Da 1-1 (9-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Down 0.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 12.1 billion pounds, down 0.8 percent from August 2002. July revised production, at 12.3 billion pounds, was up 0.5 percent from July 2002. The July revision represented a decrease of 5 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,563 pounds for August, 7 pounds below August 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 26,000 head less than August 2002, and 6,000 head less than July 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,691 42,397 42,939 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 9,116 4,811 4,815 44,015 43,895 -0.3 Jul-Sep : 9,153 4,566 41,791 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 7,775 1,587 1,590 12,348 12,366 0.1 Jul : 7,781 7,765 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,345 0.5 Aug : 7,785 7,759 1,570 1,563 12,223 12,127 -0.8 Sep : 7,781 1,497 11,648 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,587 14,304 14,521 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,465 13,229 13,409 1.4 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,009 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,134 1,597 1,600 14,580 14,610 0.2 May : 9,149 9,113 1,652 1,646 15,118 15,002 -0.8 Jun : 9,166 9,102 1,562 1,569 14,317 14,283 -0.2 Jul : 9,158 9,084 1,550 1,568 14,196 14,240 0.3 Aug : 9,157 9,075 1,543 1,542 14,128 13,989 -1.0 Sep : 9,145 1,473 13,467 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 150 1,785 1,665 268 250 -6.7 CA : 1,651 1,696 1,810 1,740 2,988 2,951 -1.2 FL : 149 140 1,195 1,160 178 162 -9.0 ID : 395 410 1,830 1,870 723 767 6.1 IL : 115 108 1,395 1,450 160 157 -1.9 IN : 148 143 1,410 1,470 209 210 0.5 IA : 210 200 1,480 1,530 311 306 -1.6 KY : 122 113 1,025 1,000 125 113 -9.6 MI : 301 298 1,680 1,705 506 508 0.4 MN : 485 475 1,410 1,445 684 686 0.3 MO : 136 128 1,090 1,125 148 144 -2.7 NM : 305 317 1,765 1,750 538 555 3.2 NY : 676 678 1,505 1,480 1,017 1,003 -1.4 OH : 263 260 1,390 1,420 366 369 0.8 PA : 585 571 1,515 1,480 886 845 -4.6 TX : 308 312 1,290 1,340 397 418 5.3 VT : 154 148 1,450 1,450 223 215 -3.6 VA : 119 114 1,250 1,175 149 134 -10.1 WA : 248 244 1,965 1,960 487 478 -1.8 WI : 1,265 1,254 1,470 1,480 1,860 1,856 -0.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,785 7,759 1,570 1,563 12,223 12,127 -0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 148 150 1,850 1,805 274 271 -1.1 CA : 1,647 1,693 1,810 1,745 2,981 2,954 -0.9 FL : 149 141 1,250 1,215 186 171 -8.1 ID : 392 408 1,810 1,880 710 767 8.0 IL : 115 109 1,420 1,490 163 162 -0.6 IN : 150 143 1,410 1,505 212 215 1.4 IA : 210 200 1,495 1,560 314 312 -0.6 KY : 123 115 1,035 1,005 127 116 -8.7 MI : 301 299 1,665 1,750 501 523 4.4 MN : 485 475 1,415 1,470 686 698 1.7 MO : 137 129 1,120 1,170 153 151 -1.3 NM : 303 316 1,810 1,795 548 567 3.5 NY : 680 679 1,535 1,500 1,044 1,019 -2.4 OH : 263 260 1,390 1,450 366 377 3.0 PA : 584 574 1,525 1,500 891 861 -3.4 TX : 307 312 1,355 1,430 416 446 7.2 VT : 154 148 1,480 1,505 228 223 -2.2 VA : 120 115 1,275 1,200 153 138 -9.8 WA : 248 244 1,965 1,965 487 479 -1.6 WI : 1,265 1,255 1,455 1,510 1,841 1,895 2.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,781 7,765 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,345 0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.12 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.3 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 263 103 3 264 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.3 119 40 1 145 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on October 17, 2003. 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