Da 1-1 (10-05) a Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released October 17, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ann Summa at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Update Alert The 2005 Jul-Sep Milk Cow data for Texas and Washington on page 6 were corrected to 320 and 242, respectively. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX September Milk Production Up 4.9 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during September totaled 13.0 billion pounds, up 4.9 percent from September 2004. August revised production, at 13.6 billion pounds, was up 4.8 percent from August 2004. The August revision represented an increase of 22 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,597 pounds for September, 64 pounds above September 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.16 million head, 54,000 head more than September 2004, and 1,000 head more than August 2005. July-September Milk Production Up 4.2 Percent Milk production in the U.S. during the July-September quarter totaled 44.0 billion pounds, up 4.2 percent from the July-September quarter last year. The average number of milk cows in the U.S. during the quarter was 9.05 million head, 27,000 head more than the same period last year. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 8,996 4,755 4,807 42,759 43,242 1.1 Apr-Jun : 9,001 9,034 4,869 5,054 43,824 45,660 4.2 Jul-Sep : 9,027 9,054 4,679 4,862 42,239 44,024 4.2 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,809 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 Mar : 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 2.9 Apr : 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 3.4 May : 8,064 8,121 1,692 1,757 13,641 14,266 4.6 Jun : 8,083 8,132 1,607 1,686 12,988 13,712 5.6 Jul : 8,096 8,145 1,623 1,681 13,143 13,692 4.2 Aug : 8,102 8,157 1,601 1,667 12,970 13,595 4.8 Sep : 8,104 8,158 1,533 1,597 12,426 13,032 4.9 Oct : 8,103 1,583 12,824 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,231 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,995 1,603 1,622 14,402 14,586 1.3 Feb : 8,993 8,984 1,512 1,502 13,595 13,498 -0.7 Mar : 9,002 9,009 1,640 1,683 14,762 15,158 2.7 Apr : 8,999 9,023 1,613 1,659 14,519 14,970 3.1 May : 8,991 9,034 1,670 1,732 15,012 15,650 4.2 Jun : 9,014 9,044 1,586 1,663 14,293 15,040 5.2 Jul : 9,028 9,047 1,596 1,654 14,405 14,960 3.9 Aug : 9,029 9,057 1,574 1,637 14,215 14,830 4.3 Sep : 9,025 9,058 1,509 1,571 13,619 14,234 4.5 Oct : 9,023 1,559 14,070 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,613 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,304 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,809 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 165 161 1,660 1,740 274 280 2.2 CA : 1,737 1,765 1,715 1,745 2,979 3,080 3.4 CO : 103 106 1,750 1,855 180 197 9.4 FL : 137 134 1,025 1,130 140 151 7.9 ID : 431 470 1,780 1,860 767 874 14.0 IL : 107 104 1,440 1,450 154 151 -1.9 IN : 150 156 1,540 1,615 231 252 9.1 IA : 191 187 1,580 1,610 302 301 -0.3 KS : 115 112 1,550 1,650 178 185 3.9 KY : 109 105 990 1,000 108 105 -2.8 MI : 303 312 1,670 1,735 506 541 6.9 MN : 465 450 1,365 1,435 635 646 1.7 MO : 121 115 1,150 1,125 139 129 -7.2 NM : 325 333 1,670 1,710 543 569 4.8 NY : 654 649 1,420 1,515 929 983 5.8 OH : 266 270 1,370 1,410 364 381 4.7 OR : 120 121 1,565 1,550 188 188 PA : 562 561 1,415 1,500 795 842 5.9 TX : 320 320 1,405 1,515 450 485 7.8 VT : 145 142 1,430 1,480 207 210 1.4 VA : 104 105 1,290 1,300 134 137 2.2 WA : 235 243 1,870 1,915 439 465 5.9 WI : 1,239 1,237 1,440 1,520 1,784 1,880 5.4 : 23-State : Total : 8,104 8,158 1,533 1,597 12,426 13,032 4.9 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, August 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 163 161 1,710 1,780 279 287 2.9 CA : 1,733 1,763 1,775 1,790 3,076 3,156 2.6 CO : 103 105 1,835 1,970 189 207 9.5 FL : 138 135 1,225 1,240 169 167 -1.2 ID : 431 468 1,850 1,940 797 908 13.9 IL : 107 104 1,490 1,515 159 158 -0.6 IN : 149 157 1,620 1,660 241 261 8.3 IA : 192 186 1,640 1,680 315 312 -1.0 KS : 115 112 1,600 1,690 184 189 2.7 KY : 110 106 1,045 1,030 115 109 -5.2 MI : 303 313 1,755 1,815 532 568 6.8 MN : 465 455 1,440 1,505 670 685 2.2 MO : 121 115 1,210 1,170 146 135 -7.5 NM : 327 331 1,740 1,825 569 604 6.2 NY : 654 647 1,500 1,600 981 1,035 5.5 OH : 266 270 1,430 1,460 380 394 3.7 OR : 120 121 1,615 1,630 194 197 1.5 PA : 560 562 1,475 1,575 826 885 7.1 TX : 320 320 1,465 1,625 469 520 10.9 VT : 145 143 1,495 1,550 217 222 2.3 VA : 104 105 1,335 1,360 139 143 2.9 WA : 236 242 1,910 1,990 451 482 6.9 WI : 1,240 1,236 1,510 1,595 1,872 1,971 5.3 : 23-State : Total : 8,102 8,157 1,601 1,667 12,970 13,595 4.