Da 1-1 (1-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released January 18, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. December Milk Production Up 1.0 Percent Milk production in the 20 major States during December totaled 12.4 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from December 2003. November revised production, at 11.9 billion pounds, was up 1.2 percent from November 2003. The November revision represented an increase of 5 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 20 major States averaged 1,602 pounds for December, 6 pounds above December 2003. The number of milk cows on farms in the 20 major States was 7.76 million head, 47,000 head more than December 2003, but 4,000 head less than November 2004. October-December Milk Production Up 0.9 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the October-December quarter totaled 41.9 billion pounds, up 0.9 percent from the October-December quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.02 million head, 7,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,144 8,990 4,710 4,750 43,069 42,701 -0.9 Apr-Jun : 9,109 8,998 4,827 4,858 43,965 43,712 -0.6 Jul-Sep : 9,073 9,031 4,601 4,670 41,746 42,174 1.0 Oct-Dec : 9,011 9,018 4,609 4,646 41,532 41,895 0.9 : Annual : 9,084 9,009 18,749 18,924 170,312 170,482 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 20 Selected States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 7,810 7,716 1,615 1,619 12,616 12,491 -1.0 Feb : 7,811 7,716 1,489 1,528 11,628 11,787 1.4 Mar : 7,810 7,717 1,666 1,658 13,014 12,798 -1.7 Apr : 7,800 7,721 1,627 1,630 12,693 12,588 -0.8 May : 7,787 7,722 1,671 1,684 13,013 13,007 Jun : 7,785 7,742 1,596 1,603 12,428 12,410 -0.1 Jul : 7,780 7,759 1,597 1,616 12,421 12,541 1.0 Aug : 7,771 7,766 1,571 1,594 12,207 12,376 1.4 Sep : 7,764 7,769 1,511 1,529 11,731 11,878 1.3 Oct : 7,743 7,765 1,561 1,578 12,083 12,254 1.4 Nov : 7,721 7,764 1,517 1,526 11,709 11,851 1.2 Dec : 7,713 7,760 1,596 1,602 12,313 12,432 1.0 : Annual : 7,775 7,743 19,017 19,167 147,856 148,413 0.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,147 8,994 1,594 1,600 14,584 14,387 -1.4 Feb : 9,145 8,989 1,470 1,510 13,441 13,575 1.0 Mar : 9,141 8,987 1,646 1,640 15,044 14,739 -2.0 Apr : 9,125 8,989 1,604 1,611 14,634 14,479 -1.1 May : 9,104 8,990 1,648 1,664 15,003 14,961 -0.3 Jun : 9,097 9,014 1,575 1,583 14,328 14,272 -0.4 Jul : 9,087 9,029 1,570 1,592 14,263 14,374 0.8 Aug : 9,072 9,033 1,545 1,571 14,015 14,186 1.2 Sep : 9,061 9,032 1,486 1,507 13,468 13,614 1.1 Oct : 9,034 9,024 1,538 1,557 13,898 14,049 1.1 Nov : 9,005 9,020 1,496 1,507 13,470 13,589 0.9 Dec : 8,994 9,011 1,575 1,582 14,164 14,257 0.7 : Annual : 9,084 9,009 18,749 18,924 170,312 170,482 0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, December 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 166 1,895 1,890 294 314 6.8 CA : 1,697 1,741 1,740 1,775 2,953 3,090 4.6 FL : 140 138 1,355 1,375 190 190 ID : 412 435 1,800 1,780 742 774 4.3 IL : 109 106 1,585 1,540 173 163 -5.8 IN : 145 155 1,700 1,620 247 251 1.6 IA : 196 188 1,580 1,590 310 299 -3.5 KY : 112 110 1,070 1,075 120 118 -1.7 MI : 300 307 1,765 1,725 530 530 MN : 465 460 1,485 1,475 691 679 -1.7 MO : 124 119 1,250 1,270 155 151 -2.6 NM : 324 321 1,730 1,650 561 530 -5.5 NY : 657 646 1,480 1,485 972 959 -1.3 OH : 258 266 1,440 1,460 372 388 4.3 PA : 562 565 1,480 1,490 832 842 1.2 TX : 317 319 1,575 1,555 499 496 -0.6 VT : 146 143 1,505 1,515 220 217 -1.4 VA : 106 104 1,335 1,420 142 148 4.2 WA : 241 235 1,900 1,920 458 451 -1.5 WI : 1,247 1,236 1,485 1,490 1,852 1,842 -0.5 : 20-State : Total : 7,713 7,760 1,596 1,602 12,313 12,432 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, November 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : From : : : : : : : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 168 1,775 1,760 275 296 7.6 CA : 1,694 1,741 1,665 1,700 2,821 2,960 4.9 FL : 140 137 1,180 1,250 165 171 3.6 ID : 412 434 1,740 1,720 717 746 4.0 IL : 109 