Da 1-1 (10-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 15, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. September Milk Production Up 1.3 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during September totaled 11.9 billion pounds, up 1.3 percent from September 2003. August revised production, at 12.4 billion pounds, was up 1.4 percent from August 2003. The August revision represented a decrease of 11 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,529 pounds for September, 18 pounds above September 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 6,000 head less than September 2003, but 4,000 head more than August 2004. July-September Milk Production Up 1.1 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the July-September quarter totaled 42.2 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from the July-September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.03 million head, 40,000 head less than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,990 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,701 -0.9 Apr-Jun : 9,109 8,998 4,827 4,858 43,965 43,712 -0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,073 9,033 4,601 4,671 41,746 42,194 1.1 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 May : 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 Jun : 7,785 7,742 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,410 -0.1 Jul : 7,780 7,759 1,597 1,616 12,421 12,541 1.0 Aug : 7,771 7,766 1,571 1,594 12,207 12,376 1.4 Sep : 7,764 7,770 1,511 1,529 11,731 11,879 1.3 Oct : 7,743 1,561 12,083 Nov : 7,721 1,517 11,709 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,387 -1.4 Feb : 9,145 8,989 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,575 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,987 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,739 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,989 1,604 1,611 14,634 14,479 -1.1 May : 9,104 8,990 1,648 1,664 15,003 14,961 -0.3 Jun : 9,097 9,014 1,575 1,583 14,328 14,272 -0.4 Jul : 9,087 9,026 1,570 1,593 14,263 14,381 0.8 Aug : 9,072 9,034 1,545 1,571 14,015 14,192 1.3 Sep : 9,061 9,038 1,486 1,507 13,468 13,621 1.1 Oct : 9,034 1,538 13,898 Nov : 9,005 1,496 13,470 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 165 1,605 1,675 249 276 10.8 CA : 1,695 1,737 1,670 1,710 2,831 2,970 4.9 FL : 139 137 1,020 1,115 142 153 7.7 ID : 413 431 1,780 1,780 735 767 4.4 IL : 109 107 1,420 1,440 155 154 -0.6 IN : 155 150 1,575 1,540 244 231 -5.3 IA : 200 190 1,490 1,480 298 281 -5.7 KY : 111 109 975 1,000 108 109 0.9 MI : 304 303 1,755 1,685 534 511 -4.3 MN : 470 465 1,355 1,365 637 635 -0.3 MO : 127 121 1,090 1,150 138 139 0.7 NM : 318 330 1,705 1,670 542 551 1.7 NY : 668 654 1,430 1,420 955 929 -2.7 OH : 259 266 1,380 1,380 357 367 2.8 PA : 566 562 1,415 1,415 801 795 -0.7 TX : 320 320 1,305 1,405 418 450 7.7 VT : 147 145 1,430 1,430 210 207 -1.4 VA : 111 104 1,175 1,290 130 134 3.1 WA : 244 235 1,865 1,855 455 436 -4.2 WI : 1,253 1,239 1,430 1,440 1,792 1,784 -0.4 : 20-State : Total : 7,764 7,770 1,511 1,529 11,731 11,879 1.