Da 1-1 (7-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 17, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. June Milk Production Up 2.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 12.3 billion pounds, up 2.0 percent from June 2001. May revised production, at 13.0 billion pounds, was up 3.0 percent from May 2001. The May revision represented a decrease of 0.2 percent or 25 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,579 pounds for June, 24 pounds above June 2001. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.78 million head, 29,000 head more than June 2001, and 16,000 head more than May 2002. April-June Milk Production Up 3.0 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 44.0 billion pounds, 3.0 percent above the April-June period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the April-June quarter was 9.15 million head, 33,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,109 4,514 4,639 41,267 42,256 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 9,147 4,683 4,805 42,681 43,950 3.0 Jul-Sep : 9,098 4,459 40,570 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 3.1 Apr : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 May : 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 3.0 Jun : 7,751 7,780 1,555 1,579 12,052 12,288 2.0 Jul : 7,746 1,552 12,025 Aug : 7,735 1,520 11,754 Sep : 7,730 1,472 11,376 Oct : 7,726 1,522 11,756 Nov : 7,739 1,485 11,492 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,110 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,245 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,109 1,410 1,448 12,894 13,190 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,109 1,577 1,627 14,375 14,821 3.1 Apr : 9,110 9,129 1,545 1,596 14,078 14,573 3.5 May : 9,116 9,145 1,607 1,653 14,646 15,114 3.2 Jun : 9,117 9,166 1,531 1,556 13,957 14,263 2.2 Jul : 9,109 1,523 13,877 Aug : 9,096 1,491 13,564 Sep : 9,088 1,445 13,129 Oct : 9,086 1,498 13,611 Nov : 9,106 1,461 13,305 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 143 1,730 1,810 242 259 7.0 CA : 1,587 1,645 1,755 1,780 2,785 2,928 5.1 FL : 154 150 1,330 1,340 205 201 -2.0 ID : 369 390 1,780 1,770 657 690 5.0 IL : 115 115 1,480 1,470 170 169 -0.6 IN : 154 151 1,420 1,450 219 219 IA : 210 210 1,495 1,510 314 317 1.0 KY : 130 125 1,075 1,080 140 135 -3.6 MI : 305 300 1,655 1,665 505 500 -1.0 MN : 510 490 1,465 1,445 747 708 -5.2 MO : 148 137 1,140 1,170 169 160 -5.3 NM : 263 298 1,790 1,810 471 539 14.4 NY : 673 680 1,490 1,540 1,003 1,047 4.4 OH : 260 264 1,370 1,430 356 378 6.2 PA : 600 582 1,520 1,535 912 893 -2.1 TX : 326 308 1,310 1,425 427 439 2.8 VT : 152 154 1,480 1,500 225 231 2.7 VA : 118 120 1,295 1,300 153 156 2.0 WA : 247 248 1,900 1,925 469 477 1.7 WI : 1,290 1,270 1,460 1,450 1,883 1,842 -2.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,751 7,780 1,555 1,579 12,052 12,288 2.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 140 1,850 2,050 259 287 10.8 CA : 1,582 1,640 1,825 1,875 2,887 3,075 6.5 FL : 154 151 1,515 1,460 233 220 -5.6 ID : 364 387 1,830 1,820 666 704 5.7 IL : 116 115 1,610 1,630 187 187 IN : 152 152 1,490 1,550 226 236 4.4 IA : 211 209 1,610 1,630 340 341 0.3 KY : 129 123 1,200 1,230 155 151 -2.6 MI : 304 298 1,700 1,745 517 520 0.6 MN : 515 490 1,525 1,550 785 760 -3.2 MO : 148 137 1,255 1,315 186 180 -3.2 NM : 261 296 1,870 1,910 488 565 15.8 NY : 673 680 1,540 1,610 1,036 1,095 5.7 OH : 261 263 1,470 1,540 384 405 5.5 PA : 599 580 1,600 1,650 958 957 -0.1 TX : 329 310 1,450 1,565 477 485 1.7 VT : 152 154 1,545 1,565 235 241 2.6 VA : 118 120 1,415 1,425 167 171 2.4 WA : 246 247 1,950 2,005 480 495 3.1 WI : 1,295 1,272 1,530 1,530 1,981 1,946 -1.