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Revised April-June, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Apr-Jun Milk Cows 1/ : Apr-Jun Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 17 16 66 63 -4.5 AK : 1.2 1.2 3.8 3.8 AZ : 155 163 952 993 4.3 AR : 24 23 85 80 -5.9 CA : 1,720 1,754 9,246 9,656 4.4 CO : 102 104 549 595 8.4 CT : 20 20 100 101 1.0 DE : 7.5 7.5 33.0 35.0 6.1 FL : 139 138 615 632 2.8 GA : 84 82 382 382 HI : 6.2 5.4 22.2 19.0 -14.4 ID : 418 446 2,264 2,536 12.0 IL : 108 104 512 508 -0.8 IN : 149 155 777 809 4.1 IA : 195 187 991 986 -0.5 KS : 114 112 572 592 3.5 KY : 110 107 375 369 -1.6 LA : 38 36 131 124 -5.3 ME : 34 33 157 155 -1.3 MD : 75 72 300 300 MA : 17 17 76 77 1.3 MI : 301 311 1,595 1,719 7.8 MN : 462 455 2,084 2,135 2.4 MS : 27 26 104 109 4.8 MO : 124 119 496 476 -4.0 MT : 18 19 88 95 8.0 NE : 60 60 266 279 4.9 NV : 25 25 125 137 9.6 NH : 16 16 78 80 2.6 NJ : 12 12 52 50 -3.8 NM : 327 324 1,734 1,780 2.7 NY : 656 646 2,999 3,116 3.9 NC : 57 54 259 251 -3.1 ND : 34 33 136 135 -0.7 OH : 263 270 1,179 1,228 4.2 OK : 79 75 329 321 -2.4 OR : 120 121 585 591 1.0 PA : 558 564 2,597 2,745 5.7 RI : 1.2 1.0 5.2 4.9 -5.8 SC : 17 18 76 79 3.9 SD : 81 81 343 371 8.2 TN : 76 71 310 300 -3.2 TX : 318 320 1,587 1,704 7.4 UT : 87 89 409 417 2.0 VT : 145 144 656 688 4.9 VA : 105 105 447 466 4.3 WA : 239 240 1,386 1,440 3.9 WV : 13 13 49 49 WI : 1,242 1,234 5,625 5,861 4.2 WY : 4.2 4.5 16.0 17.1 6.9 : US 3/ : 9,001 9,034 43,824 45,660 4.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Milk Cows and Production: By State and United States, Preliminary July-September, 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Jul-Sep Milk Cows 1/ : Jul-Sep Milk Production 2/ : Change State :-----------------------------------------------------------: From : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ----- ---- Million Pounds --- Percent : AL : 17 16 52 47 -9.6 AK : 1.2 1.1 3.8 3.4 -10.5 AZ : 162 161 839 871 3.8 AR : 24 22 74 69 -6.8 CA : 1,733 1,763 9,133 9,360 2.5 CO : 103 105 550 610 10.9 CT : 20 20 95 92 -3.2 DE : 7.0 7.5 29.0 32.3 11.4 FL : 138 135 495 496 0.2 GA : 84 81 319 309 -3.1 HI : 6.0 5.3 19.0 17.4 -8.4 ID : 430 466 2,358 2,684 13.8 IL : 107 104 476 473 -0.6 IN : 150 156 718 778 8.4 IA : 192 187 937 931 -0.6 KS : 115 112 549 564 2.7 KY : 110 106 341 327 -4.1 LA : 37 34 101 87 -13.9 ME : 34 33 156 151 -3.2 MD : 73 72 277 281 1.4 MA : 17 16 73 72 -1.4 MI : 303 313 1,580 1,685 6.6 MN : 465 453 1,984 2,018 1.7 MS : 27 25 80 81 1.3 MO : 121 116 436 407 -6.7 MT : 18 19 88 96 9.1 NE : 61 60 254 264 3.9 NV : 25 25 129 137 6.2 NH : 16 16 74 74 NJ : 12 12 49 47 -4.1 NM : 327 331 1,693 1,778 5.0 NY : 655 648 2,907 3,053 5.0 NC : 56 54 241 233 -3.3 ND : 34 32 134 132 -1.5 OH : 266 270 1,128 1,175 4.2 OK : 77 75 307 311 1.3 OR : 120 121 581 583 0.3 PA : 560 561 2,465 2,630 6.7 RI : 1.1 1.1 4.7 4.7 SC : 17 17 63 63 SD : 80 81 333 358 7.5 TN : 75 69 265 250 -5.7 TX : 320 320 1,412 1,552 9.9 UT : 88 88 416 427 2.6 VT : 145 143 645 656 1.7 VA : 104 105 415 426 2.7 WA : 236 242 1,356 1,433 5.7 WV : 13 13 47 48 2.1 WI : 1,240 1,236 5,541 5,829 5.2 WY : 4.3 5.0 16.3 18.5 13.5 : US 3/ : 9,027 9,054 42,239 44,024 4.2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3/ May not add due to rounding. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.05 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------- Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.0 44,024 197 65 362 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.6 5,432 21 2 61 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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