Da 1-1 (9-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 17, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 3.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 12.2 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent from August 2001. July revised production, at 12.3 billion pounds, was up 2.3 percent from July 2001. The July revision represented an increase 1 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,568 pounds for August, 48 pounds above August 2001. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.79 million head, 51,000 head more than August 2001, and 3,000 head more than July 2002. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,109 4,514 4,639 41,267 42,256 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 9,147 4,683 4,808 42,681 43,977 3.0 Jul-Sep : 9,098 4,459 40,570 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 3.1 Apr : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 May : 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 3.0 Jun : 7,751 7,779 1,555 1,583 12,052 12,315 2.2 Jul : 7,746 7,783 1,552 1,581 12,025 12,306 2.3 Aug : 7,735 7,786 1,520 1,568 11,754 12,205 3.8 Sep : 7,730 1,472 11,376 Oct : 7,726 1,522 11,756 Nov : 7,739 1,485 11,492 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,110 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,245 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,109 1,410 1,448 12,894 13,190 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,109 1,577 1,627 14,375 14,821 3.1 Apr : 9,110 9,129 1,545 1,596 14,078 14,573 3.5 May : 9,116 9,145 1,607 1,653 14,646 15,114 3.2 Jun : 9,117 9,166 1,531 1,559 13,957 14,290 2.4 Jul : 9,109 9,172 1,523 1,551 13,877 14,224 2.5 Aug : 9,096 9,176 1,491 1,537 13,564 14,107 4.0 Sep : 9,088 1,445 13,129 Oct : 9,086 1,498 13,611 Nov : 9,106 1,461 13,305 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 150 1,520 1,775 213 266 24.9 CA : 1,598 1,652 1,765 1,815 2,820 2,998 6.3 FL : 153 149 1,115 1,145 171 171 ID : 370 392 1,840 1,820 681 713 4.7 IL : 115 115 1,370 1,395 158 160 1.3 IN : 154 150 1,345 1,410 207 212 2.4 IA : 207 210 1,475 1,480 305 311 2.0 KY : 128 122 1,000 1,025 128 125 -2.3 MI : 303 301 1,615 1,680 489 506 3.5 MN : 505 485 1,385 1,410 699 684 -2.1 MO : 144 136 975 1,090 140 148 5.7 NM : 268 305 1,770 1,765 474 538 13.5 NY : 673 677 1,480 1,520 996 1,029 3.3 OH : 258 264 1,380 1,390 356 367 3.1 PA : 598 585 1,480 1,515 885 886 0.1 TX : 322 308 1,140 1,290 367 397 8.2 VT : 152 154 1,460 1,450 222 223 0.5 VA : 118 120 1,260 1,275 149 153 2.7 WA : 247 248 1,945 1,965 480 487 1.5 WI : 1,282 1,263 1,415 1,450 1,814 1,831 0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,735 7,786 1,520 1,568 11,754 12,205 3.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 148 1,740 1,845 244 273 11.9 CA : 1,592 1,647 1,770 1,810 2,818 2,981 5.8 FL : 153 149 1,235 1,250 189 186 -1.6 ID : 370 392 1,840 1,810 681 710 4.3 IL : 115 115 1,405 1,420 162 163 0.6 IN : 154 151 1,395 1,435 215 217 0.9 IA : 209 210 1,475 1,495 308 314 1.9 KY : 129 123 1,045 1,035 135 127 -5.9 MI : 303 301 1,645 1,665 498 501 0.6 MN : 510 485 1,415 1,405 722 681 -5.7 MO : 146 137 1,055 1,120 154 153 -0.6 NM : 265 303 1,790 1,810 474 548 15.6 NY : 673 679 1,520 1,550 1,023 1,052 2.8 OH : 258 264 1,420 1,430 366 378 3.3 PA : 600 584 1,510 1,525 906 891 -1.7 TX : 324 308 1,205 1,350 390 416 6.7 VT : 152 154 1,505 1,480 229 228 -0.4 VA : 118 120 1,300 1,275 153 153 WA : 247 248 1,960 1,965 484 487 0.6 WI : 1,288 1,265 1,455 1,460 1,874 1,847 -1.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,746 7,783 1,552 1,581 12,025 12,306 2.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates using survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.6 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 308 116 3 264 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.9 1.6 146 56 1 159 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 17, 2002. 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