Da 1-1 (11-05) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released November 16, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Milk Production call Ann Summa at 202-720-3278, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Special Note Estimates for 2004 November, December, and Annual Milk Production have been corrected to the originally published final estimates in the February 17, 2005 Milk Production publication. Estimates for these months were printed incorrectly in the August, September and October 2005 Milk Production publications. October Milk Production Up 4.1 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during October totaled 13.4 billion pounds, up 4.1 percent from October 2004. September revised production, at 13.0 billion pounds, was up 4.7 percent from September 2004. The September revision represented a decrease of 27 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,636 pounds for October, 53 pounds above October 2004. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.16 million head, 58,000 head more than October 2004, and 4,000 head more than September 2005. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 8,993 8,996 4,755 4,807 42,759 43,242 1.1 Apr-Jun : 9,001 9,034 4,869 5,054 43,824 45,660 4.2 Jul-Sep : 9,027 9,054 4,679 4,859 42,239 43,997 4.2 Oct-Dec : 9,019 4,655 41,983 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,044 8,083 1,624 1,640 13,061 13,258 1.5 Feb : 8,051 8,076 1,531 1,519 12,329 12,270 -0.5 Mar : 8,059 8,095 1,661 1,702 13,387 13,779 2.9 Apr : 8,063 8,109 1,636 1,683 13,194 13,647 3.4 May : 8,064 8,121 1,692 1,757 13,641 14,266 4.6 Jun : 8,083 8,132 1,607 1,686 12,988 13,712 5.6 Jul : 8,096 8,145 1,623 1,681 13,143 13,692 4.2 Aug : 8,102 8,157 1,601 1,667 12,970 13,595 4.8 Sep : 8,104 8,157 1,533 1,594 12,426 13,005 4.7 Oct : 8,103 8,161 1,583 1,636 12,824 13,353 4.1 Nov : 8,102 1,531 12,404 Dec : 8,097 1,610 13,037 : Annual : 8,081 19,232 155,404 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,985 8,995 1,603 1,622 14,402 14,586 1.3 Feb : 8,993 8,984 1,512 1,502 13,595 13,498 -0.7 Mar : 9,002 9,009 1,640 1,683 14,762 15,158 2.7 Apr : 8,999 9,023 1,613 1,659 14,519 14,970 3.1 May : 8,991 9,034 1,670 1,732 15,012 15,650 4.2 Jun : 9,014 9,044 1,586 1,663 14,293 15,040 5.2 Jul : 9,028 9,047 1,596 1,654 14,405 14,950 3.8 Aug : 9,029 9,057 1,574 1,637 14,215 14,844 4.4 Sep : 9,025 9,057 1,509 1,571 13,619 14,203 4.3 Oct : 9,023 9,059 1,559 1,617 14,070 14,651 4.1 Nov : 9,021 1,509 13,610 Dec : 9,013 1,587 14,303 : Annual : 9,010 18,957 170,805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, October 2004-2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 167 161 1,785 1,840 298 296 -0.7 CA : 1,740 1,770 1,770 1,780 3,080 3,151 2.3 CO : 103 106 1,785 1,870 184 198 7.6 FL : 137 135 1,165 1,175 160 159 -0.6 ID : 434 470 1,800 1,880 781 884 13.2 IL : 106 104 1,480 1,510 157 157 IN : 152 155 1,585 1,685 241 261 8.3 IA : 191 187 1,640 1,640 313 307 -1.9 KS : 114 112 1,590 1,715 181 192 6.1 KY : 109 103 1,035 1,030 113 106 -6.2 MI : 304 312 1,730 1,790 526 558 6.1 MN : 460 450 1,425 1,470 656 662 0.9 MO : 120 114 1,230 1,200 148 137 -7.4 NM : 323 335 1,690 1,760 546 590 8.1 NY : 653 650 1,470 1,550 960 1,008 5.0 OH : 266 270 1,410 1,440 375 389 3.7 OR : 120 121 1,575 1,590 189 192 1.6 PA : 563 558 1,465 1,550 825 865 4.8 TX : 320 320 1,470 1,605 470 514 9.4 VT : 145 142 1,455 1,505 211 214 1.4 VA : 104 105 1,355 1,370 141 144 2.1 WA : 234 244 1,895 1,925 443 470 6.1 WI : 1,238 1,237 1,475 1,535 1,826 1,899 4.0 : 23-State : Total : 8,103 8,161 1,583 1,636 12,824 13,353 4.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, September 2004-2005 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : 2004 : 2005 : From : : : : : : : 2004 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 165 161 1,660 1,740 274 280 2.2 CA : 1,737 1,765 1,715 1,745 2,979 3,080 3.4 CO : 103 106 1,750 1,870 180 198 10.0 FL : 137 134 1,025 1,100 140 147 5.0 ID : 431 469 1,780 1,850 767 868 13.2 IL : 107 104 1,440 1,450 154 151 -1.9 IN : 150 156 1,540 1,615 231 252 9.1 IA : 191 187 1,580 1,590 302 297 -1.7 KS : 115 112 1,550 1,650 178 185 3.9 KY : 109 105 990 980 108 103 -4.6 MI : 303 312 1,670 1,735 506 541 6.9 MN : 465 450 1,365 1,435 635 646 1.7 MO : 121 115 1,150 1,100 139 127 -8.6 NM : 325 333 1,670 1,710 543 569 4.8 NY : 654 649 1,420 1,515 929 983 5.8 OH : 266 270 1,370 1,410 364 381 4.7 OR : 120 121 1,565 1,550 188 188 PA : 562 561 1,415 1,500 795 842 5.9 TX : 320 320 1,405 1,515 450 485 7.8 VT : 145 142 1,430 1,480 207 210 1.4 VA : 104 105 1,290 1,325 134 139 3.7 WA : 235 243 1,870 1,915 439 465 5.9 WI : 1,239 1,237 1,440 1,510 1,784 1,868 4.7 : 23-State : Total : 8,104 8,157 1,533 1,594 12,426 13,005 4.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 July-September quarters is 0.6 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final July-September estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.05 million head by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 1.0 percent. Reliability of July-September Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------- Number : Milk : Production : 0.6 1.0 43,997 197 65 362 8 2 : Percent --------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.3 0.6 5,432 21 2 61 7 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 July-September quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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