Da 1-1 (4-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 16, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Down 1.8 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during March totaled 12.8 billion pounds, down 1.8 percent from March 2003. February revised production, at 11.8 billion pounds, was up 1.4 percent from February 2003. However, adjusting for leap year, February milk production was down 2.1 percent on a per day basis from last year. The February revision represented a decrease of 35 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,656 pounds for March, 10 pounds below March 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.71 million head, 96,000 head less than March 2003, and 2,000 head less than February 2004. January-March Milk Production Down 0.9 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the January-March quarter totaled 42.7 billion pounds, down 0.9 percent from the January-March quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 8.99 million head, 153,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,991 4,710 4,748 43,069 42,688 -0.9 Apr-Jun : 9,109 4,827 43,965 Jul-Sep : 9,073 4,601 41,746 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,714 1,666 1,656 13,014 12,776 -1.8 Apr : 7,800 1,627 12,693 May : 7,787 1,671 13,013 Jun : 7,785 1,596 12,428 Jul : 7,780 1,597 12,421 Aug : 7,771 1,571 12,207 Sep : 7,764 1,511 11,731 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,389 -1.3 Feb : 9,145 8,992 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,578 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,988 1,646 1,638 15,044 14,721 -2.1 Apr : 9,125 1,604 14,634 May : 9,104 1,648 15,003 Jun : 9,097 1,575 14,328 Jul : 9,087 1,570 14,263 Aug : 9,072 1,545 14,015 Sep : 9,061 1,486 13,468 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 2,085 2,095 323 325 0.6 CA : 1,681 1,708 1,850 1,810 3,110 3,091 -0.6 FL : 145 139 1,435 1,540 208 214 2.9 ID : 395 413 1,850 1,810 731 748 2.3 IL : 113 108 1,670 1,650 189 178 -5.8 IN : 147 145 1,720 1,730 253 251 -0.8 IA : 203 194 1,640 1,630 333 316 -5.1 KY : 120 109 1,135 1,175 136 128 -5.9 MI : 302 298 1,800 1,790 544 533 -2.0 MN : 480 465 1,540 1,510 739 702 -5.0 MO : 131 123 1,340 1,345 176 165 -6.3 NM : 315 327 1,835 1,765 578 577 -0.2 NY : 680 660 1,540 1,510 1,047 997 -4.8 OH : 260 260 1,500 1,520 390 395 1.3 PA : 585 564 1,600 1,570 936 885 -5.4 TX : 320 317 1,610 1,735 515 550 6.8 VT : 151 144 1,535 1,540 232 222 -4.3 VA : 116 101 1,360 1,450 158 146 -7.6 WA : 248 240 1,950 1,925 484 462 -4.5 WI : 1,263 1,244 1,530 1,520 1,932 1,891 -2.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,810 7,714 1,666 1,656 13,014 12,776 -1.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 1,850 1,955 287 303 5.6 CA : 1,676 1,705 1,655 1,670 2,774 2,847 2.6 FL : 146 139 1,290 1,410 188 196 4.3 ID : 394 412 1,650 1,660 650 684 5.2 IL : 114 108 1,485 1,520 169 164 -3.0 IN : 147 145 1,525 1,590 224 231 3.1 IA : 204 194 1,480 1,510 302 293 -3.0 KY : 120 111 1,000 1,035 120 115 -4.2 MI : 302 299 1,590 1,670 480 499 4.0 MN : 480 465 1,385 1,415 665 658 -1.1 MO : 133 124 1,150 1,185 153 147 -3.9 NM : 314 326 1,605 1,660 504 541 7.3 NY : 677 660 1,400 1,400 948 924 -2.5 OH : 260 259 1,360 1,370 354 355 0.3 PA : 588 564 1,430 1,425 841 804 -4.4 TX : 320 317 1,410 1,585 451 502 11.3 VT : 152 145 1,370 1,435 208 208 VA : 116 103 1,235 1,330 143 137 -4.2 WA : 248 240 1,750 