Da 1-1 (6-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 16, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Down 0.1 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during May totaled 13.0 billion pounds, down 0.1 percent from May 2003. April revised production, at 12.6 billion pounds, was down 0.8 percent from April 2003. The April revision represented an increase of 4 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,684 pounds for May, 13 pounds above May 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.72 million head, 71,000 head less than May 2003, and 5,000 head less than April 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,991 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,710 -0.8 Apr-Jun : 9,109 4,827 43,965 Jul-Sep : 9,073 4,601 41,746 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 May : 7,787 7,716 1,671 1,684 13,013 12,994 -0.1 Jun : 7,785 1,596 12,428 Jul : 7,780 1,597 12,421 Aug : 7,771 1,571 12,207 Sep : 7,764 1,511 11,731 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,389 -1.3 Feb : 9,145 8,992 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,578 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,990 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,743 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,991 1,604 1,609 14,634 14,469 -1.1 May : 9,104 8,982 1,648 1,663 15,003 14,940 -0.4 Jun : 9,097 1,575 14,328 Jul : 9,087 1,570 14,263 Aug : 9,072 1,545 14,015 Sep : 9,061 1,486 13,468 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 2,055 2,090 319 324 1.6 CA : 1,685 1,720 1,835 1,835 3,092 3,156 2.1 FL : 143 138 1,385 1,490 198 206 4.0 ID : 400 415 1,870 1,840 748 764 2.1 IL : 110 108 1,650 1,620 182 175 -3.8 IN : 148 148 1,700 1,700 252 252 IA : 203 194 1,640 1,630 333 316 -5.1 KY : 119 108 1,125 1,155 134 125 -6.7 MI : 301 299 1,790 1,805 539 540 0.2 MN : 475 460 1,530 1,550 727 713 -1.9 MO : 130 124 1,345 1,380 175 171 -2.3 NM : 315 327 1,890 1,840 595 602 1.2 NY : 677 655 1,570 1,580 1,063 1,035 -2.6 OH : 261 262 1,560 1,560 407 409 0.5 PA : 580 557 1,600 1,605 928 894 -3.7 TX : 320 317 1,600 1,720 512 545 6.4 VT : 149 144 1,565 1,565 233 225 -3.4 VA : 115 102 1,370 1,460 158 149 -5.7 WA : 244 240 1,975 1,970 482 473 -1.9 WI : 1,257 1,243 1,540 1,545 1,936 1,920 -0.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,787 7,716 1,671 1,684 13,013 12,994 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 2,045 2,055 317 319 0.6 CA : 1,685 1,716 1,800 1,790 3,033 3,072 1.3 FL : 144 138 1,415 1,480 204 204 ID : 397 414 1,800 1,770 715 733 2.5 IL : 111 108 1,610 1,580 179 171 -4.5 IN : 148 147 1,685 1,660 249 244 -2.0 IA : 203 194 1,610 1,580 327 307 -6.1 KY : 120 109 1,140 1,155 137 126 -8.0 MI : 301 298 1,730 1,755 521 523 0.4 MN : 475 465 1,500 1,480 713 688 -3.5 MO : 130 124 1,325 1,370 172 170 -1.2 NM : 315 327 1,810 1,760 570 576 1.1 NY : 679 658 1,505 1,500 1,022 987 -3.4 OH : 261 261 1,490 1,500 389 392 0.8 PA : 582 561 1,575 1,550 917 870 -5.1 TX : 320 317 1,600 1,705 512 540 5.5 VT : 150 144 1,495 1,495 224 215 -4.0 VA : 116 102 1,355 1,450 157 148 -5.7 WA : 248 240 1,895 1,905 470 457 -2.8 WI : 1,260 1,243 1,480 1,485 1,865 1,846 -1.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 8.99 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 299 126 18 329 5 5 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.9 81 26 0 126 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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