Da 1-1 (9-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released September 16, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ann Summa at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. August Milk Production Up 4.6 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during August totaled 13.6 billion pounds, up 4.6 percent from August 2004. July revised production, at 13.7 billion pounds, was up 4.2 percent from July 2004. The July revision represented a decrease of 6 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,665 pounds for August, 64 pounds above August 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.15 million head, 52,000 head more than August 2004, and 9,000 head more than July 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 8,996 4,755 4,807 42,759 43,242 1.1 Apr-Jun : 9,001 9,035 4,869 5,054 43,824 45,662 4.2 Jul-Sep : 9,027 4,679 42,239 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,809 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 Mar : 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 2.9 Apr : 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 3.4 May : 8,064 8,121 1,692 1,757 13,641 14,266 4.6 Jun : 8,083 8,132 1,607 1,686 12,988 13,712 5.6 Jul : 8,096 8,145 1,623 1,681 13,143 13,692 4.2 Aug : 8,102 8,154 1,601 1,665 12,970 13,573 4.6 Sep : 8,104 1,533 12,426 Oct : 8,103 1,583 12,824 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,231 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,995 1,603 1,622 14,402 14,586 1.3 Feb : 8,993 8,984 1,512 1,502 13,595 13,498 -0.7 Mar : 9,002 9,009 1,640 1,683 14,762 15,158 2.7 Apr : 8,999 9,023 1,613 1,659 14,519 14,970 3.1 May : 8,991 9,036 1,670 1,732 15,012 15,650 4.2 Jun : 9,014 9,047 1,586 1,663 14,293 15,042 5.2 Jul : 9,028 9,062 1,596 1,651 14,405 14,960 3.9 Aug : 9,029 9,074 1,574 1,634 14,215 14,830 4.3 Sep : 9,025 1,509 13,619 Oct : 9,023 1,559 14,070 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,613 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,304 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,809 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 163 161 1,710 1,780 279 287 2.9 CA : 1,733 1,763 1,775 1,790 3,076 3,156 2.6 CO : 103 105 1,835 1,970 189 207 9.5 FL : 138 135 1,225 1,240 169 167 -1.2 ID : 431 466 1,850 1,940 797 904 13.4 IL : 107 104 1,490 1,515 159 158 -0.6 IN : 149 156 1,620 1,660 241 259 7.5 IA : 192 186 1,640 1,680 315 312 -1.0 KS : 115 112 1,600 1,690 184 189 2.7 KY : 110 106 1,045 1,030 115 109 -5.2 MI : 303 313 1,755 1,815 532 568 6.8 MN : 465 455 1,440 1,505 670 685 2.2 MO : 121 115 1,210 1,170 146 135 -7.5 NM : 327 331 1,740 1,825 569 604 6.2 NY : 654 647 1,500 1,600 981 1,035 5.5 OH : 266 270 1,430 1,460 380 394 3.7 OR : 120 121 1,615 1,590 194 192 -1.0 PA : 560 562 1,475 1,575 826 885 7.1 TX : 320 320 1,465 1,625 469 520 10.9 VT : 145 143 1,495 1,550 217 222 2.3 VA : 104 105 1,335 1,370 139 144 3.6 WA : 236 242 1,910 1,990 451 482 6.9 WI : 1,240 1,236 1,510 1,585 1,872 1,959 4.6 : 23-State : Total : 8,102 8,154 1,601 1,665 12,970 13,573 4.6 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, July 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 158 162 1,810 1,875 286 304 6.3 CA : 1,729 1,760 1,780 1,775 3,078 3,124 1.5 CO : 103 105 1,760 1,960 181 206 13.8 FL : 139 136 1,340 1,310 186 178 -4.3 ID : 427 460 1,860 1,960 794 902 13.6 IL : 107 104 1,520 1,580 163 164 0.6 IN : 150 156 1,640 1,700 246 265 7.7 IA : 193 187 1,660 1,700 320 318 -0.6 KS : 115 112 1,625 1,695 187 190 1.6 KY : 111 106 1,065 1,065 118 113 -4.2 MI : 303 313 1,790 1,840 542 576 6.3 MN : 465 455 1,460 1,510 679 687 1.2 MO : 122 117 1,240 1,220 151 143 -5.3 NM : 328 328 1,770 1,845 581 605 4.1 NY : 656 647 1,520 1,600 997 1,035 3.8 OH : 265 270 1,450 1,480 384 400 4.2 OR : 120 121 1,660 1,640 199 198 -0.5 PA : 559 561 1,510 1,610 844 903 7.0 TX : 320 320 1,540 1,710 493 547 11.0 VT : 145 143 1,525 1,565 221 224 1.4 VA : 104 105 1,370 1,390 142 146 2.8 WA : 237 241 1,965 2,015 466 486 4.3 WI : 1,240 1,236 1,520 1,600 1,885 1,978 4.9 : 23-State : Total : 8,096 8,145 1,623 1,681 13,143 13,692 4.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 April-June quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final April-June estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.04 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.4 percent. Reliability of April-June Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.3 0.6 274 103 3 264 5 5 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.4 36 15 0 35 5 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 April-June quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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USDA Data Users' Meeting October 17, 2005 Embassy Suites at O'Hare Chicago, Illinois (847) 678-4000 The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service will be organizing an open forum for data users. The purpose will be to provide updates on pending changes in the various statistical and information programs and seek comments and input from data users. Other USDA agencies to be represented will include the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Economic Research Service, the Foreign Agricultural Service, and World Agricultural Outlook Board. The Foreign Trade Division from the Census Bureau will also be included in the meeting. For registration details or additional information for the Data Users' Meeting, see the NASS homepage at www.usda.gov/nass/ or contact Lynda Ford (NASS) at (202) 720-3896 or at lynda_ford@nass.usda.gov. This Data Users' Meeting precedes an Industry Outlook meeting that will be held at the same location on October 18, 2005. 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