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised January-March, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 22 20 86 79 -8.1 AK : 1.1 1.2 3.41 4.02 17.9 AZ : 140 140 753 796 5.7 AR : 36 33 117 107 -8.5 CA : 1,568 1,626 8,097 8,458 4.5 CO : 90 97 483 521 7.9 CT : 26 24 120 116 -3.3 DE : 9.0 9.5 39.0 40.4 3.6 FL : 155 152 680 644 -5.3 GA : 86 85 388 395 1.8 HI : 7.6 6.8 27.7 24.1 -13.0 ID : 357 381 1,817 1,940 6.8 IL : 117 115 519 530 2.1 IN : 151 152 636 646 1.6 IA : 214 208 965 956 -0.9 KS : 94 100 400 480 20.0 KY : 128 123 425 432 1.6 LA : 55 52 184 172 -6.5 ME : 37 38 159 164 3.1 MD : 82 81 327 333 1.8 MA : 21 21 89 91 2.2 MI : 303 295 1,434 1,456 1.5 MN : 518 493 2,306 2,200 -4.6 MS : 36 34 145 139 -4.1 MO : 148 139 507 513 1.2 MT : 19 18 84 83 -1.2 NE : 75 68 306 283 -7.5 NV : 25 25 119 118 -0.8 NH : 18 18 80 84 5.0 NJ : 15 13 60 59 -1.7 NM : 261 291 1,302 1,508 15.8 NY : 670 676 2,854 3,023 5.9 NC : 68 65 299 298 -0.3 ND : 46 41 156 148 -5.1 OH : 263 260 1,070 1,127 5.3 OK : 90 88 326 328 0.6 OR : 90 105 393 481 22.4 PA : 603 584 2,726 2,720 -0.2 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.9 5.8 -1.7 SC : 22 20 101 102 1.0 SD : 100 97 393 373 -5.1 TN : 94 90 355 350 -1.4 TX : 338 310 1,388 1,388 UT : 93 93 394 392 -0.5 VT : 153 154 652 681 4.4 VA : 118 120 482 496 2.9 WA : 247 247 1,335 1,368 2.5 WV : 16 16 61 62 1.6 WI : 1,311 1,278 5,603 5,526 -1.4 WY : 4.6 4.5 15.2 15.8 3.9 : US 3/ : 9,143 9,109 41,267 42,256 2.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary April-June, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 21 20 81 76 -6.2 AK : 1.1 1.2 3.62 4.36 20.4 AZ : 140 141 761 829 8.9 AR : 35 33 124 111 -10.5 CA : 1,582 1,640 8,462 8,940 5.6 CO : 91 102 497 555 11.7 CT : 25 24 118 117 -0.8 DE : 9.0 9.5 38.0 41.0 7.9 FL : 154 151 665 641 -3.6 GA : 86 85 386 401 3.9 HI : 7.5 6.8 28.9 25.9 -10.4 ID : 364 386 1,949 2,059 5.6 IL : 116 115 539 541 0.4 IN : 153 152 663 681 2.7 IA : 211 209 982 989 0.7 KS : 91 104 410 520 26.8 KY : 129 124 446 439 -1.6 LA : 54 51 172 158 -8.1 ME : 38 38 167 171 2.4 MD : 82 81 330 343 3.9 MA : 21 21 92 94 2.2 MI : 304 298 1,514 1,516 0.1 MN : 513 490 2,302 2,215 -3.8 MS : 36 34 137 133 -2.9 MO : 148 137 542 523 -3.5 MT : 19 18 87 85 -2.3 NE : 73 67 302 284 -6.0 NV : 25 25 124 123 -0.8 NH : 18 18 84 84 NJ : 14 13 60 61 1.7 NM : 262 296 1,418 1,639 15.6 NY : 672 680 3,011 3,176 5.5 NC : 68 65 299 302 1.0 ND : 46 40 168 152 -9.5 OH : 261 262 1,103 1,165 5.6 OK : 90 88 336 334 -0.6 OR : 90 115 428 559 30.6 PA : 599 581 2,792 2,780 -0.4 RI : 1.4 1.4 6.1 6.2 1.6 SC : 21 20 98 99 1.0 SD : 99 97 401 383 -4.5 TN : 93 90 355 355 TX : 329 309 1,380 1,414 2.5 UT : 93 94 414 428 3.4 VT : 152 154 681 702 3.1 VA : 118 120 483 496 2.7 WA : 246 247 1,407 1,444 2.6 WV : 16 16 64 64 WI : 1,293 1,272 5,755 5,675 -1.4 WY : 4.4 4.6 15.4 17.0 10.4 : US 3/ : 9,114 9,147 42,681 43,950 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.6 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 308 116 3 264 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.9 1.6 146 56 1 159 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on August 15, 2002. 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