Da 1-1 (12-02) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 16, 2002, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. November Milk Production Up 1.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 11.7 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from November 2001. October revised production, at 12.0 billion pounds, was up 2.1 percent from October 2001. The October revision represented a decrease of 26 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,501 pounds for November, 16 pounds above November 2001. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.79 million head, 54,000 head more than November 2001, and 1,000 head more than October 2002. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,109 4,514 4,639 41,267 42,256 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 9,145 4,683 4,806 42,681 43,954 3.0 Jul-Sep : 9,098 9,159 4,459 4,572 40,570 41,874 3.2 Oct-Dec : 9,105 4,483 40,818 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 3.1 Apr : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 May : 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 3.0 Jun : 7,751 7,779 1,555 1,583 12,052 12,315 2.2 Jul : 7,746 7,783 1,552 1,581 12,025 12,306 2.3 Aug : 7,735 7,790 1,520 1,570 11,754 12,232 4.1 Sep : 7,730 7,785 1,472 1,498 11,376 11,663 2.5 Oct : 7,726 7,792 1,522 1,541 11,756 12,004 2.1 Nov : 7,739 7,793 1,485 1,501 11,492 11,697 1.8 Dec : 7,750 1,549 12,008 : Annual : 7,746 18,438 142,817 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,110 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,245 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,109 1,410 1,448 12,894 13,190 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,109 1,577 1,627 14,375 14,821 3.1 Apr : 9,110 9,129 1,545 1,595 14,078 14,564 3.5 May : 9,116 9,145 1,607 1,652 14,646 15,105 3.1 Jun : 9,117 9,161 1,531 1,559 13,957 14,285 2.4 Jul : 9,109 9,161 1,523 1,553 13,877 14,230 2.5 Aug : 9,096 9,162 1,491 1,545 13,564 14,154 4.3 Sep : 9,088 9,155 1,445 1,474 13,129 13,490 2.7 Oct : 9,086 9,165 1,498 1,518 13,611 13,910 2.2 Nov : 9,106 9,167 1,461 1,479 13,305 13,555 1.9 Dec : 9,122 1,524 13,902 : Annual : 9,115 18,139 165,336 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ 3/ : 140 150 1,660 1,795 232 269 15.9 CA : 1,614 1,670 1,685 1,700 2,720 2,839 4.4 FL : 152 147 1,170 1,175 178 173 -2.8 ID : 372 390 1,730 1,690 644 659 2.3 IL : 115 115 1,375 1,420 158 163 3.2 IN : 155 148 1,350 1,400 209 207 -1.0 IA : 206 208 1,485 1,470 306 306 KY : 125 120 1,050 1,000 131 120 -8.4 MI : 301 301 1,575 1,610 474 485 2.3 MN : 500 480 1,365 1,350 683 648 -5.1 MO : 141 135 1,080 1,110 152 150 -1.3 NM : 280 305 1,665 1,650 466 503 7.9 NY : 674 675 1,430 1,430 964 965 0.1 OH : 256 264 1,370 1,370 351 362 3.1 PA : 596 591 1,460 1,460 870 863 -0.8 TX : 312 309 1,275 1,350 398 417 4.8 VT : 154 153 1,405 1,395 216 213 -1.4 VA : 119 119 1,285 1,260 153 150 -2.0 WA : 247 247 1,780 1,800 440 445 1.1 WI : 1,280 1,266 1,365 1,390 1,747 1,760 0.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,739 7,793 1,485 1,501 11,492 11,697 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Preliminary revisions for Arizona indicate milk production at 250 million pounds for November 2001. This preliminary revision is not included in the 20-State total. Annual revisions will be published in February 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ 4/ : 140 150 1,670 1,745 234 262 12.0 CA : 1,609 1,664 1,745 1,760 2,808 2,929 4.3 FL : 152 147 1,120 1,110 170 163 -4.1 ID : 369 391 1,820 1,760 672 688 2.4 IL : 114 115 1,390 1,430 158 164 3.8 IN : 154 149 1,375 1,420 212 212 IA : 206 208 1,480 1,480 305 308 1.0 KY : 126 120 1,030 1,025 130 123 -5.4 MI : 302 300 1,600 1,650 483 495 2.5 MN : 500 480 1,395 1,390 698 667 -4.4 MO : 141 136 1,085 1,120 153 152 -0.7 NM : 273 305 1,750 1,750 478 534 11.7 NY : 673 676 1,470 1,490 989 1,007 1.8 OH : 257 264 1,380 1,395 355 368 3.7 PA : 596 591 1,500 1,495 894 884 -1.1 TX : 315 309 1,240 1,350 391 417 6.6 VT : 153 153 1,450 1,425 222 218 -1.8 VA : 118 119 1,290 1,260 152 150 -1.3 WA : 247 247 1,860 1,870 459 462 0.7 WI : 1,281 1,268 1,400 1,420 1,793 1,801 0.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,726 7,792 1,522 1,541 11,756 12,004 2.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 4/ Preliminary revisions for Arizona indicate milk production at 251 million pounds for October 2001. This preliminary revision is not included in the 20-State total. Annual revisions will be published in February 2003. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.7 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.7 1.2 502 226 34 380 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.9 1.7 156 64 3 171 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 17, 2003. 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