Da 1-1 (6-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 16, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ty Kalaus at 202-690-3236, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Up 4.4 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 14.2 billion pounds, up 4.4 percent from May 2004. April revised production, at 13.6 billion pounds, was up 3.4 percent from April 2004. The April revision represented an increase of 0.3 percent or 35 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,754 pounds for May, 62 pounds above May 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.12 million head, 54,000 head more than May 2004, and 9,000 head more than April 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 8,995 4,755 4,805 42,759 43,218 1.1 Apr-Jun : 9,001 4,869 43,824 Jul-Sep : 9,027 4,679 42,239 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 Mar : 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 2.9 Apr : 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 3.4 May : 8,064 8,118 1,692 1,754 13,641 14,240 4.4 Jun : 8,083 1,607 12,988 Jul : 8,096 1,623 13,143 Aug : 8,102 1,601 12,970 Sep : 8,104 1,533 12,426 Oct : 8,103 1,583 12,824 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,232 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,993 1,603 1,621 14,402 14,577 1.2 Feb : 8,993 8,982 1,512 1,502 13,595 13,491 -0.8 Mar : 9,002 9,009 1,640 1,682 14,762 15,150 2.6 Apr : 8,999 9,028 1,613 1,659 14,519 14,975 3.1 May : 8,991 9,040 1,670 1,729 15,012 15,626 4.1 Jun : 9,014 1,586 14,293 Jul : 9,028 1,596 14,405 Aug : 9,029 1,574 14,215 Sep : 9,025 1,509 13,619 Oct : 9,023 1,559 14,070 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,610 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,303 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 163 2,095 2,090 325 341 4.9 CA : 1,720 1,754 1,830 1,875 3,148 3,289 4.5 CO : 102 104 1,830 1,950 187 203 8.6 FL : 139 138 1,525 1,580 212 218 2.8 ID : 417 445 1,850 1,920 771 854 10.8 IL : 108 104 1,620 1,660 175 173 -1.1 IN : 149 155 1,800 1,800 268 279 4.1 IA : 195 186 1,760 1,820 343 339 -1.2 KS : 114 112 1,710 1,815 195 203 4.1 KY : 110 107 1,190 1,195 131 128 -2.3 MI : 301 310 1,795 1,900 540 589 9.1 MN : 460 455 1,555 1,610 715 733 2.5 MO : 124 119 1,380 1,390 171 165 -3.5 NM : 327 323 1,810 1,880 592 607 2.5 NY : 655 646 1,580 1,665 1,035 1,076 4.0 OH : 263 270 1,540 1,570 405 424 4.7 OR : 120 121 1,665 1,680 200 203 1.5 PA : 557 565 1,605 1,675 894 946 5.8 TX : 317 320 1,720 1,830 545 586 7.5 VT : 145 144 1,545 1,650 224 238 6.3 VA : 105 105 1,455 1,550 153 163 6.5 WA : 239 239 1,985 2,060 474 492 3.8 WI : 1,242 1,233 1,560 1,615 1,938 1,991 2.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,064 8,118 1,692 1,754 13,641 14,240 4.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 155 164 2,090 2,050 324 336 3.7 CA : 1,716 1,751 1,790 1,820 3,072 3,187 3.7 CO : 101 103 1,800 1,865 182 192 5.5 FL : 138 138 1,515 1,575 209 217 3.8 ID : 414 443 1,770 1,850 733 820 11.9 IL : 108 105 1,580 1,605 171 169 -1.2 IN : 149 155 1,750 1,690 261 262 0.4 IA : 195 187 1,700 1,740 332 325 -2.1 KS : 113 111 1,675 1,755 189 195 3.2 KY : 109 107 1,155 1,150 126 123 -2.4 MI : 301 309 1,745 1,800 525 556 5.9 MN : 465 455 1,480 1,540 688 701 1.9 MO : 124 119 1,370 1,350 170 161 -5.3 NM : 327 323 1,730 1,780 566 575 1.6 NY : 658 646 1,500 1,565 987 1,011 2.4 OH : 261 269 1,500 1,500 392 404 3.1 OR : 120 121 1,590 1,610 191 195 2.1 PA : 561 563 1,550 1,600 870 901 3.6 TX : 317 319 1,705 1,780 540 568 5.2 VT : 145 144 1,485 1,570 215 226 5.1 VA : 105 105 1,450 1,485 152 156 2.6 WA : 239 239 1,905 1,985 455 474 4.2 WI : 1,242 1,233 1,485 1,535 1,844 1,893 2.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 3.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January-March quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January-March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.00 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.4 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 303 136 10 375 6 4 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.4 36 15 2 44 6 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to the Internet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select "Today's Reports" or Publications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject. E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click on the Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada) Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900 (Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASSISTANCE For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its products or services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs and activities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information (Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA's TARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD). To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call 202-720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.