Da 1-1 (1-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 16, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Down 0.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 12.3 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from December 2002. November revised production, at 11.7 billion pounds, was down 0.1 percent from November 2002. The November revision represented an increase of 13 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,589 pounds for December, 14 pounds above December 2002. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.71 million head, 93,000 head less than December 2002, but unchanged from November 2003. October-December Milk Production Down 0.6 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the October-December quarter totaled 41.3 billion pounds, down 0.6 percent from the October-December quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.01 million head, 141,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,112 9,154 4,653 4,691 42,397 42,939 1.3 Apr-Jun : 9,149 9,114 4,811 4,814 44,015 43,872 -0.3 Jul-Sep : 9,153 9,064 4,566 4,581 41,791 41,520 -0.6 Oct-Dec : 9,148 9,007 4,543 4,588 41,555 41,322 -0.6 : Annual : 9,141 9,085 18,571 18,674 169,758 169,653 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,749 7,807 1,591 1,607 12,327 12,548 1.8 Feb : 7,744 7,810 1,472 1,484 11,401 11,588 1.6 Mar : 7,745 7,811 1,654 1,660 12,810 12,969 1.2 Apr : 7,758 7,798 1,621 1,622 12,575 12,645 0.6 May : 7,769 7,783 1,678 1,668 13,039 12,983 -0.4 Jun : 7,782 7,775 1,587 1,590 12,348 12,366 0.1 Jul : 7,781 7,765 1,578 1,590 12,281 12,345 0.5 Aug : 7,785 7,750 1,570 1,563 12,223 12,110 -0.9 Sep : 7,781 7,744 1,497 1,503 11,648 11,643 Oct : 7,789 7,720 1,539 1,552 11,991 11,978 -0.1 Nov : 7,792 7,708 1,496 1,511 11,657 11,650 -0.1 Dec : 7,801 7,708 1,575 1,589 12,290 12,251 -0.3 : Annual : 7,773 7,765 18,858 18,941 146,590 147,076 0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2002- 2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,117 9,153 1,569 1,587 14,304 14,521 1.5 Feb : 9,109 9,155 1,452 1,465 13,229 13,409 1.4 Mar : 9,110 9,155 1,632 1,639 14,864 15,009 1.0 Apr : 9,132 9,133 1,597 1,599 14,580 14,602 0.2 May : 9,149 9,109 1,652 1,646 15,118 14,991 -0.8 Jun : 9,166 9,101 1,562 1,569 14,317 14,279 -0.3 Jul : 9,158 9,080 1,550 1,564 14,196 14,199 Aug : 9,157 9,061 1,543 1,537 14,128 13,929 -1.4 Sep : 9,145 9,052 1,473 1,480 13,467 13,392 -0.6 Oct : 9,147 9,017 1,516 1,530 13,866 13,795 -0.5 Nov : 9,146 9,002 1,474 1,490 13,478 13,417 -0.5 Dec : 9,150 9,001 1,553 1,568 14,211 14,110 -0.7 : Annual : 9,141 9,085 18,571 18,674 169,758 169,653 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 155 1,920 1,895 288 294 2.1 CA : 1,676 1,698 1,750 1,740 2,933 2,955 0.8 FL : 147 140 1,325 1,320 195 185 -5.1 ID : 390 412 1,780 1,780 694 733 5.6 IL : 115 108 1,505 1,560 173 168 -2.9 IN : 146 143 1,515 1,540 221 220 -0.5 IA : 208 196 1,550 1,560 322 306 -5.0 KY : 120 112 1,075 1,085 129 122 -5.4 MI : 301 299 1,675 1,735 504 519 3.0 MN : 480 465 1,485 1,500 713 698 -2.1 MO : 134 124 1,210 1,250 162 155 -4.3 NM : 308 324 1,710 1,730 527 561 6.5 NY : 680 657 1,490 1,485 1,013 976 -3.7 OH : 260 258 1,405 1,440 365 372 1.9 PA : 590 560 1,515 1,485 894 832 -6.9 TX : 311 317 1,465 1,575 456 499 9.4 VT : 153 146 1,470 1,500 225 219 -2.7 VA : 119 106 1,295 1,325 154 140 -9.1 WA : 247 241 1,890 1,900 467 458 -1.9 WI : 1,266 1,247 1,465 1,475 1,855 1,839 -0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,801 7,708 1,575 1,589 12,290 12,251 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2002-2003 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : From : : : : : : : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 150 153 1,800 1,800 270 275 1.9 CA : 1,669 1,696 1,685 1,665 2,812 2,824 0.4 FL : 147 140 1,155 1,170 170 164 -3.5 ID : 390 412 1,690 1,740 659 717 8.8 IL : 115 108 1,420 1,460 163 158 -3.1 IN : 