Da 1-1 (5-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 17, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. April Milk Production Down 0.9 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during April totaled 12.6 billion pounds, down 0.9 percent from April 2003. March revised production, at 12.8 billion pounds, was down 1.7 percent from March 2003. The March revision represented an increase of 0.2 percent or 22 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,630 pounds for April, 3 pounds above April 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 81,000 head less than April 2003, but 2,000 head more than March 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,991 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,710 -0.8 Apr-Jun : 9,109 4,827 43,965 Jul-Sep : 9,073 4,601 41,746 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,719 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,584 -0.9 May : 7,787 1,671 13,013 Jun : 7,785 1,596 12,428 Jul : 7,780 1,597 12,421 Aug : 7,771 1,571 12,207 Sep : 7,764 1,511 11,731 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,389 -1.3 Feb : 9,145 8,992 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,578 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,990 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,743 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,989 1,604 1,609 14,634 14,465 -1.2 May : 9,104 1,648 15,003 Jun : 9,097 1,575 14,328 Jul : 9,087 1,570 14,263 Aug : 9,072 1,545 14,015 Sep : 9,061 1,486 13,468 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 2,045 2,055 317 319 0.6 CA : 1,685 1,714 1,800 1,790 3,033 3,068 1.2 FL : 144 138 1,415 1,505 204 208 2.0 ID : 397 414 1,800 1,760 715 729 2.0 IL : 111 108 1,610 1,580 179 171 -4.5 IN : 148 147 1,685 1,660 249 244 -2.0 IA : 203 194 1,610 1,580 327 307 -6.1 KY : 120 110 1,140 1,190 137 131 -4.4 MI : 301 297 1,730 1,750 521 520 -0.2 MN : 475 465 1,500 1,480 713 688 -3.5 MO : 130 124 1,325 1,370 172 170 -1.2 NM : 315 327 1,810 1,735 570 567 -0.5 NY : 679 658 1,505 1,480 1,022 974 -4.7 OH : 261 261 1,490 1,500 389 392 0.8 PA : 582 561 1,575 1,550 917 870 -5.1 TX : 320 317 1,600 1,705 512 540 5.5 VT : 150 144 1,495 1,495 224 215 -4.0 VA : 116 102 1,355 1,460 157 149 -5.1 WA : 248 240 1,895 1,905 470 457 -2.8 WI : 1,260 1,243 1,480 1,500 1,865 1,865 : 20-State : Total : 7,800 7,719 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,584 -0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 2,085 2,095 323 325 0.6 CA : 1,681 1,710 1,850 1,810 3,110 3,095 -0.5 FL : 145 138 1,435 1,550 208 214 2.9 ID : 395 413 1,850 1,780 731 735 0.5 IL : 113 108 1,670 1,650 189 178 -5.8 IN : 147 145 1,720 1,730 253 251 -0.8 IA : 203 194 1,640 1,630 333 316 -5.1 KY : 120 110 1,135 1,175 136 129 -5.1 MI : 302 298 1,800 1,790 544 533 -2.0 MN : 480 465 1,540 1,510 739 702 -5.0 MO : 131 123 1,340 1,345 176 165 -6.3 NM : 315 327 1,835 1,765 578 577 -0.2 NY : 680 660 1,540 1,510 1,047 997 -4.8 OH : 260 260 1,500 1,520 390 395 1.3 PA : 585 564 1,600 1,570 936 885 -5.4 TX : 320 317 1,610 1,735 515 550 6.8 VT : 151 144 1,535 1,540 232 222 -4.3 VA : 116 102 1,360 1,480 158 151 -4.4 WA : 248 240 1,950 1,925 484 462 -4.5 WI : 1,263 1,244 1,530 1,540 1,932 1,916 -0.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.99 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 299 126 18 329 5 5 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.9 81 26 0 126 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.