Da 1-1 (7-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released July 16, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. June Milk Production Down 0.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during June totaled 12.4 billion pounds, down 0.2 percent from June 2003. May revised production, at 13.0 billion pounds, was down 6 million pounds from May 2003. The May revision represented an increase of 13 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,603 pounds for June, 7 pounds above June 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.74 million head, 44,000 head less than June 2003, but 19,000 head more than May 2004. April-June Milk Production Down 0.6 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the April-June quarter totaled 43.7 billion pounds, down 0.6 percent from the April-June quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.00 million head, 112,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,990 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,701 -0.9 Apr-Jun : 9,109 8,997 4,827 4,857 43,965 43,702 -0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,073 4,601 41,746 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 May : 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 Jun : 7,785 7,741 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,409 -0.2 Jul : 7,780 1,597 12,421 Aug : 7,771 1,571 12,207 Sep : 7,764 1,511 11,731 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,387 -1.4 Feb : 9,145 8,989 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,575 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,987 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,739 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,991 1,604 1,610 14,634 14,476 -1.1 May : 9,104 8,989 1,648 1,664 15,003 14,958 -0.3 Jun : 9,097 9,012 1,575 1,583 14,328 14,268 -0.4 Jul : 9,087 1,570 14,263 Aug : 9,072 1,545 14,015 Sep : 9,061 1,486 13,468 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, June 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 1,900 1,950 295 302 2.4 CA : 1,684 1,725 1,765 1,755 2,972 3,027 1.9 FL : 142 139 1,290 1,400 183 195 6.6 ID : 407 422 1,840 1,820 749 768 2.5 IL : 110 108 1,525 1,540 168 166 -1.2 IN : 148 149 1,610 1,610 238 240 0.8 IA : 202 193 1,575 1,530 318 295 -7.2 KY : 118 112 1,015 1,035 120 116 -3.3 MI : 302 300 1,750 1,730 529 519 -1.9 MN : 475 460 1,465 1,480 696 681 -2.2 MO : 130 124 1,220 1,250 159 155 -2.5 NM : 315 328 1,795 1,790 565 587 3.9 NY : 675 656 1,500 1,500 1,013 984 -2.9 OH : 261 265 1,450 1,435 378 380 0.5 PA : 578 557 1,480 1,495 855 833 -2.6 TX : 320 320 1,470 1,570 470 502 6.8 VT : 148 143 1,500 1,510 222 216 -2.7 VA : 115 102 1,235 1,325 142 135 -4.9 WA : 244 240 1,910 1,900 466 456 -2.1 WI : 1,256 1,243 1,505 1,490 1,890 1,852 -2.0 : 20-State : Total : 7,785 7,741 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,409 -0.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 155 2,055 2,090 319 324 1.6 CA : 1,685 1,720 1,835 1,830 3,092 3,148 1.8 FL : 143 139 1,385 1,525 198 212 7.1 ID : 400 417 1,870 1,850 748 771 3.1 IL : 110 108 1,650 1,620 182 175 -3.8 IN : 148 148 1,700 1,700 252 252 IA : 203 194 1,640 1,630 333 316 -5.1 KY : 119 110 1,125 1,190 134 131 -2.2 MI : 301 299 1,790 1,805 539 540 0.2 MN : 475 460 1,530 1,555 727 715 -1.7 MO : 130 124 1,345 1,380 175 171 -2.3 NM : 315 327 1,890 1,840 595 602 1.2 NY : 677 655 1,570 1,580 1,063 1,035 -2.6 OH : 261 263 1,560 1,550 407 408 0.2 PA : 580 557 1,600 1,605 928 894 -3.7 TX : 320 317 1,600 1,720 512 545 6.4 VT : 149 144 1,565 1,565 233 225 -3.4 VA : 115 102 1,370 1,460 158 149 -5.7 WA : 244 240 1,975 1,975 482 474 -1.7 WI : 1,257 1,243 1,540 1,545 1,936 1,920 -0.