Da 1-1 (6-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Down 0.4 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 13.0 billion pounds, down 0.4 percent from May 2002. April revised production, at 12.6 billion pounds, was up 0.6 percent from April 2002. The April revision represented a decrease of 0.2 percent or 30 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,669 pounds for May, 9 pounds below May 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.79 million head, 17,000 head more than May 2002, but 12,000 head less than April 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,690 42,397 42,931 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 4,811 44,015 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,786 1,678 1,669 13,039 12,992 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 1,587 12,348 Jul : 7,781 1,578 12,281 Aug : 7,785 1,570 12,223 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,586 14,304 14,517 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,464 13,229 13,406 1.3 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,008 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,138 1,597 1,604 14,580 14,660 0.5 May : 9,149 9,123 1,652 1,650 15,118 15,048 -0.5 Jun : 9,166 1,562 14,317 Jul : 9,158 1,550 14,196 Aug : 9,157 1,543 14,128 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 145 150 2,200 2,125 319 319 CA : 1,639 1,693 1,875 1,820 3,073 3,081 0.3 FL : 151 144 1,460 1,440 220 207 -5.9 ID : 387 398 1,820 1,870 704 744 5.7 IL : 115 110 1,630 1,650 187 182 -2.7 IN : 152 144 1,545 1,580 235 228 -3.0 IA : 209 203 1,630 1,640 341 333 -2.3 KY : 123 120 1,230 1,145 151 137 -9.3 MI : 298 300 1,745 1,775 520 533 2.5 MN : 490 475 1,540 1,545 755 734 -2.8 MO : 137 130 1,315 1,345 180 175 -2.8 NM : 296 315 1,910 1,890 565 595 5.3 NY : 682 682 1,600 1,570 1,091 1,071 -1.8 OH : 263 261 1,550 1,560 408 407 -0.2 PA : 580 580 1,650 1,600 957 928 -3.0 TX : 309 312 1,570 1,645 485 513 5.8 VT : 154 150 1,570 1,555 242 233 -3.7 VA : 120 118 1,425 1,345 171 159 -7.0 WA : 247 244 2,005 1,985 495 484 -2.2 WI : 1,272 1,257 1,525 1,535 1,940 1,929 -0.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,769 7,786 1,678 1,669 13,039 12,992 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 144 150 2,195 2,115 316 317 0.3 CA : 1,635 1,693 1,795 1,780 2,935 3,014 2.7 FL : 151 145 1,455 1,435 220 208 -5.5 ID : 382 397 1,740 1,800 665 715 7.5 IL : 115 111 1,610 1,610 185 179 -3.2 IN : 152 145 1,480 1,530 225 222 -1.3 IA : 209 203 1,585 1,610 331 327 -1.2 KY : 123 120 1,240 1,140 153 137 -10.5 MI : 296 300 1,675 1,695 496 509 2.6 MN : 490 475 1,510 1,500 740 713 -3.6 MO : 138 130 1,325 1,325 183 172 -6.0 NM : 295 315 1,815 1,810 535 570 6.5 NY : 680 684 1,520 1,495 1,034 1,023 -1.1 OH : 262 261 1,470 1,490 385 389 1.0 PA : 581 582 1,600 1,575 930 917 -1.4 TX : 309 312 1,585 1,640 490 512 4.5 VT : 154 150 1,495 1,495 230 224 -2.6 VA : 120 118 1,410 1,330 169 157 -7.1 WA : 247 247 1,910 1,900 472 469 -0.6 WI : 1,275 1,260 1,475 1,485 1,881 1,871 -0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.15 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 301 125 18 329 6 4 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.2 110 39 0 143 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on July 17, 2003. 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