Da 1-1 (7-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. June Milk Production Down 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 12.3 billion pounds, down 0.1 percent from June 2002. May revised production, at 13.0 billion pounds, was down 0.4 percent from May 2002. The May revision represented a decrease of 9 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,587 pounds for June, unchanged from June 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 10,000 head less than June 2002, and 11,000 head less than May 2003. April-June Milk Production Down 0.3 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the April-June quarter totaled 43.9 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from the April-June quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.11 million head, 35,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,691 42,397 42,939 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 9,114 4,811 4,813 44,015 43,862 -0.3 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 7,772 1,587 1,587 12,348 12,333 -0.1 Jul : 7,781 1,578 12,281 Aug : 7,785 1,570 12,223 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,587 14,304 14,521 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,465 13,229 13,409 1.4 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,009 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,134 1,597 1,600 14,580 14,610 0.2 May : 9,149 9,112 1,652 1,646 15,118 15,002 -0.8 Jun : 9,166 9,097 1,562 1,567 14,317 14,250 -0.5 Jul : 9,158 1,550 14,196 Aug : 9,157 1,543 14,128 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 145 150 1,985 1,965 288 295 2.4 CA : 1,645 1,691 1,800 1,755 2,961 2,968 0.2 FL : 150 142 1,340 1,300 201 185 -8.0 ID : 391 401 1,770 1,830 692 734 6.1 IL : 115 110 1,470 1,525 169 168 -0.6 IN : 151 143 1,440 1,500 217 215 -0.9 IA : 210 201 1,510 1,550 317 312 -1.6 KY : 123 118 1,080 1,015 133 120 -9.8 MI : 300 299 1,665 1,710 500 511 2.2 MN : 490 475 1,445 1,455 708 691 -2.4 MO : 137 130 1,170 1,220 160 159 -0.6 NM : 298 315 1,810 1,795 539 565 4.8 NY : 682 681 1,530 1,490 1,043 1,015 -2.7 OH : 264 261 1,425 1,460 376 381 1.3 PA : 582 578 1,535 1,480 893 855 -4.3 TX : 307 312 1,430 1,510 439 471 7.3 VT : 154 148 1,500 1,500 231 222 -3.9 VA : 120 117 1,300 1,250 156 146 -6.4 WA : 248 244 1,925 1,915 477 467 -2.1 WI : 1,270 1,256 1,455 1,475 1,848 1,853 0.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,782 7,772 1,587 1,587 12,348 12,333 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 145 150 2,200 2,125 319 319 CA : 1,639 1,692 1,875 1,820 3,073 3,079 0.2 FL : 151 143 1,460 1,430 220 204 -7.3 ID : 387 400 1,820 1,870 704 748 6.3 IL : 115 110 1,630 1,650 187 182 -2.7 IN : 152 144 1,545 1,580 235 228 -3.0 IA : 209 203 1,630 1,640 341 333 -2.3 KY : 123 119 1,230 1,125 151 134 -11.3 MI : 298 300 1,745 1,775 520 533 2.5 MN : 490 475 1,540 1,540 755 732 -3.0 MO : 137 130 1,315 1,345 180 175 -2.8 NM : 296 315 1,910 1,890 565 595 5.3 NY : 682 682 1,600 1,560 1,091 1,064 -2.5 OH : 263 261 1,550 1,560 408 407 -0.2 PA : 580 580 1,650 1,600 957 928 -3.0 TX : 309 312 1,570 1,645 485 513 5.8 VT : 154 149 1,570 1,565 242 233 -3.7 VA : 120 117 1,425 1,350 171 158 -7.6 WA : 247 244 2,005 1,975 495 482 -2.6 WI : 1,272 1,257 1,525 1,540 