 1,450 1,520 972 1,034 6.4 OH : 261 260 1,390 1,470 363 382 5.2 PA : 599 581 1,540 1,600 922 930 0.9 TX : 332 310 1,435 1,580 476 490 2.9 VT : 152 154 1,455 1,495 221 230 4.1 VA : 118 120 1,380 1,410 163 169 3.7 WA : 246 247 1,860 1,910 458 472 3.1 WI : 1,295 1,275 1,460 1,480 1,891 1,887 -0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.11 million head by more than 0.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.5 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 296 129 18 329 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.8 1.5 137 52 0 145 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 17, 2002. 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