Da 1-1 (4-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 1.5 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 13.0 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from March 2002. February revised production, at 11.6 billion pounds, was up 1.6 percent from February 2002. The February revision represented a decrease of 8 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,664 pounds for March, 10 pounds above March 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.81 million head, 67,000 head more than March 2002, and 2,000 head more than February 2003. January-March Milk Production Up 1.3 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the January-March quarter totaled 43.0 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent from the January-March quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.16 million head, 43,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,155 4,653 4,692 42,397 42,958 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 4,811 44,015 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,812 1,654 1,664 12,810 12,996 1.5 Apr : 7,758 1,621 12,575 May : 7,769 1,678 13,039 Jun : 7,782 1,587 12,348 Jul : 7,781 1,578 12,281 Aug : 7,785 1,570 12,223 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,586 14,304 14,517 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,464 13,229 13,406 1.3 Mar : 9,110 9,157 1,632 1,642 14,864 15,035 1.2 Apr : 9,132 1,597 14,580 May : 9,149 1,652 15,118 Jun : 9,166 1,562 14,317 Jul : 9,158 1,550 14,196 Aug : 9,157 1,543 14,128 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 143 150 2,250 2,155 322 323 0.3 CA : 1,631 1,691 1,830 1,825 2,985 3,086 3.4 FL : 151 147 1,505 1,515 227 223 -1.8 ID : 381 395 1,760 1,850 671 731 8.9 IL : 115 113 1,620 1,670 186 189 1.6 IN : 153 145 1,495 1,565 229 227 -0.9 IA : 209 203 1,615 1,640 338 333 -1.5 KY : 123 120 1,245 1,150 153 138 -9.8 MI : 295 299 1,730 1,755 510 525 2.9 MN : 490 480 1,560 1,555 764 746 -2.4 MO : 138 131 1,335 1,340 184 176 -4.3 NM : 293 315 1,830 1,835 536 578 7.8 NY : 675 686 1,565 1,540 1,056 1,056 OH : 261 260 1,500 1,500 392 390 -0.5 PA : 581 585 1,630 1,600 947 936 -1.2 TX : 309 312 1,605 1,650 496 515 3.8 VT : 154 151 1,530 1,530 236 231 -2.1 VA : 120 118 1,450 1,370 174 162 -6.9 WA : 247 248 1,930 1,960 477 486 1.9 WI : 1,276 1,263 1,510 1,540 1,927 1,945 0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,745 7,812 1,654 1,664 12,810 12,996 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 142 150 1,970 1,915 280 287 2.5 CA : 1,626 1,686 1,620 1,635 2,634 2,757 4.7 FL : 152 147 1,335 1,345 203 198 -2.5 ID : 381 394 1,590 1,650 606 650 7.3 IL : 115 114 1,440 1,485 166 169 1.8 IN : 154 146 1,340 1,400 206 204 -1.0 IA : 208 204 1,430 1,480 297 302 1.7 KY : 123 120 1,100 1,000 135 120 -11.1 MI : 295 299 1,545 1,560 456 466 2.2 MN : 495 480 1,385 1,385 686 665 -3.1 MO : 139 133 1,150 1,150 160 153 -4.4 NM : 290 313 1,610 1,615 467 505 8.1 NY : 672 682 1,405 1,390 944 948 0.4 OH : 260 260 1,365 1,360 355 354 -0.3 PA : 583 588 1,460 1,430 851 841 -1.2 TX : 310 311 1,400 1,450 434 451 3.9 VT : 154 152 1,375 1,370 212 208 -1.9 VA : 120 118 1,290 1,210 155 143 -7.7 WA : 247 248 1,735 1,750 429 434 1.2 WI : 1,278 1,265 1,350 1,370 