Da 1-1 (3-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released March 16, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. February Milk Production Down 0.7 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 12.2 billion pounds, down 0.7 percent from February 2004. However, production was 2.8 percent above last year after adjusting for the leap year. January revised production, at 13.3 billion pounds, was up 1.5 percent from January 2004. The January revision represented an increase of 0.2 percent or 29 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,516 pounds for February, 15 pounds below February 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.07 million head, 23,000 head more than February 2004, but 9,000 head less than January 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head --- Pounds -- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 4,755 42,759 Apr-Jun : 9,001 4,869 43,824 Jul-Sep : 9,027 4,679 42,239 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,074 1,531 1,516 12,329 12,240 -0.7 Mar : 8,059 1,661 13,387 Apr : 8,063 1,636 13,194 May : 8,064 1,692 13,641 Jun : 8,083 1,607 12,988 Jul : 8,096 1,623 13,143 Aug : 8,102 1,601 12,970 Sep : 8,104 1,533 12,426 Oct : 8,103 1,583 12,824 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,232 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2003-2004 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,993 1,603 1,620 14,402 14,570 1.2 Feb : 8,993 8,980 1,512 1,498 13,595 13,450 -1.1 Mar : 9,002 1,640 14,762 Apr : 8,999 1,613 14,519 May : 8,991 1,670 15,012 Jun : 9,014 1,586 14,293 Jul : 9,028 1,596 14,405 Aug : 9,029 1,574 14,215 Sep : 9,025 1,509 13,619 Oct : 9,023 1,559 14,070 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,610 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,303 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 164 1,960 1,840 304 302 -0.7 CA : 1,706 1,742 1,675 1,635 2,858 2,848 -0.3 CO : 100 99 1,680 1,720 168 170 1.2 FL : 139 139 1,415 1,460 197 203 3.0 ID : 412 437 1,660 1,660 684 725 6.0 IL : 108 105 1,520 1,500 164 158 -3.7 IN : 145 154 1,565 1,510 227 233 2.6 IA : 195 187 1,590 1,580 310 295 -4.8 KS : 112 108 1,545 1,570 173 170 -1.7 KY : 111 110 1,035 1,020 115 112 -2.6 MI : 299 306 1,660 1,640 496 502 1.2 MN : 465 455 1,415 1,405 658 639 -2.9 MO : 124 117 1,185 1,220 147 143 -2.7 NM : 326 320 1,660 1,560 541 499 -7.8 NY : 660 650 1,400 1,415 924 920 -0.4 OH : 259 267 1,370 1,370 355 366 3.1 OR : 119 120 1,475 1,460 176 175 -0.6 PA : 564 560 1,425 1,420 804 795 -1.1 TX : 317 317 1,585 1,560 502 495 -1.4 VT : 145 143 1,435 1,430 208 204 -1.9 VA : 105 105 1,320 1,360 139 143 2.9 WA : 240 235 1,790 1,820 430 428 -0.5 WI : 1,245 1,234 1,405 1,390 1,749 1,715 -1.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,051 8,074 1,531 1,516 12,329 12,240 -0.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, January 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 165 2,010 1,970 312 325 4.2 CA : 1,701 1,739 1,760 1,770 2,994 3,078 2.8 CO : 99 100 1,830 1,860 181 186 2.8 FL : 140 138 1,435 1,500 201 207 3.0 ID : 412 436 1,800 1,830 742 798 7.5 IL : 108 105 1,610 1,620 174 170 -2.3 IN : 145 154 1,695 1,630 246 251 2.0 IA : 196 187 1,680 1,715 329 321 -2.4 KS : 111 109 1,695 1,730 188 189 0.5 KY : 112 110 1,090 1,090 122 120 -1.6 MI : 300 306 1,780 1,770 534 542 1.5 MN : 465 460 1,505 1,520 700 699 -0.1 MO : 125 118 1,265 1,300 158 153 -3.2 NM : 325 319 1,760 1,710 572 545 -4.7 NY : 658 650 1,490 1,535 980 998 1.8 OH : 258 267 1,450 1,460 374 390 4.3 OR : 118 120 1,565 1,565 185 188 1.6 PA : 563 564 1,500 1,540 845 869 2.8 TX : 317 318 1,660 1,655 526 526 VT : 146 143 1,515 1,560 221 223 0.9 VA : 105 105 1,410 1,465 148 154 4.1 WA : 240 235 1,895 1,960 455 461 1.3 WI : 1,245 1,235 1,505 1,510 1,874 1,865 -0.5 : 23-State : Total : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 October-December quarters is 0.4 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final October-December estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.02 million head by more than 0.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.7 percent. Reliability of October-December Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.8 336 147 1 265 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.4 0.7 63 22 1 73 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 October-December quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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