Da 1-1 (5-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 16, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. April Milk Production Up 0.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 12.7 billion pounds, up 0.8 percent from April 2002. March revised production, at 13.0 billion pounds, was up 1.2 percent from March 2002. The March revision represented a decrease of 0.2 percent or 27 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,625 pounds for April, 4 pounds above April 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.80 million head, 42,000 head more than April 2002, but 11,000 head less than March 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,690 42,397 42,931 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 4,811 44,015 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,800 1,621 1,625 12,575 12,675 0.8 May : 7,769 1,678 13,039 Jun : 7,782 1,587 12,348 Jul : 7,781 1,578 12,281 Aug : 7,785 1,570 12,223 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,586 14,304 14,517 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,464 13,229 13,406 1.3 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,008 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,140 1,597 1,605 14,580 14,668 0.6 May : 9,149 1,652 15,118 Jun : 9,166 1,562 14,317 Jul : 9,158 1,550 14,196 Aug : 9,157 1,543 14,128 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 144 150 2,195 2,115 316 317 0.3 CA : 1,635 1,695 1,795 1,785 2,935 3,026 3.1 FL : 151 146 1,455 1,465 220 214 -2.7 ID : 382 395 1,740 1,800 665 711 6.9 IL : 115 111 1,610 1,610 185 179 -3.2 IN : 152 145 1,480 1,530 225 222 -1.3 IA : 209 203 1,585 1,610 331 327 -1.2 KY : 123 120 1,240 1,130 153 136 -11.1 MI : 296 300 1,675 1,695 496 509 2.6 MN : 490 475 1,510 1,485 740 705 -4.7 MO : 138 130 1,325 1,325 183 172 -6.0 NM : 295 315 1,815 1,810 535 570 6.5 NY : 680 684 1,520 1,510 1,034 1,033 -0.1 OH : 262 261 1,470 1,490 385 389 1.0 PA : 581 582 1,600 1,575 930 917 -1.4 TX : 309 312 1,585 1,640 490 512 4.5 VT : 154 150 1,495 1,495 230 224 -2.6 VA : 120 118 1,410 1,330 169 157 -7.1 WA : 247 248 1,910 1,900 472 471 -0.2 WI : 1,275 1,260 1,475 1,495 1,881 1,884 0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,758 7,800 1,621 1,625 12,575 12,675 0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 143 150 2,250 2,155 322 323 0.3 CA : 1,631 1,691 1,830 1,830 2,985 3,095 3.7 FL : 151 147 1,505 1,515 227 223 -1.8 ID : 381 395 1,760 1,850 671 731 8.9 IL : 115 113 1,620 1,670 186 189 1.6 IN : 153 145 1,495 1,565 229 227 -0.9 IA : 209 203 1,615 1,640 338 333 -1.5 KY : 123 120 1,245 1,135 153 136 -11.1 MI : 295 299 1,730 1,755 510 525 2.9 MN : 490 480 1,560 1,540 764 739 -3.3 MO : 138 131 1,335 1,340 184 176 -4.3 NM : 293 315 1,830 1,835 536 578 7.8 NY : 675 685 1,565 1,530 1,056 1,048 -0.8 OH : 261 260 1,500 1,500 392 390 -0.5 PA : 581 585 1,630 1,600 947 936 -1.2 TX : 309 312 1,605 1,650 496 515 3.8 VT : 154 151 1,530 1,530 236 231 -2.1 VA : 120 118 1,450 1,340 174 158 -9.2 WA : 247 248 1,930 1,950 477 484 1.5 WI : 1,276 1,263 1,510 1,530 1,927 1,932 0.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 301 125 18 329 6 4 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.2 110 39 0 143 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on June 17, 2003. 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