Da 1-1 (10-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Down 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 11.6 billion pounds, down 0.1 percent from September 2002. August revised production, at 12.1 billion pounds, was down 0.9 percent from August 2002. The August revision represented a decrease of 0.1 percent or 17 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,503 pounds for September, 6 pounds more from September 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 38,000 head less than September 2002, and 7,000 head less than August 2003. July-September Milk Production Down 0.6 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the July-September quarter totaled 41.5 billion pounds, down 0.6 percent from the July-September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.07 million head, 88,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,691 42,397 42,939 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 9,114 4,811 4,814 44,015 43,872 -0.3 Jul-Sep : 9,153 9,065 4,566 4,582 41,791 41,540 -0.6 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 7,775 1,587 1,590 12,348 12,366 0.1 Jul : 7,781 7,765 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,345 0.5 Aug : 7,785 7,750 1,570 1,563 12,223 12,110 -0.9 Sep : 7,781 7,743 1,497 1,503 11,648 11,641 -0.1 Oct : 7,789 1,539 11,991 Nov : 7,792 1,496 11,657 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,587 14,304 14,521 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,465 13,229 13,409 1.4 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,009 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,133 1,597 1,599 14,580 14,602 0.2 May : 9,149 9,109 1,652 1,646 15,118 14,991 -0.8 Jun : 9,166 9,101 1,562 1,569 14,317 14,279 -0.3 Jul : 9,158 9,080 1,550 1,564 14,196 14,205 0.1 Aug : 9,157 9,063 1,543 1,538 14,128 13,938 -1.3 Sep : 9,145 9,053 1,473 1,480 13,467 13,397 -0.5 Oct : 9,147 1,516 13,866 Nov : 9,146 1,474 13,478 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 150 1,660 1,660 249 249 CA : 1,658 1,701 1,700 1,655 2,819 2,815 -0.1 FL : 148 139 1,050 1,020 155 142 -8.4 ID : 392 412 1,730 1,790 678 737 8.7 IL : 115 108 1,365 1,400 157 151 -3.8 IN : 147 144 1,375 1,425 202 205 1.5 IA : 209 200 1,425 1,470 298 294 -1.3 KY : 120 111 990 965 119 107 -10.1 MI : 300 298 1,605 1,640 482 489 1.5 MN : 480 470 1,340 1,360 643 639 -0.6 MO : 136 127 1,050 1,115 143 142 -0.7 NM : 305 318 1,700 1,705 519 542 4.4 NY : 675 673 1,455 1,420 982 956 -2.6 OH : 262 259 1,360 1,380 356 357 0.3 PA : 587 566 1,460 1,415 857 801 -6.5 TX : 310 312 1,255 1,340 389 418 7.5 VT : 153 147 1,400 1,430 214 210 -1.9 VA : 119 111 1,225 1,165 146 129 -11.6 WA : 247 244 1,855 1,860 458 454 -0.9 WI : 1,268 1,253 1,405 1,440 1,782 1,804 1.2 : 20-State : Total : 7,781 7,743 1,497 1,503 11,648 11,641 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 150 1,785 1,665 268 250 -6.7 CA : 1,651 1,697 1,810 1,740 2,988 2,953 -1.2 FL : 149 140 1,195 1,130 178 158 -11.2 ID : 395 411 1,830 1,860 723 764 5.7 IL : 115 108 1,395 1,450 160 157 -1.9 IN : 148 143 1,410 1,470 209 210 0.5 IA : 210 200 1,480 1,530 311 306 -1.6 KY : 122 112 1,025 975 125 109 -12.8 MI : 301 298 1,680 1,705 506 508 0.4 MN : 485 470 1,410 1,435 684 674 -1.5 MO : 136 128 1,090 1,125 148 144 -2.7 NM : 305 317 1,765 1,750 538 555 3.2 NY : 676 675 1,505 1,465 1,017 989 -2.8 OH : 263 260 1,390 1,420 366 369 0.8 PA : 585 571 1,515 1,480 886 845 -4.6 TX : 308 312 1,290 1,340 397 418 5.3 VT : 154 147 1,450 1,460 223 215 -3.6 VA : 119 113 1,250 1,175 149 133 -10.7 WA : 248 244 1,965 1,960 487 478 -1.8 WI : 1,265 1,254 1,470 1,495 1,860 1,875 0.