1,725 1,733 0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 2001-2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 : 2002 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 21 19 70 63 -10.0 AK : 1.2 1.3 3.72 4.36 17.2 AZ : 140 150 770 821 6.6 AR : 33 31 96 87 -9.4 CA : 1,613 1,670 8,331 8,674 4.1 CO : 93 99 501 540 7.8 CT : 24 23 110 107 -2.7 DE : 9.0 9.0 37.0 36.0 -2.7 FL : 152 147 549 528 -3.8 GA : 86 85 344 344 HI : 7.4 6.6 23.2 22.7 -2.2 ID : 373 390 1,976 2,041 3.3 IL : 115 115 487 500 2.7 IN : 155 147 650 641 -1.4 IA : 206 208 930 936 0.6 KS : 94 105 425 515 21.2 KY : 125 120 402 374 -7.0 LA : 54 49 145 128 -11.7 ME : 38 36 162 157 -3.1 MD : 81 80 320 327 2.2 MA : 21 20 88 87 -1.1 MI : 301 301 1,458 1,484 1.8 MN : 500 480 2,111 2,042 -3.3 MS : 34 33 113 105 -7.1 MO : 141 135 466 466 MT : 19 18 87 85 -2.3 NE : 69 66 283 290 2.5 NV : 25 25 120 121 0.8 NH : 18 17 80 79 -1.3 NJ : 14 13 56 57 1.8 NM : 280 306 1,434 1,564 9.1 NY : 674 678 2,962 2,973 0.4 NC : 66 63 285 267 -6.3 ND : 44 38 154 140 -9.1 OH : 257 261 1,080 1,086 0.6 OK : 88 88 316 316 OR : 105 117 463 529 14.3 PA : 595 591 2,676 2,641 -1.3 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.5 5.4 -1.8 SC : 20 20 88 83 -5.7 SD : 98 95 393 336 -14.5 TN : 89 84 320 305 -4.7 TX : 312 310 1,221 1,292 5.8 UT : 93 92 408 409 0.2 VT : 154 153 668 654 -2.1 VA : 119 119 471 451 -4.2 WA : 247 247 1,355 1,374 1.4 WV : 16 15 61 57 -6.6 WI : 1,280 1,267 5,377 5,396 0.4 WY : 4.5 4.1 16.2 14.3 -11.7 : US 3/ : 9,106 9,148 40,948 41,555 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 20 18 79 70 -11.4 AK : 1.2 1.3 4.02 4.33 7.7 AZ : 142 150 894 915 2.3 AR : 33 30 107 96 -10.3 CA : 1,627 1,686 8,453 8,818 4.3 CO : 97 101 521 552 6.0 CT : 24 23 116 108 -6.9 DE : 9.5 9.0 42.0 37.7 -10.2 FL : 152 147 644 629 -2.3 GA : 85 85 395 399 1.0 HI : 6.7 6.6 24.5 24.0 -2.0 ID : 381 394 1,942 2,087 7.5 IL : 115 114 530 538 1.5 IN : 154 146 660 655 -0.8 IA : 208 205 956 965 0.9 KS : 100 104 480 520 8.3 KY : 123 120 432 392 -9.3 LA : 51 48 170 149 -12.4 ME : 38 35 164 155 -5.5 MD : 81 79 333 331 -0.6 MA : 21 20 91 88 -3.3 MI : 296 300 1,456 1,506 3.4 MN : 493 480 2,200 2,141 -2.7 MS : 34 32 139 122 -12.2 MO : 139 133 513 495 -3.5 MT : 18 18 83 84 1.2 NE : 68 66 299 297 -0.7 NV : 25 26 118 127 7.6 NH : 18 17 84 79 -6.0 NJ : 13 13 60 57 -5.0 NM : 291 313 1,508 1,622 7.6 NY : 674 683 3,033 3,027 -0.2 NC : 65 62 298 279 -6.4 ND : 41 37 148 143 -3.4 OH : 260 260 1,132 1,120 -1.1 OK : 88 88 328 333 1.5 OR : 105 117 486 526 8.2 PA : 584 588 2,720 2,686 -1.3 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.8 5.8 SC : 20 20 102 96 -5.9 SD : 97 93 363 352 -3.0 TN : 90 82 350 325 -7.1 TX : 310 311 1,392 1,448 4.0 UT : 93 92 391 397 1.5 VT : 154 152 681 668 -1.9 VA : 120 118 496 463 -6.7 WA : 247 248 1,370 1,394 1.8 WV : 16 15 62 56 -9.7 WI : 1,278 1,264 5,526 5,563 0.7 WY : 4.5 3.9 15.8 13.3 -15.8 : US 3/ : 9,112 9,155 42,397 42,958 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.16 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 301 125 18 329 6 4 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.2 110 39 0 143 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 16, 2003. 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