Da 1-1 (4-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released April 15, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. March Milk Production Up 3.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during March totaled 13.8 billion pounds, up 3.1 percent from March 2004. February revised production, at 12.3 billion pounds, was down 0.5 percent from February 2004. However, production was up 3.1 percent on a per day basis after adjusting for the leap year. The February revision represented an increase of 30 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,704 pounds for March, 43 pounds above March 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.10 million head, 38,000 head more than March 2004, and 21,000 head more than February 2005. January-February Milk Production Up 1.1 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the January-March quarter totaled 43.2 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from the January-March quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.00 million head, 2,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 8,995 4,755 4,807 42,759 43,238 1.1 Apr-Jun : 9,001 4,869 43,824 Jul-Sep : 9,027 4,679 42,239 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 Mar : 8,059 8,097 1,661 1,704 13,387 13,799 3.1 Apr : 8,063 1,636 13,194 May : 8,064 1,692 13,641 Jun : 8,083 1,607 12,988 Jul : 8,096 1,623 13,143 Aug : 8,102 1,601 12,970 Sep : 8,104 1,533 12,426 Oct : 8,103 1,583 12,824 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,232 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,993 1,603 1,621 14,402 14,576 1.2 Feb : 8,993 8,982 1,512 1,502 13,595 13,490 -0.8 Mar : 9,002 9,010 1,640 1,684 14,762 15,172 2.8 Apr : 8,999 1,613 14,519 May : 8,991 1,670 15,012 Jun : 9,014 1,586 14,293 Jul : 9,028 1,596 14,405 Aug : 9,029 1,574 14,215 Sep : 9,025 1,509 13,619 Oct : 9,023 1,559 14,070 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,610 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,303 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 164 2,120 2,060 329 338 2.7 CA : 1,710 1,748 1,815 1,845 3,104 3,225 3.9 CO : 100 101 1,830 1,910 183 193 5.5 FL : 138 139 1,550 1,635 214 227 6.1 ID : 413 440 1,780 1,870 735 823 12.0 IL : 108 105 1,650 1,670 178 175 -1.7 IN : 147 154 1,820 1,700 268 262 -2.2 IA : 195 187 1,730 1,770 337 331 -1.8 KS : 113 110 1,680 1,755 190 193 1.6 KY : 110 109 1,175 1,165 129 127 -1.6 MI : 301 308 1,810 1,820 545 561 2.9 MN : 465 455 1,510 1,560 702 710 1.1 MO : 123 119 1,345 1,370 165 163 -1.2 NM : 327 322 1,765 1,790 577 576 -0.2 NY : 660 651 1,510 1,595 997 1,038 4.1 OH : 260 268 1,510 1,520 393 407 3.6 OR : 120 121 1,560 1,620 187 196 4.8 PA : 564 560 1,570 1,600 885 896 1.2 TX : 317 317 1,735 1,790 550 567 3.1 VT : 145 143 1,530 1,595 222 228 2.7 VA : 105 105 1,465 1,495 154 157 1.9 WA : 239 238 1,945 2,030 465 483 3.9 WI : 1,244 1,233 1,510 1,560 1,878 1,923 2.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,059 8,097 1,661 1,704 13,387 13,799 3.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, February 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 164 1,960 1,840 304 302 -0.7 CA : 1,706 1,742 1,675 1,635 2,858 2,848 -0.3 CO : 100 100 1,680 1,720 168 172 2.4 FL : 139 139 1,415 1,475 197 205 4.1 ID : 412 437 1,660 1,680 684 734 7.3 IL : 108 105 1,520 1,500 164 158 -3.7 IN : 145 154 1,565 1,510 227 233 2.6 IA : 195 187 1,590 1,580 310 295 -4.8 KS : 112 109 1,545 1,575 173 172 -0.6 KY : 111 110 1,035 1,000 115 110 -4.3 MI : 299 306 1,660 1,640 496 502 1.2 MN : 465 455 1,415 1,405 658 639 -2.9 MO : 124 117 1,185 1,220 147 143 -2.7 NM : 326 320 1,660 1,560 541 499 -7.8 NY : 660 650 1,400 1,415 924 920 -0.4 OH : 259 267 1,370 1,370 355 366 3.1 OR : 119 120 1,475 1,460 176 175 -0.6 PA : 564 560 1,425 1,420 804 795 -1.1 TX : 317 317 1,585 1,560 502 495 -1.4 VT : 145 143 1,435 1,430 208 204 -1.9 VA : 105 105 1,320 1,345 139 141 1.4 WA : 240 235 1,790 1,820 430 428 -0.5 WI : 1,245 1,234 1,405 1,405 1,749 1,734 -0.