Da 1-1 (6-06) Milk Production National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C. Released June 16, 2006, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Milk Production" call Charmaine Wilson at 202-690-2168, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. May Milk Production Up 2.8 Percent Milk production in the 23 major States during May totaled 14.7 billion pounds, up 2.8 percent from May 2005. April revised production, at 14.2 billion pounds, was up 3.7 percent from April 2005. The April revision represented a decrease of 2 million pounds from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,782 pounds for May, 22 pounds above May 2005. The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.26 million head, 128,000 head more than May 2005, and 19,000 head more than April 2006. Milk Cows and Production: By Quarter, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Quarter : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan-Mar : 9,002 9,093 4,816 5,009 43,350 45,546 5.1 Apr-Jun : 9,041 5,069 45,831 Jul-Sep : 9,060 4,871 44,134 Oct-Dec : 9,060 4,821 43,674 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- Month : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : from : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 8,087 8,195 1,643 1,710 13,287 14,014 5.5 Feb : 8,084 8,206 1,522 1,587 12,301 13,022 5.9 Mar : 8,099 8,228 1,707 1,775 13,825 14,604 5.6 Apr : 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 3.7 May : 8,131 8,259 1,760 1,782 14,311 14,714 2.8 Jun : 8,138 1,690 13,755 Jul : 8,151 1,683 13,715 Aug : 8,162 1,671 13,640 Sep : 8,167 1,599 13,057 Oct : 8,168 1,637 13,373 Nov : 8,167 1,592 13,002 Dec : 8,179 1,663 13,599 : Annual : 8,138 19,857 161,582 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Estimated Milk Cows and Production: By Month, United States, 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk Per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : : : : : Change Month : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds ---- Million Pounds Percent : Jan : 9,000 9,078 1,624 1,689 14,614 15,333 4.9 Feb : 8,996 9,090 1,504 1,567 13,530 14,244 5.3 Mar : 9,009 9,111 1,688 1,753 15,206 15,972 5.0 Apr : 9,030 9,125 1,666 1,702 15,047 15,531 3.2 May : 9,042 9,145 1,735 1,757 15,697 16,068 2.4 Jun : 9,050 1,668 15,087 Jul : 9,053 1,656 14,978 Aug : 9,060 1,643 14,896 Sep : 9,066 1,572 14,260 Oct : 9,060 1,613 14,611 Nov : 9,056 1,569 14,205 Dec : 9,063 1,639 14,858 : Annual : 9,041 19,576 176,989 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, May 2005-2006 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 1/ : Milk Per Cow 2/ : Milk Production 2/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 163 173 2,085 2,145 340 371 9.1 CA : 1,751 1,785 1,880 1,890 3,292 3,374 2.5 CO : 104 109 1,950 2,000 203 218 7.4 FL : 138 133 1,580 1,600 218 213 -2.3 ID : 445 485 1,930 1,930 859 936 9.0 IL : 104 103 1,660 1,690 173 174 0.6 IN : 157 166 1,800 1,750 283 291 2.8 IA : 193 200 1,845 1,790 356 358 0.6 KS : 112 113 1,815 1,870 203 211 3.9 KY : 107 99 1,195 1,260 128 125 -2.3 MI : 312 319 1,915 1,910 597 609 2.0 MN : 455 450 1,610 1,635 733 736 0.4 MO : 119 116 1,490 1,470 177 171 -3.4 NM : 323 356 1,880 1,980 607 705 16.1 NY : 646 648 1,665 1,660 1,076 1,076 OH : 270 273 1,595 1,600 431 437 1.4 OR : 121 121 1,660 1,550 201 188 -6.5 PA : 565 556 1,675 1,700 946 945 -0.1 TX : 320 330 1,830 1,970 586 650 10.9 VT : 144 142 1,650 1,630 238 231 -2.9 VA : 105 103 1,535 1,545 161 159 -1.2 WA : 243 237 2,025 2,025 492 480 -2.4 WI : 1,234 1,242 1,630 1,655 2,011 2,056 2.2 : 23-State : Total : 8,131 8,259 1,760 1,782 14,311 14,714 2.8 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Milk Cows and Production: By State, April 2005-2006 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Milk Cows 2/ : Milk per Cow 3/ : Milk Production 3/ :--------------------------------------------------------------------- State : : : : : : : Change : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : 2005 : 2006 : From : : : : : : : 2005 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head ---- Pounds --- Million Pounds Percent : AZ : 164 172 2,060 2,145 338 369 9.2 CA : 1,747 1,785 1,825 1,855 3,188 3,311 3.9 CO : 103 108 1,865 1,910 192 206 7.3 FL : 138 133 1,570 1,590 217 211 -2.8 ID : 443 478 1,850 1,850 820 884 7.8 IL : 105 103 1,605 1,650 169 170 0.6 IN : 157 165 1,780 1,715 279 283 1.4 IA : 192 200 1,775 1,765 341 353 3.5 KS : 111 112 1,755 1,810 195 203 4.1 KY : 107 99 1,150 1,230 123 122 -0.8 MI : 311 317 1,830 1,855 569 588 3.3 MN : 455 450 1,540 1,575 701 709 1.1 MO : 119 116 1,430 1,500 170 174 2.4 NM : 323 350 1,780 1,875 575 656 14.1 NY : 646 649 1,565 1,590 1,011 1,032 2.1 OH : 269 273 1,520 1,530 409 418 2.2 OR : 121 121 1,610 1,490 195 180 -7.7 PA : 563 557 1,600 1,650 901 919 2.0 TX : 319 328 1,780 1,935 568 635 11.8 VT : 144 143 1,570 1,560 226 223 -1.3 VA : 105 103 1,485 1,540 156 159 1.9 WA : 241 237 1,965 1,950 474 462 -2.5 WI : 1,234 1,241 1,540 1,580 1,900 1,961 3.2 : 23-State : Total : 8,117 8,240 1,690 1,727 13,717 14,228 3.7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ 2005 and 2006 revised. 2/ Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 3/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. Reliability Statement Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data, rather than conduct a monthly or quarterly survey, to estimate milk production. This eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July Cattle Surveys. Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness. Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date. Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness. To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for milk cow inventory estimates over the past 10 January - March quarters is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final January - March estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 9.09 million head by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent. Reliability of January-March Milk Estimates 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : : : Difference Between : Quarters : Root : 90% : First and Latest :--------------- : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Percent ------- Million Pounds ------ Number : Milk : Production : 0.4 0.7 319 135 10 375 5 5 : Percent -------- 1,000 Head -------- Number : All Milk : Cows : 0.2 0.3 27 12 2 35 5 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Based on records for the past 10 January-March quarters. ACCESS TO REPORTS!! For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services: INTERNET ACCESS All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. 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