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 163 1,610 1,740 250 284 13.6 CA : 1,693 1,733 1,755 1,775 2,971 3,076 3.5 FL : 140 138 1,120 1,225 157 169 7.6 ID : 411 431 1,860 1,850 764 797 4.3 IL : 110 107 1,480 1,490 163 159 -2.5 IN : 152 149 1,610 1,610 245 240 -2.0 IA : 200 190 1,540 1,545 308 294 -4.5 KY : 112 110 975 1,045 109 115 5.5 MI : 304 303 1,805 1,755 549 532 -3.1 MN : 470 465 1,420 1,440 667 670 0.4 MO : 128 121 1,125 1,210 144 146 1.4 NM : 317 330 1,750 1,740 555 574 3.4 NY : 671 654 1,475 1,500 990 981 -0.9 OH : 260 266 1,420 1,440 369 383 3.8 PA : 571 560 1,480 1,475 845 826 -2.2 TX : 320 320 1,310 1,465 419 469 11.9 VT : 147 145 1,470 1,495 216 217 0.5 VA : 112 104 1,190 1,335 133 139 4.5 WA : 244 237 1,960 1,905 478 451 -5.6 WI : 1,254 1,240 1,495 1,495 1,875 1,854 -1.1 : 20-State : Total : 7,771 7,766 1,571 1,594 12,207 12,376 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 69 66 -4.3 AK : 1.3 1.2 4.5 3.8 -15.6 AZ : 155 155 931 945 1.5 AR : 29 27 97 86 -11.3 CA : 1,685 1,720 9,097 9,246 1.6 CO : 100 102 545 551 1.1 CT : 22 21 106 101 -4.7 DE : 8.5 7.5 36.0 33.0 -8.3 FL : 143 139 585 610 4.3 GA : 85 84 389 382 -1.8 HI : 6.4 6.2 24.3 22.2 -8.6 ID : 401 418 2,212 2,264 2.4 IL : 110 108 529 512 -3.2 IN : 148 148 739 736 -0.4 IA : 203 194 978 922 -5.7 KS : 111 113 540 569 5.4 KY : 119 110 391 375 -4.1 LA : 43 38 143 132 -7.7 ME : 35 34 161 157 -2.5 MD : 78 75 318 300 -5.7 MA : 20 17 89 76 -14.6 MI : 301 299 1,589 1,587 -0.1 MN : 475 462 2,136 2,084 -2.4 MS : 31 27 118 104 -11.9 MO : 130 124 506 496 -2.0 MT : 18 18 87 88 1.1 NE : 65 60 294 266 -9.5 NV : 26 25 120 124 3.3 NH : 16 16 79 78 -1.3 NJ : 13 12 57 52 -8.8 NM : 315 327 1,730 1,765 2.0 NY : 677 656 3,098 2,999 -3.2 NC : 61 57 272 259 -4.8 ND : 36 34 143 136 -4.9 OH : 261 263 1,174 1,184 0.9 OK : 82 79 337 329 -2.4 OR : 120 120 561 581 3.6 PA : 580 558 2,700 2,597 -3.8 RI : 1.3 1.2 5.9 5.2 -11.9 SC : 19 17 87 76 -12.6 SD : 83 81 339 343 1.2 TN : 80 76 325 310 -4.6 TX : 320 318 1,494 1,587 6.2 UT : 92 87 413 409 -1.0 VT : 149 144 679 657 -3.2 VA : 115 102 457 434 -5.0 WA : 245 240 1,418 1,387 -2.2 WV : 15 13 58 52 -10.3 WI : 1,258 1,243 5,691 5,618 -1.3 WY : 3.8 4.1 13.3 16.0 20.3 : US 3/ : 9,109 8,998 43,965 43,712 -0.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 53 52 -1.9 AK : 1.2 1.2 4.4 3.9 -11.4 AZ : 155 162 770 848 10.1 AR : 28 26 79 73 -7.6 CA : 1,693 1,733 8,768 9,124 4.1 CO : 100 103 545 546 0.2 CT : 22 21 99 95 -4.0 DE : 8.0 7.0 31.0 28.8 -7.1 FL : 140 138 470 508 8.1 GA : 85 84 319 319 HI : 6.5 5.9 22.6 19.6 -13.3 ID : 411 430 2,266 2,358 4.1 IL : 110 107 482 476 -1.2 IN : 152 150 730 717 -1.8 IA : 200 191 924 876 -5.2 KS : 110 115 505 555 9.9 KY : 113 110 333 341 2.4 LA : 42 37 109 103 -5.5 ME : 35 34 157 156 -0.6 MD : 77 73 294 282 -4.1 MA : 18 17 79 74 -6.3 MI : 304 302 1,639 1,580 -3.6 MN : 472 465 1,995 1,984 -0.6 MS : 30 27 87 80 -8.0 MO : 128 121 430 436 1.4 MT : 18 18 87 89 2.3 NE : 63 61 268 256 -4.5 NV : 26 25 123 122 -0.8 NH : 16 16 74 75 1.4 NJ : 12 12 52 49 -5.8 NM : 317 330 1,664 1,709 2.7 NY : 671 655 2,965 2,907 -2.0 NC : 60 56 243 241 -0.8 ND : 35 34 137 134 -2.2 OH : 260 266 1,103 1,138 3.2 OK : 81 77 319 307 -3.8 OR : 120 120 555 574 3.4 PA : 570 560 2,507 2,465 -1.7 RI : 1.3 1.1 5.3 4.6 -13.2 SC : 18 17 64 63 -1.6 SD : 82 81 332 341 2.7 TN : 78 76 270 270 TX : 320 320 1,283 1,412 10.1 UT : 90 88 405 418 3.2 VT : 147 145 649 645 -0.6 VA : 112 104 401 415 3.5 WA : 244 237 1,412 1,353 -4.2 WV : 15 13 56 51 -8.9 WI : 1,254 1,240 5,568 5,504 -1.1 WY : 3.7 4.2 13.0 16.0 23.1 : US 3/ : 9,073 9,033 41,746 42,194 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.03 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 464 209 68 362 9 1 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.6 1.1 99 36 2 148 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.