Da 1-1 (8-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released August 15, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. July Milk Production Up 0.6 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during July totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 0.6 percent from July 2002. June revised production, at 12.4 billion pounds, was up 0.1 percent from June 2002. The June revision represented an increase of 0.3 percent or 33 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,590 pounds for July, 12 pounds above July 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 15,000 head less than July 2002, and 9,000 head less than June 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,691 42,397 42,939 1.3 Apr-Jun 4/: 9,149 9,116 4,811 4,815 44,015 43,895 -0.3 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 4/ June 2003 revised. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 7,775 1,587 1,590 12,348 12,366 0.1 Jul : 7,781 7,766 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,350 0.6 Aug : 7,785 1,570 12,223 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,587 14,304 14,521 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,465 13,229 13,409 1.4 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,009 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,134 1,597 1,600 14,580 14,610 0.2 May : 9,149 9,113 1,652 1,646 15,118 15,002 -0.8 Jun : 9,166 9,102 1,562 1,569 14,317 14,283 -0.2 Jul : 9,158 9,087 1,550 1,568 14,196 14,245 0.3 Aug : 9,157 1,543 14,128 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 148 150 1,850 1,805 274 271 -1.1 CA : 1,647 1,693 1,810 1,750 2,981 2,963 -0.6 FL : 149 141 1,250 1,220 186 172 -7.5 ID : 392 408 1,810 1,880 710 767 8.0 IL : 115 109 1,420 1,490 163 162 -0.6 IN : 150 143 1,410 1,505 212 215 1.4 IA : 210 200 1,495 1,560 314 312 -0.6 KY : 123 115 1,035 1,005 127 116 -8.7 MI : 301 299 1,665 1,750 501 523 4.4 MN : 485 475 1,415 1,455 686 691 0.7 MO : 137 129 1,120 1,170 153 151 -1.3 NM : 303 316 1,810 1,795 548 567 3.5 NY : 680 679 1,535 1,500 1,044 1,019 -2.4 OH : 263 261 1,390 1,450 366 378 3.3 PA : 584 574 1,525 1,500 891 861 -3.4 TX : 307 312 1,355 1,430 416 446 7.2 VT : 154 148 1,480 1,505 228 223 -2.2 VA : 120 115 1,275 1,210 153 139 -9.2 WA : 248 244 1,965 1,965 487 479 -1.6 WI : 1,265 1,255 1,455 1,510 1,841 1,895 2.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,781 7,766 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,350 0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 145 150 1,985 1,965 288 295 2.4 CA : 1,645 1,691 1,800 1,750 2,961 2,959 -0.1 FL : 150 142 1,340 1,295 201 184 -8.5 ID : 391 407 1,770 1,840 692 749 8.2 IL : 115 110 1,470 1,525 169 168 -0.6 IN : 151 143 1,440 1,500 217 215 -0.9 IA : 210 201 1,510 1,550 317 312 -1.6 KY : 123 117 1,080 1,025 133 120 -9.8 MI : 300 299 1,665 1,710 500 511 2.2 MN : 490 475 1,445 1,470 708 698 -1.4 MO : 137 130 1,170 1,220 160 159 -0.6 NM : 298 315 1,810 1,795 539 565 4.8 NY : 682 680 1,530 1,490 1,043 1,013 -2.9 OH : 264 261 1,425 1,450 376 378 0.5 PA : 582 578 1,535 1,480 893 855 -4.3 TX : 307 312 1,430 1,510 439 471 7.3 VT : 154 148 1,500 1,500 231 222 -3.9 VA : 120 116 1,300 1,220 156 142 -9.0 WA : 248 244 1,925 1,910 477 466 -2.3 WI : 1,270 1,256 1,455 1,500 1,848 1,884 1.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,782 7,775 1,587 1,590 12,348 12,366 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.12 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.3 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 263 103 3 264 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.3 119 40 1 145 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on September 17, 2003. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: http:/www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at http:/www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. AUTOFAX ACCESS NASSFax service is available for some reports from your fax machine. Please call 202-720-2000, using the handset attached to your fax. Respond to the voice prompts. Document 0411 is a list of available reports. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov.