Da 1-1 (12-04) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released December 17, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. November Milk Production Up 1.2 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during November totaled 11.8 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from November 2003. October revised production, at 12.3 billion pounds, was up 1.4 percent from October 2003. The October revision represented an increase of 0.1 percent or 9 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,526 pounds for November, 9 pounds above November 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.77 million head, 44,000 head more than November 2003, but unchanged from October 2004. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,990 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,701 -0.9 Apr-Jun : 9,109 8,998 4,827 4,858 43,965 43,712 -0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,073 9,033 4,601 4,671 41,746 42,193 1.1 Oct-Dec : 9,011 4,609 41,532 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 May : 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 Jun : 7,785 7,742 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,410 -0.1 Jul : 7,780 7,759 1,597 1,616 12,421 12,541 1.0 Aug : 7,771 7,766 1,571 1,594 12,207 12,376 1.4 Sep : 7,764 7,769 1,511 1,529 11,731 11,878 1.3 Oct : 7,743 7,765 1,561 1,578 12,083 12,254 1.4 Nov : 7,721 7,765 1,517 1,526 11,709 11,846 1.2 Dec : 7,713 1,596 12,313 : Annual : 7,775 19,017 147,856 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003- 2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,387 -1.4 Feb : 9,145 8,989 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,575 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,987 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,739 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,989 1,604 1,611 14,634 14,479 -1.1 May : 9,104 8,990 1,648 1,664 15,003 14,961 -0.3 Jun : 9,097 9,014 1,575 1,583 14,328 14,272 -0.4 Jul : 9,087 9,026 1,570 1,593 14,263 14,381 0.8 Aug : 9,072 9,034 1,545 1,571 14,015 14,192 1.3 Sep : 9,061 9,038 1,486 1,507 13,468 13,620 1.1 Oct : 9,034 9,032 1,538 1,559 13,898 14,078 1.3 Nov : 9,005 9,030 1,496 1,507 13,470 13,611 1.0 Dec : 8,994 1,575 14,164 : Annual : 9,084 18,749 170,312 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 168 1,775 1,760 275 296 7.6 CA : 1,694 1,741 1,665 1,700 2,821 2,960 4.9 FL : 140 137 1,180 1,250 165 171 3.6 ID : 412 436 1,740 1,720 717 750 4.6 IL : 109 106 1,485 1,450 162 154 -4.9 IN : 151 154 1,620 1,560 245 240 -2.0 IA : 197 190 1,515 1,520 298 289 -3.0 KY : 112 109 1,025 1,030 115 112 -2.6 MI : 300 306 1,675 1,650 503 505 0.4 MN : 465 460 1,390 1,390 646 639 -1.1 MO : 125 120 1,190 1,215 149 146 -2.0 NM : 320 324 1,670 1,605 534 520 -2.6 NY : 660 646 1,410 1,410 931 911 -2.1 OH : 258 266 1,370 1,390 353 370 4.8 PA : 560 563 1,420 1,420 795 799 0.5 TX : 317 320 1,440 1,455 456 466 2.2 VT : 146 145 1,415 1,410 207 204 -1.4 VA : 108 103 1,260 1,340 136 138 1.5 WA : 243 234 1,810 1,820 440 426 -3.2 WI : 1,249 1,237 1,410 1,415 1,761 1,750 -0.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,721 7,765 1,517 1,526 11,709 11,846 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 167 1,735 1,770 269 296 10.0 CA : 1,698 1,740 1,720 1,770 2,921 3,080 5.4 FL : 140 137 1,105 1,160 155 159 2.6 ID : 412 434 1,820 1,800 750 781 4.1 IL : 109 106 1,495 1,480 163 157 -3.7 IN : 155 152 1,650 1,605 256 244 -4.7 IA : 198 190 1,540 1,540 305 293 -3.9 KY : 111 109 1,035 1,035 115 113 -1.7 MI : 303 305 1,790 1,730 542 528 -2.6 MN : 465 460 1,410 1,425 656 656 MO : 126 120 1,200 1,230 151 148 -2.0 NM : 318 325 1,745 1,690 555 549 -1.1 NY : 665 650 1,455 1,470 968 956 -1.2 OH : 259 266 1,420 1,420 368 378 2.7 PA : 562 563 1,455 1,465 818 825 0.9 TX : 317 320 1,420 1,470 450 470 4.4 VT : 147 145 1,450 1,455 213 211 -0.9 VA : 109 104 1,245 1,355 136 141 3.7 WA : 244 234 1,890 1,895 461 443 -3.9 WI : 1,250 1,238 1,465 1,475 1,831 1,826 -0.3 : 20-State : Total : 7,743 7,765 1,561 1,578 12,083 12,254 1.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.03 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.1 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.1 464 209 68 362 9 1 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.6 1.1 99 36 2 148 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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