Da 1-1 (5-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released May 17, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. April Milk Production Up 3.2 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during April totaled 13.6 billion pounds, up 3.2 percent from April 2004. March revised production, at 13.8 billion pounds, was up 2.9 percent from March 2004. The March revision represented a decrease of 0.1 percent or 20 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,679 pounds for April, 43 pounds above April 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.11 million head, 44,000 head more than April 2004, and 12,000 head more than March 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 8,995 4,755 4,805 42,759 43,218 1.1 Apr-Jun : 9,001 4,869 43,824 Jul-Sep : 9,027 4,679 42,239 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 Mar : 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 2.9 Apr : 8,063 8,107 1,636 1,679 13,194 13,612 3.2 May : 8,064 1,692 13,641 Jun : 8,083 1,607 12,988 Jul : 8,096 1,623 13,143 Aug : 8,102 1,601 12,970 Sep : 8,104 1,533 12,426 Oct : 8,103 1,583 12,824 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,232 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,993 1,603 1,621 14,402 14,577 1.2 Feb : 8,993 8,982 1,512 1,502 13,595 13,491 -0.8 Mar : 9,002 9,009 1,640 1,682 14,762 15,150 2.6 Apr : 8,999 9,026 1,613 1,655 14,519 14,936 2.9 May : 8,991 1,670 15,012 Jun : 9,014 1,586 14,293 Jul : 9,028 1,596 14,405 Aug : 9,029 1,574 14,215 Sep : 9,025 1,509 13,619 Oct : 9,023 1,559 14,070 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,610 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,303 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 164 2,090 2,050 324 336 3.7 CA : 1,716 1,751 1,790 1,820 3,072 3,187 3.7 CO : 101 103 1,800 1,880 182 194 6.6 FL : 138 138 1,515 1,600 209 221 5.7 ID : 414 443 1,770 1,850 733 820 11.9 IL : 108 105 1,580 1,605 171 169 -1.2 IN : 149 155 1,750 1,690 261 262 0.4 IA : 195 187 1,700 1,740 332 325 -2.1 KS : 113 111 1,675 1,755 189 195 3.2 KY : 109 107 1,155 1,150 126 123 -2.4 MI : 301 309 1,745 1,800 525 556 5.9 MN : 465 455 1,480 1,520 688 692 0.6 MO : 124 119 1,370 1,350 170 161 -5.3 NM : 327 323 1,730 1,780 566 575 1.6 NY : 658 646 1,500 1,545 987 998 1.1 OH : 261 269 1,500 1,500 392 404 3.1 OR : 120 121 1,590 1,540 191 186 -2.6 PA : 561 563 1,550 1,590 870 895 2.9 TX : 317 319 1,705 1,780 540 568 5.2 VT : 145 143 1,485 1,580 215 226 5.1 VA : 105 105 1,450 1,485 152 156 2.6 WA : 239 238 1,905 1,975 455 470 3.3 WI : 1,242 1,233 1,485 1,535 1,844 1,893 2.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,063 8,107 1,636 1,679 13,194 13,612 3.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, March 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 164 2,120 2,060 329 338 2.7 CA : 1,710 1,748 1,815 1,845 3,104 3,225 3.9 CO : 100 102 1,830 1,925 183 196 7.1 FL : 138 139 1,550 1,640 214 228 6.5 ID : 413 441 1,780 1,880 735 829 12.8 IL : 108 105 1,650 1,670 178 175 -1.7 IN : 147 154 1,820 1,700 268 262 -2.2 IA : 195 187 1,730 1,770 337 331 -1.8 KS : 113 110 1,680 1,790 190 197 3.7 KY : 110 107 1,175 1,160 129 124 -3.9 MI : 301 308 1,810 1,820 545 561 2.9 MN : 465 455 1,510 1,545 702 703 0.1 MO : 123 119 1,345 1,370 165 163 -1.2 NM : 327 322 1,765 1,790 577 576 -0.2 NY : 660 648 1,510 1,570 997 1,017 2.0 OH : 260 268 1,510 1,520 393 407 3.6 OR : 120 121 1,560 1,560 187 189 1.1 PA : 564 560 1,570 1,600 885 896 1.2 TX : 317 318 1,735 1,795 550 571 3.8 VT : 145 143 1,530 1,595 222 228 2.7 VA : 105 105 1,465 1,495 154 157 1.9 WA : 239 238 1,945 2,030 465 483 3.9 WI : 1,244 1,233 1,510 1,560 1,878 1,923 2.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 2.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.00 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.4 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 303 136 10 375 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.4 36 15 2 44 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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