1,790 434 430 -0.9 WI : 1,265 1,245 1,370 1,405 1,733 1,749 0.9 : 20-State : Total : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 2002-2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 : 2003 : 2002 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 19 18 63 60 -4.8 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.36 3.50 -19.7 AZ : 153 155 822 838 1.9 AR : 31 28 87 80 -8.0 CA : 1,666 1,696 8,720 8,695 -0.3 CO : 99 99 540 540 CT : 23 21 107 99 -7.5 DE : 9.0 8.0 35.0 32.0 -8.6 FL : 147 140 503 510 1.4 GA : 85 84 344 337 -2.0 HI : 6.6 6.6 22.7 21.1 -7.0 ID : 390 412 2,041 2,209 8.2 IL : 115 109 500 498 -0.4 IN : 147 150 668 748 12.0 IA : 208 197 936 913 -2.5 KS : 111 110 520 530 1.9 KY : 120 112 374 350 -6.4 LA : 45 41 126 118 -6.3 ME : 36 34 157 151 -3.8 MD : 80 77 315 301 -4.4 MA : 20 18 87 76 -12.6 MI : 302 301 1,529 1,575 3.0 MN : 480 465 2,042 1,993 -2.4 MS : 33 29 105 96 -8.6 MO : 135 125 466 455 -2.4 MT : 18 18 85 86 1.2 NE : 66 62 290 270 -6.9 NV : 25 26 125 120 -4.0 NH : 17 16 79 73 -7.6 NJ : 13 12 57 50 -12.3 NM : 311 321 1,566 1,650 5.4 NY : 673 661 2,974 2,871 -3.5 NC : 63 59 267 250 -6.4 ND : 38 34 140 131 -6.4 OH : 261 258 1,086 1,093 0.6 OK : 83 81 317 320 0.9 OR : 117 118 529 535 1.1 PA : 591 561 2,641 2,445 -7.4 RI : 1.4 1.3 5.4 5.0 -7.4 SC : 20 18 83 72 -13.3 SD : 84 80 312 321 2.9 TN : 84 77 305 285 -6.6 TX : 320 317 1,292 1,405 8.7 UT : 92 90 416 398 -4.3 VT : 153 146 654 640 -2.1 VA : 117 108 451 414 -8.2 WA : 247 243 1,374 1,359 -1.1 WV : 15 14 57 52 -8.8 WI : 1,267 1,249 5,409 5,444 0.6 WY : 4.1 3.9 14.3 14.4 0.7 : US 3/ : 9,142 9,011 41,643 41,532 -0.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds ---- Percent : AL : 18 17 70 70 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.30 3.60 -16.3 AZ : 155 155 915 940 2.7 AR : 30 27 96 87 -9.4 CA : 1,676 1,705 8,877 8,923 0.5 CO : 101 100 547 546 -0.2 CT : 23 21 109 102 -6.4 DE : 8.5 7.8 37.0 34.5 -6.8 FL : 146 139 596 611 2.5 GA : 85 84 399 380 -4.8 HI : 6.6 6.5 24.0 21.3 -11.3 ID : 394 412 2,087 2,174 4.2 IL : 114 108 538 516 -4.1 IN : 147 145 727 731 0.6 IA : 205 195 965 923 -4.4 KS : 112 111 540 543 0.6 KY : 120 111 390 365 -6.4 LA : 44 40 149 140 -6.0 ME : 35 34 155 151 -2.6 MD : 79 76 319 306 -4.1 MA : 20 17 88 75 -14.8 MI : 302 299 1,557 1,566 0.6 MN : 480 465 2,134 2,060 -3.5 MS : 32 28 122 109 -10.7 MO : 133 124 495 470 -5.1 MT : 18 18 86 86 NE : 66 61 297 271 -8.8 NV : 26 25 122 125 2.5 NH : 17 16 79 76 -3.8 NJ : 13 12 57 52 -8.8 NM : 314 326 1,622 1,690 4.2 NY : 677 659 3,018 2,901 -3.9 NC : 62 58 279 264 -5.4 ND : 37 33 143 129 -9.8 OH : 260 259 1,120 1,124 0.4 OK : 83 80 336 330 -1.8 OR : 117 120 526 546 3.8 PA : 588 564 2,686 2,534 -5.7 RI : 1.4 1.2 5.8 5.2 -10.3 SC : 20 17 95 78 -17.9 SD : 84 80 333 339 1.8 TN : 82 77 325 310 -4.6 TX : 320 317 1,448 1,578 9.0 UT : 92 88 399 387 -3.0 VT : 152 145 669 651 -2.7 VA : 116 103 459 429 -6.5 WA : 248 240 1,392 1,348 -3.2 WV : 15 14 56 53 -5.4 WI : 1,264 1,245 5,563 5,520 -0.8 WY : 3.9 4.0 13.3 14.4 8.3 : US 3/ : 9,144 8,991 43,069 42,688 -0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.99 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 299 126 18 329 5 5 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.9 81 26 0 126 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. The next Milk Production report will be released at 3 p.m. ET on May 17, 2004. 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