Da 1-1 (3-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Up 1.7 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during February totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 1.7 percent from February 2003. However, adjusting production for the additional day due to the leap year causes February milk production to be down 1.8 percent on a per day basis. January revised production, at 12.5 billion pounds, was down 1.0 percent from January 2003. The January revision represented a decrease of 11 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,531 pounds for February, 42 pounds above February 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 91,000 head less than February 2003, but 4,000 head more than January 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 4,710 43,069 Apr-Jun : 9,109 4,827 43,965 Jul-Sep : 9,073 4,601 41,746 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,720 1,489 1,531 11,628 11,822 1.7 Mar : 7,810 1,666 13,014 Apr : 7,800 1,627 12,693 May : 7,787 1,671 13,013 Jun : 7,785 1,596 12,428 Jul : 7,780 1,597 12,421 Aug : 7,771 1,571 12,207 Sep : 7,764 1,511 11,731 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,599 14,584 14,383 -1.4 Feb : 9,145 8,994 1,470 1,513 13,441 13,610 1.3 Mar : 9,141 1,646 15,044 Apr : 9,125 1,604 14,634 May : 9,104 1,648 15,003 Jun : 9,097 1,575 14,328 Jul : 9,087 1,570 14,263 Aug : 9,072 1,545 14,015 Sep : 9,061 1,486 13,468 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 1,850 1,880 287 291 1.4 CA : 1,676 1,705 1,655 1,680 2,774 2,864 3.2 FL : 146 139 1,290 1,375 188 191 1.6 ID : 394 412 1,650 1,700 650 700 7.7 IL : 114 108 1,485 1,520 169 164 -3.0 IN : 147 145 1,525 1,590 224 231 3.1 IA : 204 194 1,480 1,510 302 293 -3.0 KY : 120 112 1,000 1,025 120 115 -4.2 MI : 302 299 1,590 1,670 480 499 4.0 MN : 480 465 1,385 1,425 665 663 -0.3 MO : 133 124 1,150 1,185 153 147 -3.9 NM : 314 326 1,605 1,660 504 541 7.3 NY : 677 660 1,400 1,400 948 924 -2.5 OH : 260 259 1,360 1,370 354 355 0.3 PA : 588 564 1,430 1,425 841 804 -4.4 TX : 320 317 1,410 1,585 451 502 11.3 VT : 152 146 1,370 1,425 208 208 VA : 116 105 1,235 1,310 143 138 -3.5 WA : 248 240 1,750 1,790 434 430 -0.9 WI : 1,265 1,245 1,370 1,415 1,733 1,762 1.7 : 20-State : Total : 7,811 7,720 1,489 1,531 11,628 11,822 1.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 1,970 2,010 305 312 2.3 CA : 1,672 1,701 1,790 1,755 2,993 2,985 -0.3 FL : 147 140 1,360 1,435 200 201 0.5 ID : 392 412 1,800 1,800 706 742 5.1 IL : 114 108 1,580 1,610 180 174 -3.3 IN : 146 145 1,710 1,715 250 249 -0.4 IA : 207 196 1,595 1,600 330 314 -4.8 KY : 120 112 1,115 1,090 134 122 -9.0 MI : 302 300 1,765 1,780 533 534 0.2 MN : 480 465 1,520 1,505 730 700 -4.1 MO : 134 125 1,240 1,265 166 158 -4.8 NM : 314 325 1,720 1,760 540 572 5.9 NY : 675 658 1,515 1,490 1,023 980 -4.2 OH : 260 258 1,445 1,450 376 374 -0.5 PA : 590 563 1,540 1,500 909 845 -7.0 TX : 320 317 1,505 1,660 482 526 9.1 VT : 153 146 1,495 1,515 229 221 -3.5 VA : 116 105 1,365 1,390 158 146 -7.6 WA : 248 240 1,910 1,900 474 456 -3.8 WI : 1,265 1,245 1,500 1,510 1,898 1,880 -0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.01 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 332 146 1 233 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.9 81 31 2 106 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. The next "Milk Production" report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on April 16, 2004. 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