147 143 1,420 1,460 209 209 IA : 208 197 1,470 1,490 306 294 -3.9 KY : 120 112 1,020 1,035 122 116 -4.9 MI : 301 298 1,610 1,640 485 489 0.8 MN : 480 465 1,380 1,390 662 646 -2.4 MO : 135 125 1,125 1,190 152 149 -2.0 NM : 305 320 1,650 1,670 503 534 6.2 NY : 678 658 1,410 1,415 956 931 -2.6 OH : 261 258 1,350 1,365 352 352 PA : 591 560 1,460 1,420 863 795 -7.9 TX : 310 317 1,345 1,430 417 453 8.6 VT : 153 146 1,380 1,415 211 207 -1.9 VA : 119 108 1,235 1,260 147 136 -7.5 WA : 247 243 1,800 1,810 445 440 -1.1 WI : 1,266 1,249 1,385 1,410 1,753 1,761 0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,792 7,708 1,496 1,511 11,657 11,650 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2003 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 20 18 59 53 -10.2 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.94 4.40 -10.9 AZ : 149 150 791 770 -2.7 AR : 32 28 88 79 -10.2 CA : 1,652 1,697 8,788 8,724 -0.7 CO : 102 100 550 545 -0.9 CT : 24 22 107 99 -7.5 DE : 9.0 8.0 35.0 31.0 -11.4 FL : 149 140 519 471 -9.2 GA : 85 85 330 319 -3.3 HI : 6.5 6.5 23.9 22.6 -5.4 ID : 393 411 2,111 2,266 7.3 IL : 115 108 480 470 -2.1 IN : 148 143 623 630 1.1 IA : 210 200 923 911 -1.3 KS : 104 106 500 504 0.8 KY : 122 113 371 333 -10.2 LA : 50 46 123 109 -11.4 ME : 37 35 164 157 -4.3 MD : 81 78 324 304 -6.2 MA : 20 18 89 79 -11.2 MI : 301 298 1,489 1,520 2.1 MN : 483 472 2,013 2,011 -0.1 MS : 34 30 101 87 -13.9 MO : 136 128 444 437 -1.6 MT : 18 18 87 85 -2.3 NE : 67 63 283 268 -5.3 NV : 25 26 123 133 8.1 NH : 17 16 80 74 -7.5 NJ : 13 12 58 52 -10.3 NM : 304 317 1,605 1,664 3.7 NY : 677 676 3,043 2,964 -2.6 NC : 64 60 270 243 -10.0 ND : 39 35 145 137 -5.5 OH : 263 260 1,088 1,103 1.4 OK : 88 84 316 309 -2.2 OR : 117 120 540 555 2.8 PA : 585 570 2,634 2,507 -4.8 RI : 1.4 1.3 5.6 5.3 -5.4 SC : 20 18 80 64 -20.0 SD : 96 89 340 360 5.9 TN : 87 78 300 270 -10.0 TX : 308 312 1,202 1,282 6.7 UT : 93 90 436 405 -7.1 VT : 154 147 665 648 -2.6 VA : 119 113 448 401 -10.5 WA : 248 244 1,432 1,412 -1.4 WV : 15 15 60 56 -6.7 WI : 1,266 1,254 5,483 5,574 1.7 WY : 4.4 3.7 16.3 13.0 -20.2 : US 3/ : 9,153 9,064 41,791 41,520 -0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 19 18 63 60 -4.8 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.36 3.50 -19.7 AZ : 150 153 821 838 2.1 AR : 31 28 87 80 -8.0 CA : 1,670 1,699 8,674 8,683 0.1 CO : 99 99 540 540 CT : 23 21 107 98 -8.4 DE : 9.0 8.0 36.0 32.0 -11.1 FL : 147 140 528 504 -4.5 GA : 85 84 344 337 -2.0 HI : 6.6 6.5 22.7 20.6 -9.3 ID : 390 412 2,041 2,200 7.8 IL : 115 108 500 485 -3.0 IN : 147 143 641 644 0.5 IA : 208 197 936 901 -3.7 KS : 105 110 515 530 2.9 KY : 120 112 374 353 -5.6 LA : 49 43 128 117 -8.6 ME : 36 34 157 151 -3.8 MD : 80 77 327 308 -5.8 MA : 20 18 87 77 -11.5 MI : 301 298 1,484 1,510 1.8 MN : 480 465 2,042 2,000 -2.1 MS : 33 29 105 96 -8.6 MO : 135 125 466 455 -2.4 MT : 18 18 85 86 1.2 NE : 66 62 290 270 -6.9 NV : 25 26 121 131 8.3 NH : 17 16 79 73 -7.6 NJ : 13 12 57 50 -12.3 NM : 306 321 1,564 1,650 5.5 NY : 678 660 2,973 2,875 -3.3 NC : 63 59 267 250 -6.4 ND : 38 34 140 131 -6.4 OH : 261 258 1,086 1,092 0.6 OK : 88 81 316 301 -4.7 OR : 117 118 529 527 -0.4 PA : 591 561 2,641 2,445 -7.4 RI : 1.4 1.3 5.4 5.1 -5.6 SC : 20 18 83 72 -13.3 SD : 95 87 336 347 3.3 TN : 84 77 305 285 -6.6 TX : 310 315 1,292 1,403 8.6 UT : 92 90 409 398 -2.7 VT : 153 146 654 639 -2.3 VA : 119 108 451 412 -8.6 WA : 247 243 1,374 1,359 -1.1 WV : 15 14 57 52 -8.8 WI : 1,267 1,249 5,396 5,431 0.6 WY : 4.1 3.9 14.3 14.4 0.7 : US 3/ : 9,148 9,007 41,555 41,322 -0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 0.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.01 million head by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 289 129 1 233 7 3 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.7 1.2 108 44 0 138 7 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on February 17, 2004. 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