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,785 7,750 1,570 1,563 12,223 12,110 -0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 20 18 76 69 -9.2 AK : 1.2 1.3 4.36 4.50 3.2 AZ : 145 150 923 931 0.9 AR : 33 29 111 97 -12.6 CA : 1,640 1,692 8,969 9,052 0.9 CO : 102 100 548 545 -0.5 CT : 24 22 117 106 -9.4 DE : 9.5 8.5 41.0 36.0 -12.2 FL : 151 143 641 596 -7.0 GA : 85 85 401 389 -3.0 HI : 6.7 6.5 25.7 24.4 -5.1 ID : 387 401 2,061 2,212 7.3 IL : 115 110 541 529 -2.2 IN : 152 144 677 665 -1.8 IA : 209 202 989 972 -1.7 KS : 104 103 515 540 4.9 KY : 123 119 437 391 -10.5 LA : 51 47 160 143 -10.6 ME : 38 35 171 161 -5.8 MD : 81 79 343 328 -4.4 MA : 21 20 94 89 -5.3 MI : 298 300 1,516 1,553 2.4 MN : 490 475 2,203 2,143 -2.7 MS : 34 31 133 118 -11.3 MO : 137 130 523 506 -3.3 MT : 18 18 86 84 -2.3 NE : 67 65 298 294 -1.3 NV : 25 26 123 133 8.1 NH : 18 16 85 79 -7.1 NJ : 13 13 61 57 -6.6 NM : 296 315 1,639 1,730 5.6 NY : 681 682 3,168 3,100 -2.1 NC : 65 61 302 272 -9.9 ND : 40 36 152 143 -5.9 OH : 263 261 1,169 1,174 0.4 OK : 88 87 334 337 0.9 OR : 115 120 538 561 4.3 PA : 581 580 2,780 2,700 -2.9 RI : 1.4 1.3 6.1 5.8 -4.9 SC : 20 19 99 87 -12.1 SD : 97 91 365 366 0.3 TN : 90 80 360 325 -9.7 TX : 308 312 1,414 1,496 5.8 UT : 92 92 423 413 -2.4 VT : 154 149 703 679 -3.4 VA : 120 117 496 457 -7.9 WA : 247 245 1,444 1,417 -1.9 WV : 16 15 64 58 -9.4 WI : 1,272 1,258 5,669 5,691 0.4 WY : 4.6 3.8 17.0 13.3 -21.8 : US 3/ : 9,149 9,114 44,015 43,872 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 20 18 59 53 -10.2 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.94 4.40 -10.9 AZ : 149 150 791 770 -2.7 AR : 32 29 88 81 -8.0 CA : 1,652 1,697 8,788 8,722 -0.8 CO : 102 100 550 542 -1.5 CT : 24 22 107 99 -7.5 DE : 9.0 8.0 35.0 31.0 -11.4 FL : 149 140 519 471 -9.2 GA : 85 85 330 320 -3.0 HI : 6.5 6.5 23.9 22.6 -5.4 ID : 393 410 2,111 2,268 7.4 IL : 115 108 480 470 -2.1 IN : 148 143 623 630 1.1 IA : 210 200 923 912 -1.2 KS : 104 103 500 500 KY : 122 113 371 332 -10.5 LA : 50 46 123 109 -11.4 ME : 37 35 164 157 -4.3 MD : 81 78 324 304 -6.2 MA : 20 18 89 79 -11.2 MI : 301 298 1,489 1,520 2.1 MN : 483 472 2,013 2,011 -0.1 MS : 34 30 101 87 -13.9 MO : 136 128 444 437 -1.6 MT : 18 18 87 85 -2.3 NE : 67 63 283 277 -2.1 NV : 25 26 123 133 8.1 NH : 17 16 80 74 -7.5 NJ : 13 13 58 53 -8.6 NM : 304 317 1,605 1,664 3.7 NY : 677 676 3,043 2,964 -2.6 NC : 64 60 270 243 -10.0 ND : 39 35 145 137 -5.5 OH : 263 260 1,088 1,103 1.4 OK : 88 86 316 316 OR : 117 120 540 555 2.8 PA : 585 570 2,634 2,507 -4.8 RI : 1.4 1.3 5.6 5.3 -5.4 SC : 20 18 80 65 -18.8 SD : 96 89 340 360 5.9 TN : 87 78 300 270 -10.0 TX : 308 312 1,202 1,282 6.7 UT : 93 91 436 413 -5.3 VT : 154 147 665 648 -2.6 VA : 119 113 448 400 -10.7 WA : 248 244 1,432 1,411 -1.5 WV : 15 15 60 56 -6.7 WI : 1,266 1,254 5,483 5,574 1.7 WY : 4.4 3.7 16.3 13.0 -20.2 : US 3/ : 9,153 9,065 41,791 41,540 -0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.07 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.4 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 457 206 34 362 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.4 127 47 5 148 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on November 17, 2003. 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