Da 1-1 (3-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 1.7 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 11.6 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from February 2002. January revised production, at 12.5 billion pounds, was up 1.8 percent from January 2002. The January revision represented an increase of 1 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,485 pounds for February, 13 pounds above February 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.81 million head, 66,000 head more than February 2002, and 3,000 head more than January 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 4,653 42,397 Apr-Jun : 9,149 4,811 44,015 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,485 11,401 11,596 1.7 Mar : 7,745 1,654 12,810 Apr : 7,758 1,621 12,575 May : 7,769 1,678 13,039 Jun : 7,782 1,587 12,348 Jul : 7,781 1,578 12,281 Aug : 7,785 1,570 12,223 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,591 14,304 14,560 1.8 Feb : 9,109 9,154 1,452 1,470 13,229 13,456 1.7 Mar : 9,110 1,632 14,864 Apr : 9,132 1,597 14,580 May : 9,149 1,652 15,118 Jun : 9,166 1,562 14,317 Jul : 9,158 1,550 14,196 Aug : 9,157 1,543 14,128 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 142 150 1,970 1,915 280 287 2.5 CA : 1,626 1,686 1,620 1,635 2,634 2,757 4.7 FL : 152 147 1,335 1,345 203 198 -2.5 ID : 381 393 1,590 1,630 606 641 5.8 IL : 115 114 1,440 1,485 166 169 1.8 IN : 154 146 1,340 1,400 206 204 -1.0 IA : 208 204 1,430 1,480 297 302 1.7 KY : 123 120 1,100 1,040 135 125 -7.4 MI : 295 299 1,545 1,560 456 466 2.2 MN : 495 480 1,385 1,385 686 665 -3.1 MO : 139 133 1,150 1,150 160 153 -4.4 NM : 290 313 1,610 1,615 467 505 8.1 NY : 672 682 1,405 1,390 944 948 0.4 OH : 260 260 1,365 1,350 355 351 -1.1 PA : 583 588 1,460 1,430 851 841 -1.2 TX : 310 311 1,400 1,450 434 451 3.9 VT : 154 153 1,375 1,360 212 208 -1.9 VA : 120 118 1,290 1,250 155 148 -4.5 WA : 247 248 1,735 1,790 429 444 3.5 WI : 1,278 1,265 1,350 1,370 1,725 1,733 0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,485 11,401 11,596 1.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 140 150 2,085 2,035 292 305 4.5 CA : 1,624 1,681 1,745 1,770 2,834 2,975 5.0 FL : 152 147 1,410 1,415 214 208 -2.8 ID : 380 392 1,750 1,800 665 706 6.2 IL : 115 114 1,550 1,580 178 180 1.1 IN : 155 146 1,450 1,535 225 224 -0.4 IA : 206 207 1,560 1,595 321 330 2.8 KY : 123 120 1,170 1,115 144 134 -6.9 MI : 297 301 1,650 1,710 490 515 5.1 MN : 495 480 1,515 1,520 750 730 -2.7 MO : 140 134 1,210 1,240 169 166 -1.8 NM : 290 310 1,740 1,740 505 539 6.7 NY : 675 680 1,530 1,505 1,033 1,023 -1.0 OH : 260 260 1,480 1,445 385 376 -2.3 PA : 587 590 1,570 1,540 922 909 -1.4 TX : 310 311 1,490 1,550 462 482 4.3 VT : 154 153 1,510 1,495 233 229 -1.7 VA : 120 118 1,390 1,340 167 158 -5.4 WA : 247 248 1,880 1,910 464 474 2.2 WI : 1,279 1,265 1,465 1,490 1,874 1,885 0.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 0.9 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 0.9 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.6 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.5 0.9 374 163 1 385 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.9 1.6 146 60 2 164 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 17, 2003. 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