Da 1-1 (9-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 17, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 1.5 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during August totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 1.5 percent from August 2003. July revised production, at 12.5 billion pounds, was up 1.0 percent from July 2003. The July revision represented an increase of 36 million pounds or 0.3 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,595 pounds for August, 24 pounds above August 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 5,000 head less than August 2003, but 7,000 head more than July 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,990 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,701 -0.9 Apr-Jun : 9,109 8,997 4,827 4,858 43,965 43,703 -0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,073 4,601 41,746 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 May : 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 Jun : 7,785 7,742 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,410 -0.1 Jul : 7,780 7,759 1,597 1,616 12,421 12,541 1.0 Aug : 7,771 7,766 1,571 1,595 12,207 12,387 1.5 Sep : 7,764 1,511 11,731 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,387 -1.4 Feb : 9,145 8,989 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,575 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,987 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,739 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,991 1,604 1,610 14,634 14,476 -1.1 May : 9,104 8,989 1,648 1,664 15,003 14,957 -0.3 Jun : 9,097 9,012 1,575 1,583 14,328 14,270 -0.4 Jul : 9,087 9,033 1,570 1,590 14,263 14,363 0.7 Aug : 9,072 9,042 1,545 1,569 14,015 14,183 1.2 Sep : 9,061 1,486 13,468 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 163 1,610 1,740 250 284 13.6 CA : 1,693 1,733 1,755 1,775 2,971 3,076 3.5 FL : 140 138 1,120 1,225 157 169 7.6 ID : 411 431 1,860 1,860 764 802 5.0 IL : 110 107 1,480 1,490 163 159 -2.5 IN : 152 149 1,610 1,610 245 240 -2.0 IA : 200 190 1,540 1,545 308 294 -4.5 KY : 112 110 975 1,045 109 115 5.5 MI : 304 303 1,805 1,755 549 532 -3.1 MN : 470 465 1,420 1,440 667 670 0.4 MO : 128 121 1,125 1,210 144 146 1.4 NM : 317 330 1,750 1,740 555 574 3.4 NY : 671 654 1,475 1,500 990 981 -0.9 OH : 260 266 1,420 1,440 369 383 3.8 PA : 571 560 1,480 1,475 845 826 -2.2 TX : 320 320 1,310 1,465 419 469 11.9 VT : 147 145 1,470 1,495 216 217 0.5 VA : 112 104 1,190 1,350 133 140 5.3 WA : 244 237 1,960 1,925 478 456 -4.6 WI : 1,254 1,240 1,495 1,495 1,875 1,854 -1.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,771 7,766 1,571 1,595 12,207 12,387 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 158 1,750 1,820 271 288 6.3 CA : 1,690 1,729 1,755 1,780 2,966 3,078 3.8 FL : 141 139 1,215 1,340 171 186 8.8 ID : 408 427 1,880 1,860 767 794 3.5 IL : 110 107 1,490 1,520 164 163 -0.6 IN : 148 150 1,625 1,640 241 246 2.1 IA : 201 192 1,580 1,570 318 301 -5.3 KY : 115 111 1,005 1,055 116 117 0.9 MI : 304 301 1,830 1,785 556 537 -3.4 MN : 475 465 1,455 1,460 691 679 -1.7 MO : 129 122 1,150 1,240 148 151 2.0 NM : 316 330 1,795 1,770 567 584 3.0 NY : 673 656 1,515 1,520 1,020 997 -2.3 OH : 260 266 1,450 1,460 377 388 2.9 PA : 574 559 1,500 1,510 861 844 -2.0 TX : 320 320 1,395 1,540 446 493 10.5 VT : 148 145 1,505 1,525 223 221 -0.9 VA : 114 103 1,210 1,380 138 142 2.9 WA : 244 239 1,965 1,950 479 466 -2.7 WI : 1,255 1,240 1,515 1,505 1,901 1,866 -1.8 : 20-State : Total : 7,780 7,759 1,597 1,616 12,421 12,541 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.00 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 262 96 3 264 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 1.0 90 28 0 145 6 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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