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised January-March, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 70 71 1.4 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.3 3.6 -16.3 AZ : 155 155 915 940 2.7 AR : 30 27 96 87 -9.4 CA : 1,676 1,705 8,877 8,927 0.6 CO : 101 100 547 546 -0.2 CT : 23 21 109 102 -6.4 DE : 8.5 7.5 37.0 34.0 -8.1 FL : 146 139 596 611 2.5 GA : 85 84 399 381 -4.5 HI : 6.6 6.5 24.0 21.3 -11.3 ID : 394 412 2,087 2,161 3.5 IL : 114 108 538 516 -4.1 IN : 147 145 727 731 0.6 IA : 205 195 965 923 -4.4 KS : 112 111 540 543 0.6 KY : 120 111 390 366 -6.2 LA : 44 40 149 140 -6.0 ME : 35 34 155 151 -2.6 MD : 79 76 319 306 -4.1 MA : 20 17 88 75 -14.8 MI : 302 299 1,557 1,566 0.6 MN : 480 465 2,134 2,060 -3.5 MS : 32 28 122 109 -10.7 MO : 133 124 495 470 -5.1 MT : 18 18 86 85 -1.2 NE : 66 61 297 267 -10.1 NV : 26 25 122 125 2.5 NH : 17 16 79 76 -3.8 NJ : 13 12 57 52 -8.8 NM : 314 326 1,622 1,690 4.2 NY : 677 659 3,018 2,901 -3.9 NC : 62 58 279 264 -5.4 ND : 37 33 143 129 -9.8 OH : 260 259 1,120 1,124 0.4 OK : 83 80 336 330 -1.8 OR : 117 120 526 546 3.8 PA : 588 564 2,686 2,534 -5.7 RI : 1.4 1.2 5.8 5.2 -10.3 SC : 20 17 95 79 -16.8 SD : 84 80 333 333 TN : 82 77 325 310 -4.6 TX : 320 317 1,448 1,578 9.0 UT : 92 88 399 387 -3.0 VT : 152 145 669 651 -2.7 VA : 116 103 459 434 -5.4 WA : 248 240 1,392 1,348 -3.2 WV : 15 14 56 53 -5.4 WI : 1,264 1,245 5,563 5,545 -0.3 WY : 3.9 4.0 13.3 14.4 8.3 : US 3/ : 9,144 8,990 43,069 42,701 -0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary April-June, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 69 66 -4.3 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.5 3.8 -15.6 AZ : 155 155 931 945 1.5 AR : 29 27 97 86 -11.3 CA : 1,685 1,720 9,097 9,247 1.6 CO : 100 102 545 557 2.2 CT : 22 21 106 101 -4.7 DE : 8.5 7.5 36.0 33.0 -8.3 FL : 143 139 585 611 4.4 GA : 85 84 389 382 -1.8 HI : 6.4 6.2 24.3 22.2 -8.6 ID : 401 418 2,212 2,272 2.7 IL : 110 108 529 512 -3.2 IN : 148 148 739 736 -0.4 IA : 203 194 978 918 -6.1 KS : 111 113 540 562 4.1 KY : 119 110 391 373 -4.6 LA : 43 38 143 132 -7.7 ME : 35 34 161 157 -2.5 MD : 78 75 318 305 -4.1 MA : 20 17 89 76 -14.6 MI : 301 299 1,589 1,582 -0.4 MN : 475 462 2,136 2,084 -2.4 MS : 31 27 118 104 -11.9 MO : 130 124 506 496 -2.0 MT : 18 18 87 88 1.1 NE : 65 60 294 265 -9.9 NV : 26 25 120 124 3.3 NH : 16 16 79 78 -1.3 NJ : 13 12 57 54 -5.3 NM : 315 327 1,730 1,765 2.0 NY : 677 656 3,098 3,006 -3.0 NC : 61 57 272 259 -4.8 ND : 36 34 143 136 -4.9 OH : 261 263 1,174 1,180 0.5 OK : 82 79 337 329 -2.4 OR : 120 120 561 572 2.0 PA : 580 558 2,700 2,597 -3.8 RI : 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.2 -11.9 SC : 19 17 87 76 -12.6 SD : 83 80 339 338 -0.3 TN : 80 76 325 310 -4.6 TX : 320 318 1,494 1,587 6.2 UT : 92 87 413 409 -1.0 VT : 149 144 679 656 -3.4 VA : 115 102 457 432 -5.5 WA : 245 240 1,418 1,387 -2.2 WV : 15 13 58 52 -10.3 WI : 1,258 1,243 5,691 5,618 -1.3 WY : 3.8 4.1 13.3 15.6 17.3 : US 3/ : 9,109 8,997 43,965 43,702 -0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.00 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 262 96 3 264 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 1.0 90 28 0 145 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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