Da 1-1 (1-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Up 1.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 12.2 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from December 2001. November revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds, was up 1.4 percent from November 2001. The November revision represented a decrease of 0.4 percent or 43 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,567 pounds for December, 18 pounds above December 2001. The number of cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.80 million head, 47,000 head more than December 2001, and 6,000 head more than November 2002. October-December Milk Production Up 1.7 Percent The quarterly production of milk for the U.S. was 41.5 billion pounds, 1.7 percent above the October-December period last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.15 million head, 43,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,143 9,109 4,514 4,639 41,267 42,256 2.4 Apr-Jun : 9,114 9,145 4,683 4,806 42,681 43,954 3.0 Jul-Sep : 9,098 9,155 4,459 4,571 40,570 41,845 3.1 Oct-Dec : 9,105 9,148 4,483 4,538 40,818 41,511 1.7 : Annual : 9,115 9,139 18,139 18,554 165,336 169,566 2.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 Month : : : : : : : Change -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,784 7,745 1,549 1,585 12,059 12,272 1.8 Feb : 7,764 7,744 1,431 1,468 11,108 11,365 2.3 Mar : 7,743 7,744 1,599 1,649 12,384 12,771 3.1 Apr : 7,740 7,754 1,571 1,619 12,156 12,555 3.3 May : 7,749 7,764 1,632 1,677 12,647 13,021 3.0 Jun : 7,751 7,779 1,555 1,583 12,052 12,315 2.2 Jul : 7,746 7,783 1,552 1,581 12,025 12,306 2.3 Aug : 7,735 7,790 1,520 1,570 11,754 12,232 4.1 Sep : 7,730 7,785 1,472 1,498 11,376 11,663 2.5 Oct : 7,726 7,792 1,522 1,541 11,756 12,004 2.1 Nov : 7,739 7,791 1,485 1,496 11,492 11,654 1.4 Dec : 7,750 7,797 1,549 1,567 12,008 12,220 1.8 : Annual : 7,746 7,772 18,438 18,834 142,817 146,378 2.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,169 9,110 1,527 1,564 13,998 14,245 1.8 Feb : 9,143 9,109 1,410 1,448 12,894 13,190 2.3 Mar : 9,117 9,109 1,577 1,627 14,375 14,821 3.1 Apr : 9,110 9,129 1,545 1,595 14,078 14,564 3.5 May : 9,116 9,145 1,607 1,652 14,646 15,105 3.1 Jun : 9,117 9,161 1,531 1,559 13,957 14,285 2.4 Jul : 9,109 9,159 1,523 1,553 13,877 14,224 2.5 Aug : 9,096 9,159 1,491 1,544 13,564 14,139 4.2 Sep : 9,088 9,146 1,445 1,474 13,129 13,482 2.7 Oct : 9,086 9,150 1,498 1,518 13,611 13,889 2.0 Nov : 9,106 9,145 1,461 1,474 13,305 13,483 1.3 Dec : 9,122 9,148 1,524 1,546 13,902 14,139 1.7 : Annual : 9,115 9,139 18,139 18,554 165,336 169,566 2.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ 3/ : 140 150 1,730 1,915 242 287 18.6 CA : 1,618 1,676 1,740 1,750 2,815 2,933 4.2 FL : 152 147 1,320 1,315 201 193 -4.0 ID : 377 390 1,750 1,740 660 679 2.9 IL : 115 115 1,490 1,505 171 173 1.2 IN : 155 146 1,395 1,475 216 215 -0.5 IA : 206 208 1,550 1,550 319 322 0.9 KY : 125 120 1,130 1,100 141 132 -6.4 MI : 298 301 1,635 1,675 487 504 3.5 MN : 500 480 1,460 1,465 730 703 -3.7 MO : 141 134 1,145 1,180 161 158 -1.9 NM : 288 309 1,700 1,710 490 528 7.8 NY : 675 675 1,450 1,470 979 992 1.3 OH : 258 260 1,450 1,440 374 374 PA : 592 590 1,540 1,515 912 894 -2.0 TX : 310 311 1,385 1,465 429 456 6.3 VT : 154 153 1,490 1,470 229 225 -1.7 VA : 119 119 1,335 1,310 159 156 -1.9 WA : 247 247 1,845 1,890 456 467 2.4 WI : 1,280 1,266 1,435 1,445 1,837 1,829 -0.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,750 7,797 1,549 1,567 12,008 12,220 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ Preliminary revisions for Arizona indicate milk production at 267 million pounds for December 2001. This preliminary revision is not included in the 20-State total. Annual revisions will be published in February 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2001-2002 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : From : : : : : : : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ 4/ : 140 150 1,660 1,795 232 269 15.9 CA : 1,614 1,670 1,685 1,685 2,720 2,814 3.5 FL : 152 147 1,170 1,155 178 170 -4.5 ID : 372 390 1,730 1,690 644 659 2.3 IL : 115 115 1,375 1,420 158 163 3.2 IN : 155 148 1,350 1,400 209 207 -1.0 IA : 206 208 1,485 1,470 306 306 KY : 125 120 1,050 1,020 131 122 -6.9 MI : 301 301 1,575 1,610 474 485 2.3 MN : 500 480 1,365 1,360 683 653 -4.4 MO : 141 135 1,080 1,110 152 150 -1.3 NM : 280 307 1,665 1,640 466 503 7.9 NY : 674 675 1,430 1,420 964 959 -0.5 OH : 256 260 1,370 1,350 351 351 PA : 596 591 1,460 1,460 870 863 -0.8 TX : 312 309 1,275 1,350 398 417 4.8 VT : 154 153 1,405 1,380 216 211 -2.3 VA : 119 119 1,285 1,235 153 147 -3.9 WA : 247 247 1,780 1,800 440 445 1.1 WI : 1,280 1,266 1,365 1,390 1,747 1,760 0.