106 1,485 1,450 162 154 -4.9 IN : 151 154 1,620 1,560 245 240 -2.0 IA : 197 190 1,515 1,520 298 289 -3.0 KY : 112 109 1,025 1,030 115 112 -2.6 MI : 300 306 1,675 1,660 503 508 1.0 MN : 465 460 1,390 1,390 646 639 -1.1 MO : 125 120 1,190 1,215 149 146 -2.0 NM : 320 324 1,670 1,605 534 520 -2.6 NY : 660 646 1,410 1,410 931 911 -2.1 OH : 258 266 1,370 1,390 353 370 4.8 PA : 560 563 1,420 1,420 795 799 0.5 TX : 317 320 1,440 1,455 456 466 2.2 VT : 146 144 1,415 1,415 207 204 -1.4 VA : 108 104 1,260 1,360 136 141 3.7 WA : 243 235 1,810 1,825 440 429 -2.5 WI : 1,249 1,237 1,410 1,415 1,761 1,750 -0.6 : 20-State : Total : 7,721 7,764 1,517 1,526 11,709 11,851 1.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2004 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised July-September, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 53 52 -1.9 AK : 1.2 1.2 4.4 3.8 -13.6 AZ : 155 162 770 848 10.1 AR : 28 26 79 72 -8.9 CA : 1,693 1,733 8,768 9,133 4.2 CO : 100 103 545 553 1.5 CT : 22 21 99 95 -4.0 DE : 8.0 7.0 31.0 28.8 -7.1 FL : 140 138 470 499 6.2 GA : 85 84 319 319 HI : 6.5 5.9 22.6 19.6 -13.3 ID : 411 430 2,266 2,358 4.1 IL : 110 107 482 476 -1.2 IN : 152 150 730 717 -1.8 IA : 200 191 924 876 -5.2 KS : 110 115 505 546 8.1 KY : 113 110 333 340 2.1 LA : 42 37 109 103 -5.5 ME : 35 34 157 156 -0.6 MD : 77 73 294 282 -4.1 MA : 18 17 79 74 -6.3 MI : 304 303 1,639 1,583 -3.4 MN : 472 465 1,995 1,984 -0.6 MS : 30 27 87 80 -8.0 MO : 128 121 430 436 1.4 MT : 18 18 87 88 1.1 NE : 63 61 268 254 -5.2 NV : 26 25 123 122 -0.8 NH : 16 16 74 75 1.4 NJ : 12 12 52 49 -5.8 NM : 317 329 1,664 1,706 2.5 NY : 671 655 2,965 2,907 -2.0 NC : 60 56 243 241 -0.8 ND : 35 34 137 134 -2.2 OH : 260 266 1,103 1,135 2.9 OK : 81 77 319 307 -3.8 OR : 120 120 555 574 3.4 PA : 570 560 2,507 2,465 -1.7 RI : 1.3 1.1 5.3 4.6 -13.2 SC : 18 17 64 63 -1.6 SD : 82 80 332 333 0.3 TN : 78 75 270 265 -1.9 TX : 320 320 1,283 1,412 10.1 UT : 90 88 405 418 3.2 VT : 147 145 649 645 -0.6 VA : 112 104 401 415 3.5 WA : 244 237 1,412 1,356 -4.0 WV : 15 13 56 51 -8.9 WI : 1,254 1,240 5,568 5,504 -1.1 WY : 3.7 4.2 13.0 16.0 23.1 : US 3/ : 9,073 9,031 41,746 42,174 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary October-December, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 60 56 -6.7 AK : 1.2 1.2 3.5 3.4 -2.9 AZ : 155 167 838 906 8.1 AR : 28 26 80 73 -8.8 CA : 1,696 1,741 8,695 9,130 5.0 CO : 99 102 540 553 2.4 CT : 21 20 99 95 -4.0 DE : 8.0 7.5 32.0 31.5 -1.6 FL : 140 137 510 520 2.0 GA : 84 84 337 334 -0.9 HI : 6.6 5.8 21.1 17.8 -15.6 ID : 412 434 2,209 2,301 4.2 IL : 109 106 498 474 -4.8 IN : 150 154 748 735 -1.7 IA : 197 189 913 881 -3.5 KS : 110 113 530 540 1.9 KY : 112 109 350 343 -2.0 LA : 41 36 118 109 -7.6 ME : 34 33 151 148 -2.0 MD : 77 73 301 288 -4.3 MA : 18 17 76 73 -3.9 MI : 301 306 1,575 1,566 -0.6 MN : 465 460 1,993 1,974 -1.0 MS : 29 26 96 87 -9.4 MO : 125 120 455 445 -2.2 MT : 18 18 86 86 NE : 62 61 270 264 -2.2 NV : 26 25 120 121 0.8 NH : 16 16 73 75 2.7 NJ : 12 12 50 47 -6.0 NM : 321 323 1,650 1,599 -3.1 NY : 661 647 2,871 2,826 -1.6 NC : 59 55 250 242 -3.2 ND : 34 33 131 127 -3.1 OH : 258 266 1,093 1,136 3.9 OK : 81 75 320 297 -7.2 OR : 118 120 535 555 3.7 PA : 561 564 2,445 2,466 0.9 RI : 1.3 1.1 5.0 4.5 -10.0 SC : 18 18 72 69 -4.2 SD : 80 80 321 335 4.4 TN : 77 73 285 270 -5.3 TX : 317 320 1,405 1,432 1.9 UT : 90 89 398 392 -1.5 VT : 146 144 640 632 -1.3 VA : 108 104 414 430 3.9 WA : 243 235 1,359 1,323 -2.6 WV : 14 13 52 49 -5.8 WI : 1,249 1,237 5,444 5,418 -0.5 WY : 3.9 4.1 14.4 15.6 8.3 : US 3/ : 9,011 9,018 41,532 41,895 0.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 0.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.02 million head by more than 0.5 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.9 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 335 149 1 265 7 3 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.5 0.9 81 32 2 106 8 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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