Da 1-1 (10-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 17, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Up 3.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from September 2001. August revised production, at 12.2 billion pounds, was up 4.1 percent from August 2001. The August revision represented an increase of 0.2 percent or 27 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,510 pounds for September, 38 pounds above September 2001. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.79 million head, 56,000 head more than September 2001, but 4,000 head less than August 2002. July-September Milk Production Up 3.4 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 42.0 billion pounds, 3.4 percent above the July-September period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.16 million head, 61,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,109 4,514 4,639 41,267 42,256 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 9,145 4,683 4,806 42,681 43,954 3.0 Jul-Sep : 9,098 9,159 4,459 4,582 40,570 41,965 3.4 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 3.1 Apr : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 May : 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 3.0 Jun : 7,751 7,779 1,555 1,583 12,052 12,315 2.2 Jul : 7,746 7,783 1,552 1,581 12,025 12,306 2.3 Aug : 7,735 7,790 1,520 1,570 11,754 12,232 4.1 Sep : 7,730 7,786 1,472 1,510 11,376 11,754 3.3 Oct : 7,726 1,522 11,756 Nov : 7,739 1,485 11,492 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,110 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,245 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,109 1,410 1,448 12,894 13,190 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,109 1,577 1,627 14,375 14,821 3.1 Apr : 9,110 9,129 1,545 1,595 14,078 14,564 3.5 May : 9,116 9,145 1,607 1,652 14,646 15,105 3.1 Jun : 9,117 9,161 1,531 1,559 13,957 14,285 2.4 Jul : 9,109 9,161 1,523 1,553 13,877 14,230 2.5 Aug : 9,096 9,162 1,491 1,544 13,564 14,143 4.3 Sep : 9,088 9,155 1,445 1,485 13,129 13,592 3.5 Oct : 9,086 1,498 13,611 Nov : 9,106 1,461 13,305 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 150 1,545 1,665 216 250 15.7 CA : 1,604 1,655 1,690 1,735 2,711 2,871 5.9 FL : 152 148 1,030 1,060 157 157 ID : 369 396 1,770 1,750 653 693 6.1 IL : 115 115 1,345 1,365 155 157 1.3 IN : 154 149 1,310 1,370 202 204 1.0 IA : 206 209 1,430 1,425 295 298 1.0 KY : 127 120 975 1,000 124 120 -3.2 MI : 303 300 1,570 1,605 476 482 1.3 MN : 505 480 1,330 1,330 672 638 -5.1 MO : 142 136 985 1,050 140 143 2.1 NM : 270 305 1,700 1,700 459 519 13.1 NY : 673 676 1,430 1,470 962 994 3.3 OH : 257 264 1,340 1,350 344 356 3.5 PA : 596 587 1,450 1,460 864 857 -0.8 TX : 318 309 1,120 1,260 356 389 9.3 VT : 152 153 1,420 1,400 216 214 -0.9 VA : 118 119 1,230 1,235 145 147 1.4 WA : 247 247 1,835 1,855 453 458 1.1 WI : 1,282 1,268 1,385 1,425 1,776 1,807 1.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,730 7,786 1,472 1,510 11,376 11,754 3.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 150 1,520 1,775 213 266 24.9 CA : 1,598 1,652 1,765 1,810 2,820 2,990 6.0 FL : 153 149 1,115 1,195 171 178 4.1 ID : 370 395 1,840 1,830 681 723 6.2 IL : 115 115 1,370 1,395 158 160 1.3 IN : 154 150 1,345 1,410 207 212 2.4 IA : 207 210 1,475 1,480 305 311 2.0 KY : 128 122 1,000 1,025 128 125 -2.3 MI : 303 301 1,615 1,680 489 506 3.5 MN : 505 485 1,385 1,410 699 684 -2.1 MO : 144 136 975 1,090 140 148 5.7 NM : 268 305 1,770 1,765 474 538 13.5 NY : 673 677 1,480 1,510 996 1,022 2.6 OH : 258 264 1,380 1,390 356 367 3.1 PA : 598 585 1,480 1,515 885 886 0.1 TX : 322 308 1,140 1,290 367 397 8.2 VT : 152 154 1,460 1,450 222 223 0.5 VA : 118 119 1,260 1,250 149 149 WA : 247 248 1,945 1,965 480 487 1.5 WI : 1,282 1,265 1,415 1,470 1,814 1,860 2.