Da 1-1 (12-03) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 17, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. November Milk Production Down 0.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 11.6 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from November 2002. October revised production, at 12.0 billion pounds, was down 0.1 percent from October 2002. The October revision represented an increase of 0.1 percent or 13 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,509 pounds for November, 13 pounds above November 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.71 million head, 82,000 head less than November 2002, and 10,000 head less than October 2003. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,691 42,397 42,939 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 9,114 4,811 4,814 44,015 43,872 -0.3 Jul-Sep : 9,153 9,066 4,566 4,582 41,791 41,542 -0.6 Oct-Dec : 9,148 4,543 41,555 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 7,775 1,587 1,590 12,348 12,366 0.1 Jul : 7,781 7,765 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,345 0.5 Aug : 7,785 7,750 1,570 1,563 12,223 12,110 -0.9 Sep : 7,781 7,744 1,497 1,503 11,648 11,643 Oct : 7,789 7,720 1,539 1,552 11,991 11,978 -0.1 Nov : 7,792 7,710 1,496 1,509 11,657 11,637 -0.2 Dec : 7,801 1,575 12,290 : Annual : 7,773 18,858 146,590 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,587 14,304 14,521 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,465 13,229 13,409 1.4 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,009 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,133 1,597 1,599 14,580 14,602 0.2 May : 9,149 9,109 1,652 1,646 15,118 14,991 -0.8 Jun : 9,166 9,101 1,562 1,569 14,317 14,279 -0.3 Jul : 9,158 9,080 1,550 1,564 14,196 14,205 0.1 Aug : 9,157 9,063 1,543 1,538 14,128 13,938 -1.3 Sep : 9,145 9,054 1,473 1,480 13,467 13,399 -0.5 Oct : 9,147 9,022 1,516 1,529 13,866 13,791 -0.5 Nov : 9,146 9,007 1,474 1,488 13,478 13,398 -0.6 Dec : 9,150 1,553 14,211 : Annual : 9,141 18,571 169,758 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 150 1,800 1,835 270 275 1.9 CA : 1,669 1,706 1,685 1,655 2,812 2,823 0.4 FL : 147 140 1,155 1,130 170 158 -7.1 ID : 390 412 1,690 1,740 659 717 8.8 IL : 115 108 1,420 1,450 163 157 -3.7 IN : 147 143 1,420 1,460 209 209 IA : 208 197 1,470 1,490 306 294 -3.9 KY : 120 111 1,020 1,025 122 114 -6.6 MI : 301 298 1,610 1,635 485 487 0.4 MN : 480 465 1,380 1,400 662 651 -1.7 MO : 135 125 1,125 1,190 152 149 -2.0 NM : 305 320 1,650 1,670 503 534 6.2 NY : 678 658 1,410 1,405 956 924 -3.3 OH : 261 258 1,350 1,380 352 356 1.1 PA : 591 560 1,460 1,420 863 795 -7.9 TX : 310 311 1,345 1,460 417 454 8.9 VT : 153 146 1,380 1,415 211 207 -1.9 VA : 119 109 1,235 1,225 147 134 -8.8 WA : 247 244 1,800 1,795 445 438 -1.6 WI : 1,266 1,249 1,385 1,410 1,753 1,761 0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,792 7,710 1,496 1,509 11,657 11,637 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 150 1,750 1,790 263 269 2.3 CA : 1,664 1,703 1,760 1,705 2,929 2,904 -0.9 FL : 147 140 1,110 1,105 163 155 -4.9 ID : 391 412 1,760 1,820 688 750 9.0 IL : 115 108 1,430 1,470 164 159 -3.0 IN : 147 144 1,435 1,490 211 215 1.9 IA : 208 198 1,480 1,520 308 301 -2.3 KY : 120 111 1,025 1,035 123 115 -6.5 MI : 300 297 1,650 1,690 495 502 1.4 MN : 480 465 1,390 1,410 667 656 -1.6 MO : 136 126 1,120 1,200 152 151 -0.7 NM : 305 318 1,750 1,745 534 555 3.9 NY : 676 665 1,485 1,455 1,004 968 -3.6 OH : 262 259 1,410 1,420 369 368 -0.3 PA : 591 562 1,495 1,455 884 818 -7.5 TX : 310 311 1,350 1,450 419 451 7.6 VT : 153 147 1,425 1,450 218 213 -2.3 VA : 119 110 1,260 1,235 150 136 -9.3 WA : 247 244 1,870 1,890 462 461 -0.2 WI : 1,268 1,250 1,410 1,465 1,788 1,831 2.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,789 7,720 1,539 1,552 11,991 11,978 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.07 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.4 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 457 206 34 362 10 0 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.4 127 47 5 148 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on January 16, 2004. 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