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised October-December, 2003-2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Oct-Dec Milk Cows 1/ : Oct-Dec Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 : 2004 : 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 18 17 60 56 -6.7 AK : 1.2 1.2 3.5 3.4 -2.9 AZ : 155 167 847 910 7.4 AR : 27 23 80 73 -8.8 CA : 1,696 1,741 8,695 9,130 5.0 CO : 99 103 523 553 5.7 CT : 21 20 99 95 -4.0 DE : 8.0 7.5 30.0 31.5 5.0 FL : 140 137 510 531 4.1 GA : 84 84 337 334 -0.9 HI : 6.6 5.8 21.1 17.4 -17.5 ID : 412 434 2,209 2,310 4.6 IL : 109 106 498 474 -4.8 IN : 151 154 743 726 -2.3 IA : 197 190 930 939 1.0 KS : 110 112 536 544 1.5 KY : 112 109 351 341 -2.8 LA : 41 36 118 108 -8.5 ME : 34 33 151 148 -2.0 MD : 77 73 293 285 -2.7 MA : 18 17 76 73 -3.9 MI : 302 306 1,583 1,565 -1.1 MN : 465 460 1,993 1,974 -1.0 MS : 29 26 96 86 -10.4 MO : 125 120 455 445 -2.2 MT : 18 18 85 86 1.2 NE : 62 61 270 264 -2.2 NV : 25 25 120 128 6.7 NH : 16 16 73 74 1.4 NJ : 12 12 50 47 -6.0 NM : 321 322 1,650 1,593 -3.5 NY : 661 651 2,871 2,843 -1.0 NC : 59 55 250 242 -3.2 ND : 34 33 126 127 0.8 OH : 258 266 1,093 1,131 3.5 OK : 81 75 320 297 -7.2 OR : 118 120 538 556 3.3 PA : 561 564 2,445 2,466 0.9 RI : 1.3 1.1 5.1 4.5 -11.8 SC : 18 18 72 69 -4.2 SD : 80 80 326 338 3.7 TN : 77 73 285 270 -5.3 TX : 317 320 1,405 1,432 1.9 UT : 90 89 405 397 -2.0 VT : 146 144 640 632 -1.3 VA : 108 104 414 428 3.4 WA : 243 235 1,359 1,324 -2.6 WV : 14 13 52 48 -7.7 WI : 1,249 1,237 5,444 5,418 -0.5 WY : 3.9 4.4 14.4 16.3 13.2 : US 3/ : 9,011 9,019 41,550 41,983 1.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary January-March, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jan-Mar Milk Cows 1/ : Jan-Mar Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 17 16 71 63 -11.3 AK : 1.2 1.2 3.6 3.5 -2.8 AZ : 155 164 945 965 2.1 AR : 25 23 86 82 -4.7 CA : 1,706 1,743 8,956 9,151 2.2 CO : 100 100 532 551 3.6 CT : 21 20 102 99 -2.9 DE : 7.5 7.5 34.0 34.0 FL : 139 139 612 639 4.4 GA : 84 83 381 377 -1.0 HI : 6.5 5.8 21.9 17.6 -19.6 ID : 412 438 2,161 2,355 9.0 IL : 108 105 516 503 -2.5 IN : 146 154 741 746 0.7 IA : 195 187 976 947 -3.0 KS : 112 109 551 554 0.5 KY : 111 110 366 357 -2.5 LA : 40 36 139 127 -8.6 ME : 34 32 151 147 -2.6 MD : 76 73 300 299 -0.3 MA : 17 17 74 73 -1.4 MI : 300 307 1,575 1,605 1.9 MN : 465 457 2,060 2,048 -0.6 MS : 28 26 109 109 MO : 124 118 470 459 -2.3 MT : 18 18 85 87 2.4 NE : 61 60 267 264 -1.1 NV : 25 25 127 128 0.8 NH : 16 16 76 76 NJ : 12 12 52 49 -5.8 NM : 326 320 1,690 1,620 -4.1 NY : 659 650 2,901 2,956 1.9 NC : 58 55 264 253 -4.2 ND : 33 33 129 128 -0.8 OH : 259 267 1,122 1,163 3.7 OK : 80 75 330 311 -5.8 OR : 119 120 548 559 2.0 PA : 564 561 2,534 2,560 1.0 RI : 1.2 1.0 5.2 4.5 -13.5 SC : 17 18 79 79 SD : 80 80 333 344 3.3 TN : 77 72 310 295 -4.8 TX : 317 317 1,578 1,588 0.6 UT : 88 88 387 398 2.8 VT : 145 143 651 655 0.6 VA : 105 105 441 452 2.5 WA : 240 236 1,350 1,372 1.6 WV : 13 13 50 48 -4.0 WI : 1,245 1,234 5,501 5,522 0.4 WY : 4.1 4.4 14.8 15.6 5.4 : US 3/ : 8,993 8,995 42,759 43,238 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.00 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.4 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 303 136 10 375 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.4 36 15 2 44 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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