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,735 7,790 1,520 1,570 11,754 12,232 4.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 21 20 81 76 -6.2 AK : 1.1 1.2 3.62 4.36 20.4 AZ : 140 141 761 829 8.9 AR : 35 33 124 111 -10.5 CA : 1,582 1,640 8,462 8,973 6.0 CO : 91 102 497 548 10.3 CT : 25 24 118 117 -0.8 DE : 9.0 9.5 38.0 41.0 7.9 FL : 154 151 665 641 -3.6 GA : 86 85 386 401 3.9 HI : 7.5 6.8 28.9 25.9 -10.4 ID : 364 387 1,949 2,061 5.7 IL : 116 115 539 541 0.4 IN : 153 152 663 681 2.7 IA : 211 209 982 989 0.7 KS : 91 104 410 520 26.8 KY : 129 123 446 437 -2.0 LA : 54 51 172 158 -8.1 ME : 38 38 167 171 2.4 MD : 82 81 330 343 3.9 MA : 21 21 92 94 2.2 MI : 304 298 1,514 1,516 0.1 MN : 513 490 2,302 2,215 -3.8 MS : 36 34 137 133 -2.9 MO : 148 137 542 523 -3.5 MT : 19 18 87 86 -1.1 NE : 73 67 302 296 -2.0 NV : 25 25 124 123 -0.8 NH : 18 18 84 84 NJ : 14 13 60 61 1.7 NM : 262 296 1,418 1,639 15.6 NY : 672 680 3,011 3,176 5.5 NC : 68 65 299 302 1.0 ND : 46 40 168 152 -9.5 OH : 261 262 1,103 1,159 5.1 OK : 90 88 336 334 -0.6 OR : 90 115 428 543 26.9 PA : 599 581 2,792 2,780 -0.4 RI : 1.4 1.4 6.1 6.2 1.6 SC : 21 20 98 99 1.0 SD : 99 97 401 369 -8.0 TN : 93 90 355 360 1.4 TX : 329 309 1,380 1,414 2.5 UT : 93 92 414 424 2.4 VT : 152 154 681 702 3.1 VA : 118 120 483 496 2.7 WA : 246 247 1,407 1,444 2.6 WV : 16 16 64 64 WI : 1,293 1,272 5,755 5,675 -1.4 WY : 4.4 4.6 15.4 17.0 10.4 : US 3/ : 9,114 9,145 42,681 43,954 3.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 21 20 63 59 -6.3 AK : 1.1 1.3 3.61 4.94 36.8 AZ : 140 149 673 789 17.2 AR : 34 32 95 90 -5.3 CA : 1,598 1,651 8,349 8,842 5.9 CO : 92 103 489 558 14.1 CT : 24 24 108 108 DE : 9.0 9.0 37.0 38.1 3.0 FL : 153 149 517 521 0.8 GA : 86 84 315 330 4.8 HI : 7.4 6.5 26.0 24.1 -7.3 ID : 370 394 2,015 2,126 5.5 IL : 115 115 475 480 1.1 IN : 154 150 624 633 1.4 IA : 207 210 908 923 1.7 KS : 91 104 375 500 33.3 KY : 128 122 387 372 -3.9 LA : 54 50 131 125 -4.6 ME : 38 37 166 164 -1.2 MD : 82 80 317 324 2.2 MA : 21 20 89 89 MI : 303 301 1,463 1,489 1.8 MN : 507 483 2,093 2,003 -4.3 MS : 35 34 102 101 -1.0 MO : 144 136 434 444 2.3 MT : 19 18 88 88 NE : 70 67 275 283 2.9 NV : 25 25 122 123 0.8 NH : 18 17 79 79 NJ : 14 13 57 56 -1.8 NM : 268 304 1,407 1,605 14.1 NY : 673 677 2,981 3,068 2.9 NC : 67 64 281 270 -3.9 ND : 46 39 166 145 -12.7 OH : 258 264 1,066 1,101 3.3 OK : 89 88 315 316 0.3 OR : 93 120 433 553 27.7 PA : 598 585 2,655 2,634 -0.8 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.7 5.6 -1.8 SC : 20 20 80 80 SD : 99 96 393 346 -12.0 TN : 90 88 305 305 TX : 321 308 1,113 1,202 8.0 UT : 93 93 419 432 3.1 VT : 152 154 667 665 -0.3 VA : 118 119 447 449 0.4 WA : 247 248 1,417 1,432 1.1 WV : 16 15 63 60 -4.8 WI : 1,284 1,266 5,464 5,514 0.9 WY : 4.5 4.5 16.2 16.7 3.1 : US 3/ : 9,098 9,159 40,570 41,965 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.7 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.2 504 226 34 380 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.9 1.7 156 64 3 171 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 15, 2002. 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