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,739 7,791 1,485 1,496 11,492 11,654 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2002 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 4/ Preliminary revisions for Arizona indicate milk production at 250 million pounds for November 2001. This preliminary revision is not included in the 20-State total. Annual revisions will be published in February 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 21 20 63 59 -6.3 AK : 1.1 1.3 3.61 4.94 36.8 AZ 4/ : 140 149 673 789 17.2 AR : 34 32 95 88 -7.4 CA : 1,598 1,652 8,349 8,790 5.3 CO : 92 102 489 550 12.5 CT : 24 24 108 108 DE : 9.0 9.0 37.0 35.0 -5.4 FL : 153 149 517 519 0.4 GA : 86 85 315 330 4.8 HI : 7.4 6.5 26.0 24.1 -7.3 ID : 370 393 2,015 2,111 4.8 IL : 115 115 475 480 1.1 IN : 154 150 624 633 1.4 IA : 207 210 908 923 1.7 KS : 91 104 375 500 33.3 KY : 128 122 387 371 -4.1 LA : 54 50 131 125 -4.6 ME : 38 37 166 164 -1.2 MD : 82 80 317 324 2.2 MA : 21 20 89 89 MI : 303 301 1,463 1,489 1.8 MN : 507 483 2,093 2,003 -4.3 MS : 35 34 102 101 -1.0 MO : 144 136 434 444 2.3 MT : 19 18 88 87 -1.1 NE : 70 67 275 283 2.9 NV : 25 25 122 125 2.5 NH : 18 17 79 79 NJ : 14 13 57 56 -1.8 NM : 268 304 1,407 1,605 14.1 NY : 673 677 2,981 3,061 2.7 NC : 67 64 281 270 -3.9 ND : 46 39 166 145 -12.7 OH : 258 264 1,066 1,101 3.3 OK : 89 88 315 316 0.3 OR : 93 117 433 536 23.8 PA : 598 585 2,655 2,634 -0.8 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.7 5.6 -1.8 SC : 20 20 80 80 SD : 99 96 393 346 -12.0 TN : 90 87 305 300 -1.6 TX : 321 308 1,113 1,202 8.0 UT : 93 93 419 437 4.3 VT : 152 154 667 665 -0.3 VA : 118 119 447 448 0.2 WA : 247 248 1,417 1,432 1.1 WV : 16 15 63 60 -4.8 WI : 1,284 1,266 5,464 5,501 0.7 WY : 4.5 4.4 16.2 16.3 0.6 : US 3/ : 9,098 9,155 40,570 41,845 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. 4/ Preliminary revisions for Arizona indicate milk production at 719 million pounds for the July - September 2001 quarter. This preliminary revision is not included in the 20-State total. Annual revisions will be published in February 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 21 19 70 63 -10.0 AK : 1.2 1.3 3.72 4.36 17.2 AZ 4/ : 140 150 708 818 15.5 AR : 33 31 96 87 -9.4 CA : 1,614 1,670 8,343 8,676 4.0 CO : 92 99 501 540 7.8 CT : 24 23 110 107 -2.7 DE : 9.0 9.0 37.0 36.0 -2.7 FL : 152 147 549 526 -4.2 GA : 86 85 342 346 1.2 HI : 7.4 6.6 23.2 22.7 -2.2 ID : 373 390 1,976 2,026 2.5 IL : 115 115 487 500 2.7 IN : 155 148 637 634 -0.5 IA : 206 208 930 936 0.6 KS : 94 105 425 520 22.4 KY : 125 120 402 377 -6.2 LA : 54 49 145 128 -11.7 ME : 38 36 162 157 -3.1 MD : 81 80 320 334 4.4 MA : 21 20 88 87 -1.1 MI : 300 301 1,444 1,484 2.8 MN : 500 480 2,111 2,023 -4.2 MS : 34 33 113 107 -5.3 MO : 141 135 466 460 -1.3 MT : 19 18 87 85 -2.3 NE : 69 66 273 290 6.2 NV : 25 25 120 125 4.2 NH : 18 17 80 78 -2.5 NJ : 14 13 56 55 -1.8 NM : 280 307 1,434 1,565 9.1 NY : 674 675 2,932 2,958 0.9 NC : 66 63 285 267 -6.3 ND : 44 38 154 140 -9.1 OH : 257 261 1,080 1,093 1.2 OK : 88 88 316 316 OR : 105 117 463 520 12.3 PA : 595 591 2,676 2,641 -1.3 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.5 5.4 -1.8 SC : 20 20 88 83 -5.7 SD : 98 95 393 336 -14.5 TN : 89 84 320 305 -4.7 TX : 312 310 1,218 1,290 5.9 UT : 93 92 408 416 2.0 VT : 154 153 667 654 -1.9 VA : 119 119 464 453 -2.4 WA : 247 247 1,355 1,374 1.4 WV : 16 15 61 57 -6.6 WI : 1,280 1,267 5,377 5,390 0.2 WY : 4.5 4.4 16.2 15.4 -4.9 : US 3/ : 9,105 9,148 40,818 41,511 1.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. 4/ Preliminary revisions for Arizona indicate milk production at 768 million pounds for the October - December 2001 quarter. This preliminary revision is not included in the 20-State total. Annual revisions will be published in February 2003. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.6 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 374 150 1 385 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.9 1.6 146 60 2 164 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 14, 2003. 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