1,940 1,936 -0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised January-March, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 20 18 79 70 -11.4 AK : 1.2 1.3 4.02 4.33 7.7 AZ : 142 150 894 915 2.3 AR : 33 30 107 96 -10.3 CA : 1,627 1,686 8,453 8,827 4.4 CO : 97 101 521 547 5.0 CT : 24 23 116 108 -6.9 DE : 9.5 9.0 42.0 40.5 -3.6 FL : 152 147 644 629 -2.3 GA : 85 85 395 399 1.0 HI : 6.7 6.6 24.5 24.0 -2.0 ID : 381 394 1,942 2,087 7.5 IL : 115 114 530 538 1.5 IN : 154 146 660 655 -0.8 IA : 208 205 956 965 0.9 KS : 100 104 480 535 11.5 KY : 123 120 432 390 -9.7 LA : 51 48 170 149 -12.4 ME : 38 35 164 155 -5.5 MD : 81 79 333 327 -1.8 MA : 21 20 91 88 -3.3 MI : 296 300 1,456 1,506 3.4 MN : 493 480 2,200 2,134 -3.0 MS : 34 32 139 122 -12.2 MO : 139 133 513 495 -3.5 MT : 18 18 83 85 2.4 NE : 68 66 299 297 -0.7 NV : 25 26 118 127 7.6 NH : 18 17 84 79 -6.0 NJ : 13 13 60 57 -5.0 NM : 291 313 1,508 1,622 7.6 NY : 674 682 3,033 3,019 -0.5 NC : 65 62 298 279 -6.4 ND : 41 37 148 143 -3.4 OH : 260 260 1,132 1,120 -1.1 OK : 88 88 328 333 1.5 OR : 105 117 486 526 8.2 PA : 584 588 2,720 2,686 -1.3 RI : 1.4 1.4 5.8 5.8 SC : 20 20 102 95 -6.9 SD : 97 93 363 349 -3.9 TN : 90 82 350 325 -7.1 TX : 310 311 1,392 1,448 4.0 UT : 93 92 391 399 2.0 VT : 154 152 681 668 -1.9 VA : 120 118 496 459 -7.5 WA : 247 248 1,370 1,392 1.6 WV : 16 15 62 56 -9.7 WI : 1,278 1,264 5,526 5,550 0.4 WY : 4.5 3.9 15.8 13.3 -15.8 : US 3/ : 9,112 9,154 42,397 42,939 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary April-June, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 20 18 76 69 -9.2 AK : 1.2 1.3 4.36 4.49 3.0 AZ : 145 150 923 931 0.9 AR : 33 30 111 100 -9.9 CA : 1,640 1,692 8,969 9,061 1.0 CO : 102 100 548 547 -0.2 CT : 24 22 117 106 -9.4 DE : 9.5 9.0 41.0 39.0 -4.9 FL : 151 143 641 597 -6.9 GA : 85 85 401 407 1.5 HI : 6.7 6.5 25.7 24.4 -5.1 ID : 387 399 2,061 2,197 6.6 IL : 115 110 541 529 -2.2 IN : 152 144 677 665 -1.8 IA : 209 202 989 972 -1.7 KS : 104 103 515 540 4.9 KY : 123 119 437 391 -10.5 LA : 51 47 160 143 -10.6 ME : 38 35 171 161 -5.8 MD : 81 79 343 331 -3.5 MA : 21 20 94 89 -5.3 MI : 298 300 1,516 1,553 2.4 MN : 490 475 2,203 2,136 -3.0 MS : 34 32 133 118 -11.3 MO : 137 130 523 506 -3.3 MT : 18 18 86 84 -2.3 NE : 67 65 298 293 -1.7 NV : 25 26 123 133 8.1 NH : 18 16 85 79 -7.1 NJ : 13 13 61 57 -6.6 NM : 296 315 1,639 1,730 5.6 NY : 681 682 3,168 3,102 -2.1 NC : 65 61 302 272 -9.9 ND : 40 36 152 143 -5.9 OH : 263 261 1,169 1,177 0.7 OK : 88 87 334 337 0.9 OR : 115 120 538 561 4.3 PA : 581 580 2,780 2,700 -2.9 RI : 1.4 1.3 6.1 5.8 -4.9 SC : 20 19 99 86 -13.1 SD : 97 91 365 366 0.3 TN : 90 79 360 320 -11.1 TX : 308 312 1,414 1,496 5.8 UT : 92 92 423 414 -2.1 VT : 154 149 703 679 -3.4 VA : 120 117 496 461 -7.1 WA : 247 245 1,444 1,418 -1.8 WV : 16 15 64 58 -9.4 WI : 1,272 1,258 5,669 5,660 -0.2 WY : 4.6 3.8 17.0 13.3 -21.8 : US 3/ : 9,149 9,114 44,015 43,862 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.11 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.3 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 263 103 3 264 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.3 118 40 1 145 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on August 15, 2003. 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